tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-86535479805499192882024-03-19T11:30:10.195+11:00The Wooden FingerTroy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.comBlogger1022125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-23593146255844856072024-03-18T22:59:00.002+11:002024-03-19T11:29:38.482+11:00AFL Rankings: Round 1 2024<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI1Oc8Nf99W_7uymAdsTeyZQHZmdALdRUQAjbzhUkP7IyUHRTIKgSW9Ai6LS54hZmpCNEaN-hj04hKWF_2DeLDBwPI0yj6In51FV1DJcmvOn156agkiYxq3k4MOUC3GIUlBqj9pkQaIbvImORDPltFv3euxghSsYKejkOvkkCcGy53bhPLCMBv1nDXwTRZ/s948/AFL%20R1%202024%20Rankings.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="948" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI1Oc8Nf99W_7uymAdsTeyZQHZmdALdRUQAjbzhUkP7IyUHRTIKgSW9Ai6LS54hZmpCNEaN-hj04hKWF_2DeLDBwPI0yj6In51FV1DJcmvOn156agkiYxq3k4MOUC3GIUlBqj9pkQaIbvImORDPltFv3euxghSsYKejkOvkkCcGy53bhPLCMBv1nDXwTRZ/w640-h458/AFL%20R1%202024%20Rankings.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_SKtsFNIBbdKnz9bMPPoeN0ks8FpX7OjYscPU4pAKniiQ_rIMFyqbcFsucvvNfBk_c5g5D0rz5okNyzvdhAFRq7EQXCEJLDsJ8FRj6RzYfaEbzq-LMxjzki1lffvp6_sWDpU0_xOFQYyamUznEBC6qVtiKA80Jp4sZ7p1O33iKpW2Dd5XSzkgCquxSooF/s2013/AFL%20R1%202024%20Statistics.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="2013" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_SKtsFNIBbdKnz9bMPPoeN0ks8FpX7OjYscPU4pAKniiQ_rIMFyqbcFsucvvNfBk_c5g5D0rz5okNyzvdhAFRq7EQXCEJLDsJ8FRj6RzYfaEbzq-LMxjzki1lffvp6_sWDpU0_xOFQYyamUznEBC6qVtiKA80Jp4sZ7p1O33iKpW2Dd5XSzkgCquxSooF/w640-h234/AFL%20R1%202024%20Statistics.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">For
the first time ever, the two teams in the previous year’s Grand Final –
Collingwood and Brisbane – have started the season with two losses. Weaknesses
have been scrutinized, long bows are being drawn, but how bad is it really for
last year’s top two teams?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">First
off, Brisbane were only two points away from winning their first match against
Carlton – granted, giving up a 46 point lead isn’t encouraging, but they were
moments away from currently being 1-1. Even then, Carlton’s accuracy is front
of goal (13.8) helped them get over the line. Similarly, Collingwood were
subject to exceptionally good accuracy in front of goal from their first-up
opponent GWS (18.6).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Their
second matches (in Round 1, naturally) were more concerning. Collingwood lost
by five goals to Sydney, and didn’t look much like winning after the first
quarter. Brisbane too fell away after the first quarter to lose by four goals
to Fremantle.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Brisbane’s
main concern so far has been converting forward entries into scores. They have
had 21 more inside 50s than their opponents across their two games so far, but
have had only two more scoring shots, and they rank fourth-last for scoring
shots per inside 50. Two-time All-Australian forward Charlie Cameron has had a
rough start to the year, with only 3.5 uncontested possessions per game (career
average 6.5), and 45 per cent disposal efficiency (career average 63.7) –
figures you would be almost sure he will improve upon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Collingwood
have been fairly even with their opponents across the board, except for one
percenters – and obviously goals. Given the two teams they have faced – GWS and
Sydney – may be the two most in-form teams at the moment, that could be viewed
as slightly encouraging. In their premiership season too however, they were
never really streets ahead of their opposition, with at most modest positive
differentials in the main statistical categories, except notably accuracy in
front of goal. Their performances so far may just indicate they were only a
small step away from falling back into the pack.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">That
fine line extends now to the Lions’ and Magpies’ finals hopes. With the top
half of teams closely bunched in terms of expected performance, a couple of
losses now puts them in significantly more jeopardy of missing out. Conversely
though, that also means it will only take a few wins to significantly improve
their chances again. Grand Finals are obviously where everyone wants to end up,
but they can exaggerate the gaps between teams – Collingwood and Brisbane were
less the two dominant forces of last year than they were among a bunch of solid
contenders that could have, without much surprise, made it through to the final
week.</span></p></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguekK9w2Ad9tXC8t2qrhnTtBMMyh_eyvRCvuEsW1Qp7ph5qXf-LBS95PlQJSsEIdK-wm0k4f7kwuUMsVxCuZN1Ai6SrpzQx7DYqlOow6JE5UTlwaoio2iDaGgz70zZ5B09DNereoxhJk7vgdqUZYPDTaK2_s4TC3SUryDBWbqxbzT8gNqZ1_zCNHRysgmY/s1245/AFL%20R2%202024%20Predictions.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1245" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguekK9w2Ad9tXC8t2qrhnTtBMMyh_eyvRCvuEsW1Qp7ph5qXf-LBS95PlQJSsEIdK-wm0k4f7kwuUMsVxCuZN1Ai6SrpzQx7DYqlOow6JE5UTlwaoio2iDaGgz70zZ5B09DNereoxhJk7vgdqUZYPDTaK2_s4TC3SUryDBWbqxbzT8gNqZ1_zCNHRysgmY/w640-h214/AFL%20R2%202024%20Predictions.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-50773449899224624892024-03-10T13:07:00.001+11:002024-03-12T12:52:50.616+11:00AFL Rankings: Opening Round 2024<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYSuSDLhSaEudfFest0SBinDlIz8HEH95ksAXoeON8jTVd2O9ioiHMQ5XscXMVvAnYvWYcdmunPAH-arVvQd-Qem9_xbDI1Ay9k9LjGRFwgFGg9aKDl_gDZTMUMp8mD0jJC0dbsT5ILjWleYBdDVRGw_JdV6Me1zzunAsUDSGZvOxrjnlfo19gl0yn6W31/s948/AFL%20R0%202024%20Rankings.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="948" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYSuSDLhSaEudfFest0SBinDlIz8HEH95ksAXoeON8jTVd2O9ioiHMQ5XscXMVvAnYvWYcdmunPAH-arVvQd-Qem9_xbDI1Ay9k9LjGRFwgFGg9aKDl_gDZTMUMp8mD0jJC0dbsT5ILjWleYBdDVRGw_JdV6Me1zzunAsUDSGZvOxrjnlfo19gl0yn6W31/w640-h458/AFL%20R0%202024%20Rankings.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj01cCj8hVfUx6LRmks7szp42PAfC1L6TEKWIg0Dsq26N48PEYTbv5VfAp_z4HI4mJZDPpPCDKs4TlYdAAAUmHm1JvUCE5yb3iF_RE16SrrIraR9Ei6mD8POqvDQaAQSP2dp3jgjhHlqi4_3rUb8Hjd4sF2tV4F5fXnoihe-G3ytOZVLcI4wUwNu-eqaAxc/s2013/AFL%20R0%202024%20Statistics.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="418" data-original-width="2013" height="132" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj01cCj8hVfUx6LRmks7szp42PAfC1L6TEKWIg0Dsq26N48PEYTbv5VfAp_z4HI4mJZDPpPCDKs4TlYdAAAUmHm1JvUCE5yb3iF_RE16SrrIraR9Ei6mD8POqvDQaAQSP2dp3jgjhHlqi4_3rUb8Hjd4sF2tV4F5fXnoihe-G3ytOZVLcI4wUwNu-eqaAxc/w640-h132/AFL%20R0%202024%20Statistics.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFhlIsIGgrD2uaQWCZHMjgFwJ7_BjDo_RXF7Hq1snGlLy1GxvKG6TWKmGQZw1_3eyXMbjNoEgX1jEGU_MbhSuu8YR3SxDjIDCPs3XDcIoFBzl35bOFb9k7iZs99uUXT0AyOopfWX4ys57bXDGn68nEflU_3HIbgv-OOdkqMQt_v3iihwQMPQbQ5ijfz1ZO/s1245/AFL%20R1%202024%20Predictions.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1245" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFhlIsIGgrD2uaQWCZHMjgFwJ7_BjDo_RXF7Hq1snGlLy1GxvKG6TWKmGQZw1_3eyXMbjNoEgX1jEGU_MbhSuu8YR3SxDjIDCPs3XDcIoFBzl35bOFb9k7iZs99uUXT0AyOopfWX4ys57bXDGn68nEflU_3HIbgv-OOdkqMQt_v3iihwQMPQbQ5ijfz1ZO/w640-h214/AFL%20R1%202024%20Predictions.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">For the rankings this year, I have made some slight adjustments to the home ground advantages. To come up with the new values, I had a look at win-loss records by state, historical betting odds and margins, and advantages in other ranking systems.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">The 'default' home ground advantage has now been re-set to eight points. Matches between teams in the same city still have a home ground advantage of zero. At the other end, I've kept the advantage involving Western Australian teams - which involve much higher travel distances - at 12 points.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">I've applied these new advantages to the 2023 results as well, so the ranking points for teams were slightly adjusted from the end of last year even before the 'opening round' matches.</div><p></p><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-29589734030849732312023-12-04T20:54:00.002+11:002023-12-06T10:57:50.866+11:00AFLW Rankings: Finals 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJjr82kG-PYP2tQyg1qJTVjF1Bp1lQtq2QZ-lqJSl9L_uW79rZCAacqv9q4juhVnxPs6gd1RVZHsfivqAsY_2WDLhtA8Qrnt1g_KjzQq09QGyl4FNpZfl1io7eOXn8xBkQg-T4x3DQPkRJLRs7CMIhcOZejCOArYJ-4unoWVH2B2KnUYZPyAPoqxFnmN5S/s1139/AFLW%20Rankings%20Finals%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="1139" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJjr82kG-PYP2tQyg1qJTVjF1Bp1lQtq2QZ-lqJSl9L_uW79rZCAacqv9q4juhVnxPs6gd1RVZHsfivqAsY_2WDLhtA8Qrnt1g_KjzQq09QGyl4FNpZfl1io7eOXn8xBkQg-T4x3DQPkRJLRs7CMIhcOZejCOArYJ-4unoWVH2B2KnUYZPyAPoqxFnmN5S/w640-h380/AFLW%20Rankings%20Finals%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOrQRGJuD60NNDeQ8W7d_pSM52SYHNDs3dKwl31YU6IVac5KkveymDo3LhR-eWPZElcKVjVBj_iwlw38SaHzXUcs2d532mdgLYhePE75vXrxLXQon19XTTY4ewFtC_kk7YvsxXp5M6sdlj5PHXqxt-4AXaimfTkMZiNQ-JE-fGlQ7fdCqmPMlzvuyz1HX2/s1993/AFLW%20Statistics%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1993" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOrQRGJuD60NNDeQ8W7d_pSM52SYHNDs3dKwl31YU6IVac5KkveymDo3LhR-eWPZElcKVjVBj_iwlw38SaHzXUcs2d532mdgLYhePE75vXrxLXQon19XTTY4ewFtC_kk7YvsxXp5M6sdlj5PHXqxt-4AXaimfTkMZiNQ-JE-fGlQ7fdCqmPMlzvuyz1HX2/w640-h236/AFLW%20Statistics%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
Brisbane Lions have won their second AFLW premiership (from their fifth Grand
Final), and despite finishing fourth after the home-and-away season, it wasn’t
much of a surprise. The top four teams – Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne,
and Brisbane – were all rated similarly heading into the finals, and in line
with this we saw a few close finishes in games during the finals series. There
were some surprises along the way though.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">First,
Brisbane kicked seven goals in the Grand Final against North Melbourne from
only 21 entries inside 50. The Roos’ defence had been stellar during the 2023
season, conceding less than four goals per game, and being the only team to
concede less points per game than inside 50s (see Statistics table above). The
Lions were seemingly well-beaten in the midfield, with 13 less inside 50s and
18 less clearances. But they found ways to stop the repeated entries into their
defence, amassing 109 tackles (over 30 more than the Roos, and the Lions’
season average), and to score from their limited opportunities going forward.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">In the
end the Lions don’t quite finish the season as the top team on the rankings,
but they are certainly one of the best teams in the competition. Like Adelaide
and North Melbourne – and Melbourne until recently, more on which below – they
were clearly stronger across the board than most of the league. A few
unexpected losses to lower teams meant they had to do it a slightly harder way
in the finals by beating Adelaide and North Melbourne away, but there would not
have been many who thought they didn’t have the credentials to give it a good
shake at least.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
main surprises of the finals series though were the significant changes in form
of Melbourne and Geelong. Reigning premiers Melbourne had been a scoring
machine during the 2023 season but could manage only nine points in their first
final against North Melbourne. The Demons then faced Geelong the next week and
kicked only one goal and trailed by 30 points at three quarter-time. They
finally recaptured their offensive power in the final quarter by piling on five
goals, but ultimately lost by five points.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">After
knocking off the reigning premiers, Geelong continued their impressive form by
coming close to beating Brisbane at home. They lost by only four points,
although like Brisbane in the Grand Final, they were helped by their scoring
efficiency when inside 50. The end result is that Melbourne slipped away from
Brisbane, North, and Adelaide in the rankings, and were replaced in the top
four by the Cats. While it’s a little strange to see Melbourne end up there
after being so dominant during the season, based on their finals form it’s hard
to argue.</span></p></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-51075024091608288172023-11-05T20:26:00.005+11:002023-11-05T22:19:30.972+11:00AFLW Rankings: Round 10 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTv87_URwh__I90P6tMMBLcwKaSPwsEmJqGhxamBR7PDvy_72v39Q6N7_6xSt74i041qQFlG6G24vA81bFguU8NfAYNZLsz1cls6T2I04_KjVTLl2RLfHMFn4Itwe6xOtzzhByRd_OJ8pBPUzCHv6uVlXU0KH5w5QJ7fe9xQoiuTV8aIUQXODVAYLyAVmt/s1139/AFLW%20Rankings%20R10%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="1139" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTv87_URwh__I90P6tMMBLcwKaSPwsEmJqGhxamBR7PDvy_72v39Q6N7_6xSt74i041qQFlG6G24vA81bFguU8NfAYNZLsz1cls6T2I04_KjVTLl2RLfHMFn4Itwe6xOtzzhByRd_OJ8pBPUzCHv6uVlXU0KH5w5QJ7fe9xQoiuTV8aIUQXODVAYLyAVmt/w640-h380/AFLW%20Rankings%20R10%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHrPMuOxVlHh2k_d7EE57WJIWxsTaF7NpUwoYnZ5ZdVKKcZNCPi4xs-8c4hSO5ZtnZu6JT0rqGqF_3ZfQUS93sMqWWtuRL9kPcUwU2WEITuxgVzrkjjl88ahL2qyeLwU0vNDdwSxtrjtR2J6d7vRbZn9LcVtPYPWFxh7E9clGu9jKwQJ0yOusx0WA7TLDB/s1993/AFLW%20Statistics%20R10%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1993" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHrPMuOxVlHh2k_d7EE57WJIWxsTaF7NpUwoYnZ5ZdVKKcZNCPi4xs-8c4hSO5ZtnZu6JT0rqGqF_3ZfQUS93sMqWWtuRL9kPcUwU2WEITuxgVzrkjjl88ahL2qyeLwU0vNDdwSxtrjtR2J6d7vRbZn9LcVtPYPWFxh7E9clGu9jKwQJ0yOusx0WA7TLDB/w640-h236/AFLW%20Statistics%20R10%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">It’s been
fairly clear to most serious AFLW followers from early on this season that
there are four top teams, and then the ‘rest’: Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne,
and Brisbane. None of these would be a surprise to win the premiership. In a
close finals series, the results may to a significant extent come down to home
ground advantage.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><b><u>Rankings finals predictions:</u></b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Elimination
Finals:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> Gold Coast defeat Sydney, Geelong
defeat Essendon<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Qualifying
Finals:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> Adelaide defeat Brisbane,
Melbourne defeat North Melbourne<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Semi-Finals:
</span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Brisbane defeat Gold Coast, North Melbourne defeat
Geelong<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Preliminary
Finals: </span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Adelaide defeat North Melbourne,
Melbourne defeat Brisbane</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-AU; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Grand Final:</span></b><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-align: center;"> Adelaide defeat
Melbourne (barely)</span></p></div><p></p><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-76444479012236293082023-10-30T22:44:00.000+11:002023-10-30T22:44:02.567+11:00AFLW Rankings: Round 9 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9k3Lqywgc0ym4A7zxTm2GhedlRPxDlpP_C19c9wF5sswWCsDrUFbV54t9uSdtPc7OJzONEGzRfoyOcZkIgdguGE1L8GnGI93BcfiAd-syXw0B2vRF7RgMrTBhdpkLYrslFskbrOeWfzR6XdEl8V7tmLePbzCmTPqsjH89z8ZhEwzqUDzvKRF7ioD34h-V/s1139/AFLW%20Rankings%20R9%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="1139" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9k3Lqywgc0ym4A7zxTm2GhedlRPxDlpP_C19c9wF5sswWCsDrUFbV54t9uSdtPc7OJzONEGzRfoyOcZkIgdguGE1L8GnGI93BcfiAd-syXw0B2vRF7RgMrTBhdpkLYrslFskbrOeWfzR6XdEl8V7tmLePbzCmTPqsjH89z8ZhEwzqUDzvKRF7ioD34h-V/w640-h380/AFLW%20Rankings%20R9%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0LIFg3kg-e-QktZjOZjZHq55TX9ENoXprOE3Zf_r7ONKe-Lb6xs0gg4oeoZgU9Jz97YKvngtSpElAFNGisG32FWfuBMMr_QM7tGy9Pt5Ad-b3qyu1vNxX87bzUhop3_f5vf0jZhJvPX9NupLIdJ3hpd9flheX82l9gPycEwSDaT562kLdNdJ42nk6F-tN/s1993/AFLW%20Statistics%20R9%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1993" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0LIFg3kg-e-QktZjOZjZHq55TX9ENoXprOE3Zf_r7ONKe-Lb6xs0gg4oeoZgU9Jz97YKvngtSpElAFNGisG32FWfuBMMr_QM7tGy9Pt5Ad-b3qyu1vNxX87bzUhop3_f5vf0jZhJvPX9NupLIdJ3hpd9flheX82l9gPycEwSDaT562kLdNdJ42nk6F-tN/w640-h236/AFLW%20Statistics%20R9%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRtClYesXgRcEKi1zjV4dFYKWaSZ-qUeImsgHq_TIfmKM9pIIvpofoy64TDLykx4-MYmkssIXDRygxLqERKwC9HfHvObgoXU9eE5VAqXObyQqrT_1vWgTJt5peOldM8vyITMXqPNV5idkqy6qWTRd4X3nCS2SCczNApI2cfUEibfl-guOXRRJUTxwJTbgY/s1010/AFLW%20Predictions%20R10%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1010" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRtClYesXgRcEKi1zjV4dFYKWaSZ-qUeImsgHq_TIfmKM9pIIvpofoy64TDLykx4-MYmkssIXDRygxLqERKwC9HfHvObgoXU9eE5VAqXObyQqrT_1vWgTJt5peOldM8vyITMXqPNV5idkqy6qWTRd4X3nCS2SCczNApI2cfUEibfl-guOXRRJUTxwJTbgY/w640-h262/AFLW%20Predictions%20R10%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-24400874315377389062023-10-22T21:24:00.001+11:002023-10-22T21:24:05.849+11:00AFLW Rankings: Round 8 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsFL3nOufr8Dyavv1n81oNhcyG_CP1ybTLm3d5uahOxIhHi7UNZrscDGR9m7ghlyneMJhoLXpFFop_ny0PAmDI0lPxAP9_SuRWAn3KvhPuuHzdEdB7ZVj0cpDrYeXJCdDlO7rxveysdY-JEomoqlVR7EzkrkZO1e8sFKIGppsoDkGK0eBiyde9G_e5XtTJ/s1139/AFLW%20Rankings%20R8%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="1139" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsFL3nOufr8Dyavv1n81oNhcyG_CP1ybTLm3d5uahOxIhHi7UNZrscDGR9m7ghlyneMJhoLXpFFop_ny0PAmDI0lPxAP9_SuRWAn3KvhPuuHzdEdB7ZVj0cpDrYeXJCdDlO7rxveysdY-JEomoqlVR7EzkrkZO1e8sFKIGppsoDkGK0eBiyde9G_e5XtTJ/w640-h380/AFLW%20Rankings%20R8%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj-jQRslgtoVRkfwYHu-LH8OqMRInD68qgkPgRAhCDG8Pb3SWpNYdfdhsUo3ojNapHP-r91JhX6j0-po_VmSrppCyNvnSdYua8iA8_t5nmbGxcozfVPkPX_EmTk8feEfdMQT2yDMgyZtFzT8_Jae27F7Cf_nquKrdTW2tWdqPOdxKj_zcT2wqh48mKTRXt/s1993/AFLW%20Statistics%20R8%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1993" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj-jQRslgtoVRkfwYHu-LH8OqMRInD68qgkPgRAhCDG8Pb3SWpNYdfdhsUo3ojNapHP-r91JhX6j0-po_VmSrppCyNvnSdYua8iA8_t5nmbGxcozfVPkPX_EmTk8feEfdMQT2yDMgyZtFzT8_Jae27F7Cf_nquKrdTW2tWdqPOdxKj_zcT2wqh48mKTRXt/w640-h236/AFLW%20Statistics%20R8%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDomf7_4aJyhYrGBmVelejyI3VmqbuL9H6E5p3LNpKxNpm2E9uRAu-dYP5Cv4Nh6ZAxrvc4Bo14zPAySulB0hWlQT5fwgjQt-0gs_6E1a3WVZTNJHR6cPhGZQaKyExFpOV0yig89_toYYErTSjPBUEbRG-OnQePf2tC-RqSvqJtYjZ1nqZF3gUgQII4AGG/s1010/AFLW%20Predictions%20R9%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1010" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDomf7_4aJyhYrGBmVelejyI3VmqbuL9H6E5p3LNpKxNpm2E9uRAu-dYP5Cv4Nh6ZAxrvc4Bo14zPAySulB0hWlQT5fwgjQt-0gs_6E1a3WVZTNJHR6cPhGZQaKyExFpOV0yig89_toYYErTSjPBUEbRG-OnQePf2tC-RqSvqJtYjZ1nqZF3gUgQII4AGG/w640-h262/AFLW%20Predictions%20R9%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-91862614412349508402023-10-15T19:19:00.003+11:002023-10-15T19:19:26.668+11:00AFLW Rankings: Round 7 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoNu7f50Wzm3_jPIduzP-LBgt1-wxOi9D5od8sVLSH2plZEz_j5dnKVrYvtL65PsTtN7sWFhh_ne1jLCXGlikzri_kJMEV0R2wykyTPIPKFKeBlInhezyj1AIuOtvlqbZb52oA-iaoxjnW8p9adYtE8WX7fPrs6HJ7PLgmlX9OBbSdPncsLgodC-kF2uSN/s1139/AFLW%20Rankings%20R7%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="1139" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoNu7f50Wzm3_jPIduzP-LBgt1-wxOi9D5od8sVLSH2plZEz_j5dnKVrYvtL65PsTtN7sWFhh_ne1jLCXGlikzri_kJMEV0R2wykyTPIPKFKeBlInhezyj1AIuOtvlqbZb52oA-iaoxjnW8p9adYtE8WX7fPrs6HJ7PLgmlX9OBbSdPncsLgodC-kF2uSN/w640-h380/AFLW%20Rankings%20R7%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz4GDgnMThzTU12qpR-v9n2GMFTj8Qi7J-E0bCm0EVoEGp7U7HHfh45CBA4hr9MGrG2bhJS9rBepkF4oAQLQD37vQGrUcrS3Nnb3GqDiEC5B9qqIHrTySHShtDnm5No8TC5WkMQ-VP1pj0Xh-G98GT_egRGO6-F-ftu43hrbmoEDFY38AvWJK9XN7ppBrd/s1993/AFLW%20Statistics%20R7%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1993" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz4GDgnMThzTU12qpR-v9n2GMFTj8Qi7J-E0bCm0EVoEGp7U7HHfh45CBA4hr9MGrG2bhJS9rBepkF4oAQLQD37vQGrUcrS3Nnb3GqDiEC5B9qqIHrTySHShtDnm5No8TC5WkMQ-VP1pj0Xh-G98GT_egRGO6-F-ftu43hrbmoEDFY38AvWJK9XN7ppBrd/w640-h236/AFLW%20Statistics%20R7%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0cm29UkdrqQvCx5eU-2dIqpL5bOSxcuhCTnpzPZ63qIC4NJI5LHLcqnDXGk3c7kpqdpVNUns1nf4L6wl0xn1zgrRWN46mle4a6c25F_VY-0wCFq5fCk6Ip6TrVbnARjsCzhUfhdl8xqC9hcccxnjzrWzkNX1WWKRxTp_IWwWlN954g21rXCYeopF09TBT/s1010/AFLW%20Predictions%20R8%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1010" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0cm29UkdrqQvCx5eU-2dIqpL5bOSxcuhCTnpzPZ63qIC4NJI5LHLcqnDXGk3c7kpqdpVNUns1nf4L6wl0xn1zgrRWN46mle4a6c25F_VY-0wCFq5fCk6Ip6TrVbnARjsCzhUfhdl8xqC9hcccxnjzrWzkNX1WWKRxTp_IWwWlN954g21rXCYeopF09TBT/w640-h262/AFLW%20Predictions%20R8%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div> <br /><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-1771786692828759172023-10-08T19:27:00.008+11:002023-10-08T20:47:36.336+11:00AFLW Rankings: Round 6 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijtPaVsk5B2IaXz8PpM8zXJYbdxueeukHUim_bACnV56Byp8mwK1oyzCabobfehT5u1csS6JkchdBozMNhLas_0JI8xxYrK0oSFkzfcMscZ3_esjPBLQdjSnKNUTjmX6TqqP2Av-28beJWPsfXzFyJA8_PbSXCa7sFryJTB55gNNqpFtCgx7EV1RVRZncf/s1139/AFLW%20Rankings%20R6%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="1139" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijtPaVsk5B2IaXz8PpM8zXJYbdxueeukHUim_bACnV56Byp8mwK1oyzCabobfehT5u1csS6JkchdBozMNhLas_0JI8xxYrK0oSFkzfcMscZ3_esjPBLQdjSnKNUTjmX6TqqP2Av-28beJWPsfXzFyJA8_PbSXCa7sFryJTB55gNNqpFtCgx7EV1RVRZncf/w640-h380/AFLW%20Rankings%20R6%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMJyJQS07VUL6brQalmB5U9I1W-9DmjBg5KTAqg4JBxQSrcQ4hiNqgzKqS_mUKc_pILvcddG0NDME2NuCyujjEytorf2ROavRtNZlcVgq9s57fwPDsYDL2z0FMzxOQbB3vOU1SOYnbgpxP15BPCV5bbjM2DWmvq9X4WyUqUvCxHruuJEewM7SXl3CTV2PE/s1993/AFLW%20Statistics%20R6%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1993" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMJyJQS07VUL6brQalmB5U9I1W-9DmjBg5KTAqg4JBxQSrcQ4hiNqgzKqS_mUKc_pILvcddG0NDME2NuCyujjEytorf2ROavRtNZlcVgq9s57fwPDsYDL2z0FMzxOQbB3vOU1SOYnbgpxP15BPCV5bbjM2DWmvq9X4WyUqUvCxHruuJEewM7SXl3CTV2PE/w640-h236/AFLW%20Statistics%20R6%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 273.0pt; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Crows halt Melbourne<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 273.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">In an AFLW classic, the Adelaide Crows surprised
with an away win against reigning premiers and previous league ladder leaders Melbourne
on the weekend. While the Crows are themselves one of the top-rated sides,
Melbourne had looked a step ahead of even the best teams with their awesome
offensive prowess, averaging over two more goals per game than even the Crows
heading into the matchup.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 273.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Adelaide couldn’t quite stop Melbourne’s forward
firepower – the Demons still scored on 40 per cent of their inside 50 entries,
which is still pretty good for any team not wearing red and blue. They couldn’t
also stop Eden Zanker, who kicked five goals to bring Melbourne back into the
match in the final half hour.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 273.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">What Adelaide did reduce though was Melbourne’s
inside 50 entries and particularly their flow of uncontested possessions. The
Demons had just 88 uncontested possessions against the Crows, way down on the
153 per game they had been averaging beforehand this season. That brought down
Melbourne’s supply of scoring opportunities, with only 28 inside 50s, about ten
down on what they had been averaging.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 273.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The Crows meanwhile were able to mostly maintain
both their uncontested game and forward supply. They racked up 139 uncontested
possessions and 38 inside 50 entries – a little down on their averages so far
this season, but very respectable against the toughest opposition in the league
on their home turf.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 273.0pt; text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Going Noff<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A
major part of the Crows’ win were the amazing performances of their midfield
engine room of Ebony Marinoff and Anne Hatchard. Between them Marinoff and
Hatchard had 60 disposals, 19 tackles, and 4 goals, which proved decisive in
the win.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Marinoff
in particular has become more of a forward threat this season. She has averaged
seven inside 50 entries per game this season, after never averaging more than
five per game in her previous six seasons. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Indeed,
Marinoff would be clearly considered the most damaging midfielder in the game –
if it wasn’t for a certain #25 at North Melbourne. Jasmine Garner has averaged
over eight inside 50 entries per game, and is the only player to be ahead of Marinoff
this season for inside 50s and metres gained (see below). Both are also in the
top ten for score involvements. The main difference is that Garner is a
clearance/contested possession machine, while Marinoff remains outstanding in terms
of her tackles (though both are near the top of either statistic).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjELR_TqjOb-pV9sjdGZcfGea05lmLhqszNBLuOiiOzvmdLKL5JqZRCocW0739F2lpTPrDEHTsNXCCUxB_f1tt4tUAamDPnJSiA4aTPBnZFiX-5PEji8vhRbWauGiUvQwKw6l3hfNtQjctV8R4Wd6Q8PYful5RcRrm2erT3YXpv9nexop6Al-3KRxH8Bbp_/s680/AFLW%20Table%20R6%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="680" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjELR_TqjOb-pV9sjdGZcfGea05lmLhqszNBLuOiiOzvmdLKL5JqZRCocW0739F2lpTPrDEHTsNXCCUxB_f1tt4tUAamDPnJSiA4aTPBnZFiX-5PEji8vhRbWauGiUvQwKw6l3hfNtQjctV8R4Wd6Q8PYful5RcRrm2erT3YXpv9nexop6Al-3KRxH8Bbp_/w400-h206/AFLW%20Table%20R6%202023.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">Either
way, Marinoff and Garner are the main driving forces behind the league’s top
two teams on the ladder at the moment. They’ll face off against each other in three
weeks time, in a matchup that may be crucial for shaping the top four this
season.</span></p></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAM1M-lGdnSPR3h3PwU8Q-CBn6Js95E2PZ7LnTOvRmCm3tAatIpim_3ZzvnglwOZKpPtgoNk-1aynq2HljEl47cm8uTP7MYDZA_vSuScCyhqs6DwM2VCCBjN40RPkmQKaFd-VAyk6Gs4a6nNRN6F-a5I4NiZpgn58JwraNHaV5ICEGrQ7swt3NobwtVx-y/s1010/AFLW%20Predictions%20R7%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="419" data-original-width="1010" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAM1M-lGdnSPR3h3PwU8Q-CBn6Js95E2PZ7LnTOvRmCm3tAatIpim_3ZzvnglwOZKpPtgoNk-1aynq2HljEl47cm8uTP7MYDZA_vSuScCyhqs6DwM2VCCBjN40RPkmQKaFd-VAyk6Gs4a6nNRN6F-a5I4NiZpgn58JwraNHaV5ICEGrQ7swt3NobwtVx-y/w640-h266/AFLW%20Predictions%20R7%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-66865344604188974972023-10-02T09:28:00.000+11:002023-10-02T09:28:05.108+11:00AFLW Rankings: Round 5 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEictWb48biNBZQlwg4qBhUibEfe6wkCnS3-nrrakkD9erxBHIW70n6_fbPx-GU-Uhzc8Gms4Sok8HdWMCL2492YpEK05mtE95gSKazMf7ssLYqdVQZKLmqoPGAh8f-HGZPtPqOtV2mzUuENmVjACfZor5Glz2CRv8DXIxoxjIYGow1VMQ3-60QXxtiGgNIL/s1139/AFLW%20Rankings%20R5%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="1139" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEictWb48biNBZQlwg4qBhUibEfe6wkCnS3-nrrakkD9erxBHIW70n6_fbPx-GU-Uhzc8Gms4Sok8HdWMCL2492YpEK05mtE95gSKazMf7ssLYqdVQZKLmqoPGAh8f-HGZPtPqOtV2mzUuENmVjACfZor5Glz2CRv8DXIxoxjIYGow1VMQ3-60QXxtiGgNIL/w640-h380/AFLW%20Rankings%20R5%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBWQ_O0xOrrqN5pyCPKpJuuYU6uCoh76G_VDNAcLOaA_NY6AqtPQfvOtvg7aGBhyphenhyphenUSRN5JyLuWZa6A6_2rABSY231O-KrWkYUXup-JqJjy3CdYJziL9I1EN6oozR9Mi48tL4C0Hr9vkkWdGgcBQpKn8Yxqc8prBCkaYKtqEzH-uGuHYByvzq4j13mRUERk/s1993/AFLW%20Statistics%20R5%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1993" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBWQ_O0xOrrqN5pyCPKpJuuYU6uCoh76G_VDNAcLOaA_NY6AqtPQfvOtvg7aGBhyphenhyphenUSRN5JyLuWZa6A6_2rABSY231O-KrWkYUXup-JqJjy3CdYJziL9I1EN6oozR9Mi48tL4C0Hr9vkkWdGgcBQpKn8Yxqc8prBCkaYKtqEzH-uGuHYByvzq4j13mRUERk/w640-h236/AFLW%20Statistics%20R5%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCmzaVtyBle7ZfZagSFx-I2KhpCcaJCddKH7IlcQTMQ4W3KBG7mcXR-wBXoIU0bnigK4wqOzWTSKac2eZ_QQyRSmZF9uBKi1cir67RcuYuJ1om4T8sy-2oUR8oY1Z-5y7FQe47sKkB0hIbIaIQUkkfzqB4W0dKUFcz1vkDILc-TRF_ozx6LjiDFdJFdYaX/s1010/AFLW%20Predictions%20R6%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="419" data-original-width="1010" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCmzaVtyBle7ZfZagSFx-I2KhpCcaJCddKH7IlcQTMQ4W3KBG7mcXR-wBXoIU0bnigK4wqOzWTSKac2eZ_QQyRSmZF9uBKi1cir67RcuYuJ1om4T8sy-2oUR8oY1Z-5y7FQe47sKkB0hIbIaIQUkkfzqB4W0dKUFcz1vkDILc-TRF_ozx6LjiDFdJFdYaX/w640-h266/AFLW%20Predictions%20R6%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-67497229590478161022023-09-30T20:41:00.006+10:002023-10-01T15:35:21.271+11:00AFL Rankings: Finals 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-GAit1hJBW8EZiRy6CjRTZQeoTys0A5epFYtDideIU8v9-nMqlKEd2rYXN424bvVyx2F-75CTkqrKU9gpjLthmVEY127Y-lCXPlgYdgumA5oxzcLcMbIme_BDGB-zQVmaCI7mK1O23Rbw3by_yqCA1lBlll3rzt5BQgMi5Y_cwZJsBFwFSNGz1d18Q1Na/s1330/AFL%20Rankings%20Finals%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="1330" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-GAit1hJBW8EZiRy6CjRTZQeoTys0A5epFYtDideIU8v9-nMqlKEd2rYXN424bvVyx2F-75CTkqrKU9gpjLthmVEY127Y-lCXPlgYdgumA5oxzcLcMbIme_BDGB-zQVmaCI7mK1O23Rbw3by_yqCA1lBlll3rzt5BQgMi5Y_cwZJsBFwFSNGz1d18Q1Na/w640-h326/AFL%20Rankings%20Finals%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiifYF_xmRHSL_Hi5irlAdGyGKHIPGwhyphenhyphenZ0zd6K7JoanRLFpTnrhj6XvyZhizQd17wzhSDvMBA0J3kElFdUh0bD_RJFqkzE7TMokR2hrMdThJJk1X5CQ2N-lht4Pq4L9cm5pdKHctuWHO7eXQHKg__j7r82fkrBkhC-bVyaSVnRR6uX6uM8pL1WzKq29t5H/s2013/AFL%20Statistics%20-%20Finals%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="733" data-original-width="2013" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiifYF_xmRHSL_Hi5irlAdGyGKHIPGwhyphenhyphenZ0zd6K7JoanRLFpTnrhj6XvyZhizQd17wzhSDvMBA0J3kElFdUh0bD_RJFqkzE7TMokR2hrMdThJJk1X5CQ2N-lht4Pq4L9cm5pdKHctuWHO7eXQHKg__j7r82fkrBkhC-bVyaSVnRR6uX6uM8pL1WzKq29t5H/w640-h234/AFL%20Statistics%20-%20Finals%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Collingwood
won the 2023 AFL Grand Final over Brisbane, <a href="http://troywheatley.blogspot.com/2023/08/afl-rankings-round-24-2023.html">as
I predicted at the start of the finals series</a>. As I also predicted however,
it easily could have gone another way, as the Magpies won their three finals by
a combined 12 points.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">In
their first final Collingwood were well-beaten for forward entries as Melbourne
had 32 more inside 50s (37-69), but benefitted from the Demons’ inefficiency in
converting their entries to scores. Their second final with GWS was a more even
affair, with the Magpies clearly winning the clearances (44-26) and GWS clearly
winning the contested ball everywhere else (140-154), but with the other main
statistics being relatively even. The Grand Final was almost a reverse of the
Magpies’ first final as they had 14 more inside 50 entries than the Lions
(57-43), but with inaccuracy in front of goal almost costing them the ultimate
prize – they got there though.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Indeed,
since their 2018 preliminary final, Collingwood has been in a bunch of close
finals: losing by 5 points, winning by 10, losing by 4, winning by 1, losing by
68, losing by 6, losing by 1, winning by 7, winning by 1, and winning by 4. If
things had gone a little less their way, they may have had no premierships over
that period, but if things had gone a little more their way maybe they would
have four? Although the Magpies have never been clearly the best team in any of
those years (not even this one); their breakthrough is more a testament of giving
yourself enough repeat opportunities in the finals that eventually you go all
the way.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Collingwood
in fact did not really stand out in any main area this season. They were sixth
for average inside 50 differential per game, and tenth for average contested possession
differential. Their defence stood up well against the barrage of Demon forward entries
in their first final, but they didn’t stand out in stopping opposition scoring
shots per inside 50 across the whole season. They were just solid in enough
areas to compete in a season that there wasn’t a stand-out team in, and they
had the close games go their way. There was a decent chance that whoever won
the premiership this season was going to have that story though – in the end, someone
had to win.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">It
made for an intriguing finals series in any case, compared with the past two
seasons in which Geelong and Melbourne steamrolled their way through the final
weeks. Comparisons are already being made between this season </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_AFL_season" style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">and 1993</a><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">, which is so fondly
remembered now that it had its own podcast series. At least </span><a href="http://troywheatley.blogspot.com/2023/08/the-living-memory-vflafl-premiership.html" style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">Collingwood
have now given their living supporters some more joy</a><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">, for all the finals
and Grand Finals they have made over the past 60 or so years.</span></p></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-34872250041821192872023-09-24T19:13:00.003+10:002023-09-24T19:13:21.988+10:00AFLW Rankings: Round 4 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvTlh5FGu9kZo5VS-nN9Ya-YuQe8M2QHZ-TLM3eR1j0pdFfzpHXag3ynHUj1o7o32bTPG6CeDyXFFhEsFjZzXlPinHHixcwFZeMSQcZspy7vq7gM44SZOvmY3aD_qCHXRmlM1p-cjIxWzxsdJyaD2EODsyJwb0ntJCE_ezn8QFoLeCVaVcEL_UJRpWevUY/s1139/AFLW%20Rankings%20R4%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="1139" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvTlh5FGu9kZo5VS-nN9Ya-YuQe8M2QHZ-TLM3eR1j0pdFfzpHXag3ynHUj1o7o32bTPG6CeDyXFFhEsFjZzXlPinHHixcwFZeMSQcZspy7vq7gM44SZOvmY3aD_qCHXRmlM1p-cjIxWzxsdJyaD2EODsyJwb0ntJCE_ezn8QFoLeCVaVcEL_UJRpWevUY/w640-h380/AFLW%20Rankings%20R4%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3iXt8lVgGu9sfQRL6fFTYHYtUG-83W1qxmJciy0VVKPDKepY6A4UhlPdIoz1je0b4AkEvDiKKOVpZ17oe-JW0_OOAQfJwK_uZTQxYy204ZNORQpH9BtRpz7dZClK1Ki4Z9XzmNJeE0n-Uj-3UXkHU5ZP6sD0H5t36YAL6nlfc84yEJbubAPjXv2_JjMw1/s1993/AFLW%20Statistics%20R4%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1993" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3iXt8lVgGu9sfQRL6fFTYHYtUG-83W1qxmJciy0VVKPDKepY6A4UhlPdIoz1je0b4AkEvDiKKOVpZ17oe-JW0_OOAQfJwK_uZTQxYy204ZNORQpH9BtRpz7dZClK1Ki4Z9XzmNJeE0n-Uj-3UXkHU5ZP6sD0H5t36YAL6nlfc84yEJbubAPjXv2_JjMw1/w640-h236/AFLW%20Statistics%20R4%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxnHl82R5q9XJL4IsovILyIuiDantuS1-Jl27ag7Yhe0FLYYUxWFkhNLkmHtWre2ss4X6OqeNqoasub_icYVuyix04wnPHFbgmOzV4eKchWNK6qT2wsZdKbnycd5GGTIYoCZrj_HZGUqNOKTTKNSzrlVV45yrN38klUwlZcm3SRbZFJB5ru_GjjiruCNJz/s1010/AFLW%20Predictions%20R5%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="419" data-original-width="1010" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxnHl82R5q9XJL4IsovILyIuiDantuS1-Jl27ag7Yhe0FLYYUxWFkhNLkmHtWre2ss4X6OqeNqoasub_icYVuyix04wnPHFbgmOzV4eKchWNK6qT2wsZdKbnycd5GGTIYoCZrj_HZGUqNOKTTKNSzrlVV45yrN38klUwlZcm3SRbZFJB5ru_GjjiruCNJz/w640-h266/AFLW%20Predictions%20R5%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div> <br /><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-83843107097629915752023-09-17T19:24:00.004+10:002023-09-19T07:19:16.253+10:00AFLW Rankings: Round 3 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOYumc0m3YFK71sUFj7_lNh2Rs_SIYY_RrtjglcJ0Or6crJgNdpJLqvCWC71smscwwbsAJ93n-1HmKndehadhwuZnoTwdLz7EJI_KZQbQzO6KREBqH_3aZ_DceyycjghY-NEOjyn8B0QyyKnzZLQv92ewW0WAepobQ29rs4HS7jDGwaTbHMyTSO5_O3Kqk/s1139/AFLW%20Rankings%20R3%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="1139" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOYumc0m3YFK71sUFj7_lNh2Rs_SIYY_RrtjglcJ0Or6crJgNdpJLqvCWC71smscwwbsAJ93n-1HmKndehadhwuZnoTwdLz7EJI_KZQbQzO6KREBqH_3aZ_DceyycjghY-NEOjyn8B0QyyKnzZLQv92ewW0WAepobQ29rs4HS7jDGwaTbHMyTSO5_O3Kqk/w640-h380/AFLW%20Rankings%20R3%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1nzVoMEHWzek5fXWdmsDX_aKxRfp5ql0fp5pQijz_7-yS1AexlD_5fXstqLX9PF_XbzOTAfO-Hz2lKYF3C0bgkNpLDA2w_BpkZau-H0nUHK-vKTIzg-_JNw0Dngm8YUVOMLU8r7GwVI9T40ig_ZnmcNLAAiQRbNP83k-uHnC6nnmz56NbvKyon4AS9pdi/s1993/AFLW%20Statistics%20R3%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1993" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1nzVoMEHWzek5fXWdmsDX_aKxRfp5ql0fp5pQijz_7-yS1AexlD_5fXstqLX9PF_XbzOTAfO-Hz2lKYF3C0bgkNpLDA2w_BpkZau-H0nUHK-vKTIzg-_JNw0Dngm8YUVOMLU8r7GwVI9T40ig_ZnmcNLAAiQRbNP83k-uHnC6nnmz56NbvKyon4AS9pdi/w640-h236/AFLW%20Statistics%20R3%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Reigning
premiers Melbourne have been an offensive juggernaut so far this season:</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></span></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;">- They have amassed 255
points at an average of 85 points per game. This is almost 20 points per game
more than the next highest team (Brisbane), and more than double the points of
twelve of the seventeen other sides.</span></div></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></span></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;">- They have 0.57 scoring
shots per inside 50 entry so far this season. This is 13 percentage points
better than the next highest AFLW team (see table below), and 10 percentage
points better than even the highest AFL men’s teams.</span></div></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></span></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify;">- They
have taken 46 marks inside 50, which equates to 0.37 marks per inside 50 entry.
That is 10 percentage points higher than both the next best AFLW team Adelaide
(0.27), and the highest AFL men’s team.</span></div></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 273.0pt; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnbxtApqfwqysWMhDMDL6Uvm4yxDKnZbAkKOlqy4IA_sb-S7Isx9dYVH4S--FexzAxvSxtLip0rBLtOu4W9Qowp6O7vOMDMsLvoWiZiZOxDUqGg2WgpABZuQOzH_NYdjJSvYyIma6Hg-7UXl8Krl8vVMXu5YSeYgIqVu8vXbUX_D4LGwvR_q2Q6ILf7bMz/s638/AFLW%20Table%20R3%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="589" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnbxtApqfwqysWMhDMDL6Uvm4yxDKnZbAkKOlqy4IA_sb-S7Isx9dYVH4S--FexzAxvSxtLip0rBLtOu4W9Qowp6O7vOMDMsLvoWiZiZOxDUqGg2WgpABZuQOzH_NYdjJSvYyIma6Hg-7UXl8Krl8vVMXu5YSeYgIqVu8vXbUX_D4LGwvR_q2Q6ILf7bMz/w369-h400/AFLW%20Table%20R3%202023.jpg" width="369" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 273.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The Demons may have the most formidable forward line
in AFLW history. They have two of the top three highest goalkickers in AFLW
history with Kate Hore and Tayla Harris, who are both also in the all-time top
10 for goal assists. They have two other capable forward targets in Eden Zanker
and Alyssa Bannan. They’ve got great attacking midfielders in Paxy, Tyla Hanks,
and Olivia Purcell. The Demons lost Daisy Pearce to retirement and haven’t
missed a beat.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 273.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">The
main question around Melbourne’s performance this season is whether their forward
line can stay at this ‘off-the-charts’ level. They’ve yet to play Brisbane, Adelaide,
or North Melbourne so far this season, all of whom they will play in the
remaining rounds. But they’re currently so good on offence that even a
reversion back to more ‘normal’ levels would still stand them in great stead
for a tilt at back-to-back flags.</span></p></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-yPuErYdCw2bCCdhp9_dss2HBHdMGhJKEOVbvWBcRRRN6NApnoNH0AjtaddWdzBWN_Og1R7B_it67QWEYf49yj1b7yGdW_c_dfbUrIfEU8fwk8ksX4FSCV13QDbfL1w91-pkawAVQanUgTJmXqGADMgyQGBaJgSklWygbvFJqy6pGr4ZIQ4MgXvUPhYvu/s1010/AFLW%20Predictions%20R4%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1010" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-yPuErYdCw2bCCdhp9_dss2HBHdMGhJKEOVbvWBcRRRN6NApnoNH0AjtaddWdzBWN_Og1R7B_it67QWEYf49yj1b7yGdW_c_dfbUrIfEU8fwk8ksX4FSCV13QDbfL1w91-pkawAVQanUgTJmXqGADMgyQGBaJgSklWygbvFJqy6pGr4ZIQ4MgXvUPhYvu/w640-h262/AFLW%20Predictions%20R4%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-62646044999237864702023-09-10T21:26:00.003+10:002023-09-10T21:26:31.387+10:00AFLW Rankings: Round 2 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpffUWxuWhNemTipbzHzBnXzoalo_KXTGM-Rw_MgHL8xIlSE_9OrYr83tNJaTsXxlNKRtCKVyN5fDqfS8Sf5U8I-rMKi28vBuMkzy5viKDPgmMpU1d4blXoYeZJexyYLhlb8c9wHAhwSBogBCZZnRjKDdRLQACOaGAw5yBizO_-dH0b_aAN7yTkHGcYnIj/s1139/AFLW%20Rankings%20R2%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="681" data-original-width="1139" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpffUWxuWhNemTipbzHzBnXzoalo_KXTGM-Rw_MgHL8xIlSE_9OrYr83tNJaTsXxlNKRtCKVyN5fDqfS8Sf5U8I-rMKi28vBuMkzy5viKDPgmMpU1d4blXoYeZJexyYLhlb8c9wHAhwSBogBCZZnRjKDdRLQACOaGAw5yBizO_-dH0b_aAN7yTkHGcYnIj/w640-h382/AFLW%20Rankings%20R2%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ-pygoPwvRu2iKC0RzB5DnCs1yha3Kebz4UH6Ta1olwssdVhJZPGIIzqxS26D4Apbilwdh4hHg0nUfJThKqEG3xGduMvyHBhTuug6oVwU7j8Chzk6kikjSsJ09vyJ7WcqXpYia5BJt6XODjxFyKGAl6zwxKk7PCUCe_EN3zmlJB0B4sfe-NSqtTT6mNPO/s1993/AFLW%20Statistics%20R2%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1993" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ-pygoPwvRu2iKC0RzB5DnCs1yha3Kebz4UH6Ta1olwssdVhJZPGIIzqxS26D4Apbilwdh4hHg0nUfJThKqEG3xGduMvyHBhTuug6oVwU7j8Chzk6kikjSsJ09vyJ7WcqXpYia5BJt6XODjxFyKGAl6zwxKk7PCUCe_EN3zmlJB0B4sfe-NSqtTT6mNPO/w640-h236/AFLW%20Statistics%20R2%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilo74wpBvZjd2qFAnMkMswJPFx0A5j3laVokkCOqgfZyHnVBEDxw6XbAIgwbySCZasuG5WSXs3RjARwbtODIUmWYutDexfT1fbXnDCgAnjf6EFWza16BPDlTaZtYPvINRfSRGe1eh_Obg6-RpxRMDFC9aD-5gngA1RQw0uEw-PdB6J2Sh2YewtJhx2tGKN/s1010/AFLW%20Predictions%20R3%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1010" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilo74wpBvZjd2qFAnMkMswJPFx0A5j3laVokkCOqgfZyHnVBEDxw6XbAIgwbySCZasuG5WSXs3RjARwbtODIUmWYutDexfT1fbXnDCgAnjf6EFWza16BPDlTaZtYPvINRfSRGe1eh_Obg6-RpxRMDFC9aD-5gngA1RQw0uEw-PdB6J2Sh2YewtJhx2tGKN/w640-h262/AFLW%20Predictions%20R3%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-70157411001514590292023-09-06T19:51:00.005+10:002023-09-06T19:51:36.839+10:00AFLW Rankings: Round 1 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF6w2AlIttiLbleV3SQHD8caVZJzu9MDEVmZlVWZKaXotB6YpMVHMEBA9xta5QKpW8eX1mQ81kIzA1jZJFSR-bkhGjHkx0NgljWPnBRsbGk-lqAMnYbNoDdvquQltu_sIS4yrYLY-E0z5cUTS11v5YN5J5xyGnbeM5KcVd8vx0tHgQNoiZsibdSCirZKiH/s948/AFLW%20Rankings%20R1%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="694" data-original-width="948" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF6w2AlIttiLbleV3SQHD8caVZJzu9MDEVmZlVWZKaXotB6YpMVHMEBA9xta5QKpW8eX1mQ81kIzA1jZJFSR-bkhGjHkx0NgljWPnBRsbGk-lqAMnYbNoDdvquQltu_sIS4yrYLY-E0z5cUTS11v5YN5J5xyGnbeM5KcVd8vx0tHgQNoiZsibdSCirZKiH/w640-h468/AFLW%20Rankings%20R1%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgURNFd5jEwUK59YXFkx3OelwPBq_R1TTmV3mBUJU4DWvXKbkZqUGqYQ9bS-HyiACwifqAFQAZ5vi_w-pswUiDV2n_wPOjwagyUgYRULdEk59Hxw4i1VQoKFfIj7liQFMwKbaRYVtb7pJvcC8ACJtRjDkDWhTr3qpzDIBQConFkYei6iecA1mKp5xeIz9i9/s1993/AFLW%20Statistics%20R1%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1993" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgURNFd5jEwUK59YXFkx3OelwPBq_R1TTmV3mBUJU4DWvXKbkZqUGqYQ9bS-HyiACwifqAFQAZ5vi_w-pswUiDV2n_wPOjwagyUgYRULdEk59Hxw4i1VQoKFfIj7liQFMwKbaRYVtb7pJvcC8ACJtRjDkDWhTr3qpzDIBQConFkYei6iecA1mKp5xeIz9i9/w640-h236/AFLW%20Statistics%20R1%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKR5F8G6rqkkbJ_UA6u1rlkwskXdPT0N3GNZOXqnfXSMfE3vG-QsU8qv61mFwHxHT0oHSRSCyl00tubzZ-wBtyIekhx-tIurHHcpeeGKbRoaZUCxeLrvUhy0dS-LhWpnWvpU7jBdr_W1SiW4Z8XvXno22u3h8ir8aSgdza5IWabLbNiUuh5aHUxbm24xbZ/s1010/AFLW%20Predictions%20R2%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1010" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKR5F8G6rqkkbJ_UA6u1rlkwskXdPT0N3GNZOXqnfXSMfE3vG-QsU8qv61mFwHxHT0oHSRSCyl00tubzZ-wBtyIekhx-tIurHHcpeeGKbRoaZUCxeLrvUhy0dS-LhWpnWvpU7jBdr_W1SiW4Z8XvXno22u3h8ir8aSgdza5IWabLbNiUuh5aHUxbm24xbZ/w640-h262/AFLW%20Predictions%20R2%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-23119696228058383162023-08-28T21:01:00.000+10:002023-08-28T21:01:06.801+10:00AFL Rankings: Round 24 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs69lyWdhuwLPbK_1hQFaT2NWviIVFwdgLncfd3NjNRqDzv_FY2Xr09t9WuIyy5vLs8Q-xHIfbAE_C4bm8PFv1Yo0ScVk_u5CglGf5KVbCEfqggpC_8RCN-HlZTCHitDwR4hGys8OYYbSlT47SIWNmDq2-gogDfP50JZm15ikFqjGLb1wbcsgAp4Py_Ad9/s1330/AFL%20Rankings%20R24%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="1330" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs69lyWdhuwLPbK_1hQFaT2NWviIVFwdgLncfd3NjNRqDzv_FY2Xr09t9WuIyy5vLs8Q-xHIfbAE_C4bm8PFv1Yo0ScVk_u5CglGf5KVbCEfqggpC_8RCN-HlZTCHitDwR4hGys8OYYbSlT47SIWNmDq2-gogDfP50JZm15ikFqjGLb1wbcsgAp4Py_Ad9/w640-h326/AFL%20Rankings%20R24%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8rpF_-H215jEqpZdy0ph98JdNLWHpX1O2IlhqHxLJgqRmIL7v2P4hX3Ictwj70LwpLr3cIy7Ll8B27B5AwveqhH5KHOPpYS2LWf2eIkfwmMPF5YbPsSshZD1w-L7x2UZFNxKgXyPMOF8hl_xDlg1v7BU5lD9bvZ0RVolXsU7MpOauaRrOIeryaT_BHiGo/s2013/AFL%20Statistics%20R24%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="733" data-original-width="2013" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8rpF_-H215jEqpZdy0ph98JdNLWHpX1O2IlhqHxLJgqRmIL7v2P4hX3Ictwj70LwpLr3cIy7Ll8B27B5AwveqhH5KHOPpYS2LWf2eIkfwmMPF5YbPsSshZD1w-L7x2UZFNxKgXyPMOF8hl_xDlg1v7BU5lD9bvZ0RVolXsU7MpOauaRrOIeryaT_BHiGo/w640-h234/AFL%20Statistics%20R24%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">So
here we are at the end of the longest ‘home-and-away’ AFL season ever, and
there probably still aren’t too many people outside of the most ‘one-eyed’
supporters who have a clear favourite to win the premiership from here. The top
four teams have shown mixed form in recent weeks, while the team that looks to
be the most in-form – the GWS Giants – had to win in the final match to even
qualify for the finals in the first place.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">In
any case, let’s have a go at predicting again how the finals will play out,
using the current rankings and estimated home ground advantage. Note here that
most of these match-ups would be expected to be very close, and I’m not picking
the winners with much confidence. Nevertheless, here’s the ‘head-to-head’
outcomes of how the rankings have the finals playing out.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmS2VRhViwFq1nbsJkB0ewb2wLryo6rUQmdk5RhPZqi6l-cxmwHGPbtW2HHq1Daf_iFBrTEgNz3QsAnMw3KfUUfPBtk3ecoomIrxljmMXydyiVgaBxSLKTZkCNjdQSBAjFXqEVgRuAscgtXcMf8LlnuCfp08ePBu9-9P5CdNbjbvVMEC286esr2_fuUeqt/s918/AFL%20Table%201%20R24%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="244" data-original-width="918" height="170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmS2VRhViwFq1nbsJkB0ewb2wLryo6rUQmdk5RhPZqi6l-cxmwHGPbtW2HHq1Daf_iFBrTEgNz3QsAnMw3KfUUfPBtk3ecoomIrxljmMXydyiVgaBxSLKTZkCNjdQSBAjFXqEVgRuAscgtXcMf8LlnuCfp08ePBu9-9P5CdNbjbvVMEC286esr2_fuUeqt/w640-h170/AFL%20Table%201%20R24%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Collingwood
is the predicted Grand Final winner, at the Melbourne Cricket Ground over
Brisbane. I’d also say however there’s not much less than a one-in-four chance
the Magpies go out of the finals in ‘straight sets’. Still they finished on top
of the ladder, and almost on top of the rankings, so they seem to have about as
good a chance as anyone.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, "serif"; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">However,
Collingwood was helped a bit this season by their opposition being inaccurate
in front of goal. There’s a fair case to be made that the two strongest sides in
the home-and-away season may have been Brisbane and Melbourne. Both have better
differentials for scoring shots, inside 50s, ‘net possession chains’, and
contested possessions than Collingwood (see table below). A slightly different
rankings system could well have them as the two ‘best’ teams going into the
finals – although the Pies and Demons do still have the advantage over the
Lions that the Grand Final will be played in Melbourne no matter what happens.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNY5fCaFpvpRseIIp4bSx6vlQLxDoUMGPeBrfjEzQ_XAW8zjVcsx-w075aLZF0vwRnVcK9m9fmA8ad9K8S9tAu2YqouLUVtl-kn0wC-BVLEL-b_03qWH3GXM7gMs89VSEPi4lQHE8GgOcRZGi70BOq2yBT1IT6iCm3ZpELW1yFOudv_MP1p-mhJK7KV_Gi/s1117/AFL%20Table%202%20R24%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="423" data-original-width="1117" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNY5fCaFpvpRseIIp4bSx6vlQLxDoUMGPeBrfjEzQ_XAW8zjVcsx-w075aLZF0vwRnVcK9m9fmA8ad9K8S9tAu2YqouLUVtl-kn0wC-BVLEL-b_03qWH3GXM7gMs89VSEPi4lQHE8GgOcRZGi70BOq2yBT1IT6iCm3ZpELW1yFOudv_MP1p-mhJK7KV_Gi/w640-h242/AFL%20Table%202%20R24%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p></div>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-67661199152947523462023-08-20T21:35:00.003+10:002023-08-22T10:32:52.277+10:00AFL Rankings: Round 23 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5UELwzFItXU_E1oW85VQMoNCAYmPazNs5D8zybWv2e5QKQ8tCDEkslGyAwo77X-U4tIol1FMH7F1f6wwQTF5CUkZ6Yx0TnZ9Hj6rGvxIXCs8LnWUaOKC89eOnNo_pYwU0nF106_81go-8Z3MJfmI1sA70DTEM5sbCtfQzVE30aVG2WgAAz1scgnfq8vzz/s1330/AFL%20Rankings%20R23%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="1330" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5UELwzFItXU_E1oW85VQMoNCAYmPazNs5D8zybWv2e5QKQ8tCDEkslGyAwo77X-U4tIol1FMH7F1f6wwQTF5CUkZ6Yx0TnZ9Hj6rGvxIXCs8LnWUaOKC89eOnNo_pYwU0nF106_81go-8Z3MJfmI1sA70DTEM5sbCtfQzVE30aVG2WgAAz1scgnfq8vzz/w640-h326/AFL%20Rankings%20R23%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgghqR-5Q0e-9vu6BXagAJyeCY7J5lBX_man5Yf1Ch-XYJw7Q0UZZGZHrN1xmVyeTD-9-JTAeykaHu7c_yq5bvXRP8qaes_NZ9gys7d_lwpHz1D-FDwzDhT3YXahEg-zXO9XXV7Frq383FkKs9v1G0f0GQt4JP2_tdoQiP9ebGbLvP01f4DBrAMIbMRrt0R/s2013/AFL%20Statistics%20R23%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="733" data-original-width="2013" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgghqR-5Q0e-9vu6BXagAJyeCY7J5lBX_man5Yf1Ch-XYJw7Q0UZZGZHrN1xmVyeTD-9-JTAeykaHu7c_yq5bvXRP8qaes_NZ9gys7d_lwpHz1D-FDwzDhT3YXahEg-zXO9XXV7Frq383FkKs9v1G0f0GQt4JP2_tdoQiP9ebGbLvP01f4DBrAMIbMRrt0R/w640-h234/AFL%20Statistics%20R23%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A
surprising battle for the eighth finals spot<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Suddenly,
unexpectedly, modern-day rivals GWS and the Western Bulldogs are fighting it
out for the last AFL finals spot this season. Just a couple of weeks ago the
Bulldogs were considerably more favoured than the Giants to get a spot in the
final eight. The Dogs had a big advantage in terms of percentage, and were
playing two of the bottom three teams on the ladder – Hawthorn and West Coast –
in the next two rounds. Geelong in the final round presented a tougher match-up
for the Bulldogs, but they still were widely considered a better chance of
beating the Cats than the Giants were of winning on the road against a red-hot
Carlton side.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Well,
no more. The Bulldogs’ shock loss to West Coast on the weekend – possibly the
most unexpected loss of the season – puts them now one win behind GWS, and no
longer ‘in control of their own finals destiny’ (I mean, they still have
control if GWS lose). Even more, GWS look a good deal more formidable than they
did a week ago. The Giants kicked their highest-ever score on their way to a
massive 126-point win against Essendon, which has them now as the fifth
highest-rated side on the rankings heading into the final round.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">If
GWS beat Carlton next week they are into the finals. The rankings give them a
40 per cent chance of doing so, whereas it would have been about 30 per cent a
week ago. But even if they lose they can still make it if the Bulldogs lose as
well. The Dogs are given a 36 per cent chance of beating Geelong. Putting that
together gives GWS roughly a 78 per chance of grabbing the last finals spot,
and the Bulldogs a 22 per cent chance.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Of
the two teams, given recent form/competitiveness, the Giants would be the more
‘interesting’ team to see in the finals. Still, if the Dogs can get there in
the final round they’ll have (somewhat) ‘earned’ it, and we know from recent
history what damage they can do from the bottom reaches of the eight. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Locked
in<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
Bulldogs’ loss means that St. Kilda and Sydney are locked into the finals, as
is Carlton after their win on the weekend. Credit to the Saints for making it
and their performance against Geelong to clinch a spot – and they have been in
the top eight all season – but it would be surprising if they got past the
second week. The Swans’ season basically improved significantly after their
massive 171-point win against the Eagles in Round 15, and while they have had
some narrow – and </span><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-21/fallout-from-ben-keays-goal-decision-on-adelaide-crows/102755172"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">controversial</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> –
wins in recent weeks, they look slightly better-placed to go further.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Carlton
seem to be the most dangerous of the three teams after nine straight wins –
although again, a couple of those have been narrow. Their defence has improved
significantly over the season, and they now rank with St. Kilda and Melbourne
in terms of their miserliness in allowing opposition scores when the ball goes
inside their back 50. Unlike those two teams however, the Blues are also
relatively decent at scoring when the ball gores into their own forward 50.
They rank highly for clearance and contested possession differential, which in
theory, should stand them in good stead for the ‘pressure cooker’ of finals.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">Really,
the Blues’ main weakness is they are not going to finish in the top four. So
while they can probably match it with any team, they are going to have to win
another four matches in a row – and against good opposition – to ultimately win
the premiership. </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; text-align: center;"><a href="http://troywheatley.blogspot.com/2023/08/afl-rankings-round-22-2023.html"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">That’s hard, and unlikely</span></a></span><span style="font-family: Garamond, "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
– although really, any premiership is ‘unlikely’ for any one specific team –
but after ten years out of the finals, Carlton fans may be content just to get
any finals wins back under their belt.</span></p></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyNsjL6_WGCg_x1Ok20A-yVH4iJ02cxcFW4jjHLc39DFO43LEW-MxzU_02OlZ_LwB-Nqqm3TpPwR4hbvRDmPVZtjJakbE38tKhD_1izOv1EY4nOcqKaXJ2Ma67yUOU784G8eecWrZ5C7GZfu5OOuin6QP4CMo13XbZSqGFpEItGv4pkhSriVMFdGfnf7kS/s1245/AFL%20Predictions%20R24%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1245" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyNsjL6_WGCg_x1Ok20A-yVH4iJ02cxcFW4jjHLc39DFO43LEW-MxzU_02OlZ_LwB-Nqqm3TpPwR4hbvRDmPVZtjJakbE38tKhD_1izOv1EY4nOcqKaXJ2Ma67yUOU784G8eecWrZ5C7GZfu5OOuin6QP4CMo13XbZSqGFpEItGv4pkhSriVMFdGfnf7kS/w640-h214/AFL%20Predictions%20R24%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-41309967138128798602023-08-18T23:03:00.002+10:002023-08-19T00:55:14.642+10:00(Way Too Many Thoughts) On the Selection and Revision of the VFL/AFL Team Of The Century<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">As part of the VFL/AFL’s 100<sup>th</sup>
season celebrations in 1996, a Team Of The Century was selected and announced. </span><span style="font-family: Garamond, "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">While the team is in part now
an historical artifact, it still to some extent shapes comparisons between the
great players, and serves as a benchmark for discussing new stars. For example,
when there are discussions about whether Matthew Scarlett is the best full-back
of all-time, the main reference point for comparison is usually Stephen
Silvagni, who was often referred to as ‘Full-back Of The Century’ after he was
named in the side.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">But how much are those
reference points actually historical ‘accidents’, determined by the Team
selection process itself? As I’ll get into below, Silvagni probably wasn’t even
the first choice of the selection panel. There were rules and limitations
around the selection process – how much did that affect the final outcome?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">My conclusion: a little. I
think the majority of the team had a reasonably strong ‘consensus’, but there
may have been some ‘quirks’ in a few of the positions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">(P.S. – If at any point your
response is “How can they be compared? No-one saw them all play”, just stop
reading; this type of sports discussion isn’t for you.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Team Of The Century
– and the rule that got Silvagni selected</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Alright, first let’s re-cap
who was selected:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1azT0TzYnA75bo0t-CtIfBEgJXrsGkMzR93zRRa2YB_w3ka5vxodPd39Dx6ITfN_nYjBdgtcItVOqxyNHgM8sx3NSc9qH1g1F1jSanLpbWvzjVC5qfW0KIggVFmp8kVyru-9znxw6oMixLQoOHuY-9IpLopPq0lIm8j1MK8o1-MF1K-Hx1zo_i_HgfuDd/s922/VFL-AFL%20Team%20Of%20The%20Century.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="256" data-original-width="922" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1azT0TzYnA75bo0t-CtIfBEgJXrsGkMzR93zRRa2YB_w3ka5vxodPd39Dx6ITfN_nYjBdgtcItVOqxyNHgM8sx3NSc9qH1g1F1jSanLpbWvzjVC5qfW0KIggVFmp8kVyru-9znxw6oMixLQoOHuY-9IpLopPq0lIm8j1MK8o1-MF1K-Hx1zo_i_HgfuDd/w640-h178/VFL-AFL%20Team%20Of%20The%20Century.jpg" width="640" /></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify;"> </span></span></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Now here’s the main point to
note. Also as part of the 1996 celebrations the Australian Football Hall of
Fame was established with an initial set of 136 inductees. To be eligible for
selection in the VFL/AFL Team Of The Century, a player had to be in that
initial Australian Football Hall of Fame class (and actually played in the
VFL/AFL of course, so no Barrie Robran or Merv McIntosh), unless they were not
yet eligible to be in the Hall of Fame – i.e. present-day players and recent
retirees. (That initial Hall of Fame class also had selection boundaries, with
30 players each from the three periods of 1901-1930, 1931-1960, and 1961-1995,
and some from pre-1901).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">As selection panel member </span><a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/stephen-silvagnis-selection-as-fullback-in-the-afl-team-of-the-century-is-a-little-known-secret/news-story/4a9a84e1de322a183883081ccaa96d4f"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Allen
Aylett recounted years later, this rule played a large part in Silvagni being
selected into the team</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">. Aylett’s view is that the panel
preferred either David Dench or Geoff Southby, but neither were eligible to be
selected as they only made the Hall Of Fame a few years later. Now you could argue
that if they were not in the 100-odd initial inductees maybe they shouldn’t be
in the ‘greatest ever’ team of 21, but it sounds like they were the preferred
candidates of the panel in any case. (Also, to get in the Hall of Fame, they
weren’t competing for 100-odd spots against players from all eras, they were
competing for the 30 spots allocated to players from 1961-1995.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Collingwood full-back Jack
Regan was eligible and the overwhelming favourite to be selected, but Aylett
says the two oldest members of the panel (Percy Beames and Bill Jacobs) who saw
Regan play weren’t supportive of him. That is when they started considering
Silvagni as a candidate, noting too they would have been short of other options
since there were only a few full-backs in the initial Hall of Fame class.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Hence, Carlton’s Silvagni
ended up being selected and wound up as the ‘benchmark’ for full-backs ever
since, whereas before that barely anyone rated him higher than Regan (at least
based on accounts of Regan, as even then not a lot of people would have seen
him play) – or even Dench or Southby. Now it is true Silvagni was partway
through his career in 1996, and subsequent accomplishments may have seen him
considered the ‘greatest’ full-back eventually anyway. But it sounds likely he at
least would not have been ‘Full-back Of The Century’ if Dench or Southby had
been eligible. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The nominations<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Each of the 18 field positions
had three nominations, with the three-man interchange able to be made up of
players from any position not in the starting 18. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It is unclear whether the
nominations happened first, and the selections were made from those
‘shortlists’, or the selections were made first and nominations filled out
around them to build suspense for the announcement. From what Aylett says about
the process to find a candidate for the full-back position after Dench and
Southby were ruled out, it may well have been the latter.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">If the nominations did come
first, it is also uncertain whether players could only be considered for ‘one
side of the field’ only; i.e. they were up against two other nominations rather
than five for pockets, flanks, and wings. I expect that at least some players
were up against others for specific roles – one of the back pocket groups is
clearly a ‘second ruck’ role, while one of the forward pocket groups looks like
a ‘second rover’ role. (I do know what it was for the readers’ vote, which I’ll
get to below.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Anyway, </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G9HOatoB_I"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">these were the nominations</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBxwI3vldjgQmYGvXx4wKUa-WDiHH0uwQWcub20DfEPNXa-SXc5BzUtGGgoiHggIcWGWbPCEsyKzuL_vIWCNVtxLQLC_jq0fqybER2f9bHn8jBBuIVhDw2fx5HHE41ahPs4ToK92xatnxoC2JP8jTNx1fBgJ5uuIMrwELJVfj7ZK4Um1eBay0jyFJs6shX/s990/VFL-AFL%20Team%20Of%20The%20Century%20Nominations.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="606" data-original-width="990" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBxwI3vldjgQmYGvXx4wKUa-WDiHH0uwQWcub20DfEPNXa-SXc5BzUtGGgoiHggIcWGWbPCEsyKzuL_vIWCNVtxLQLC_jq0fqybER2f9bHn8jBBuIVhDw2fx5HHE41ahPs4ToK92xatnxoC2JP8jTNx1fBgJ5uuIMrwELJVfj7ZK4Um1eBay0jyFJs6shX/w640-h392/VFL-AFL%20Team%20Of%20The%20Century%20Nominations.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The main thing of note in
terms of the selection process is that six players were nominated for more than
one position: Rantall, Bourke, Reynolds, Ablett Sr, Bartlett, and Matthews. Of
particular note is that Ablett Sr wasn’t nominated as a half-forward flank,
which is the position he is most associated with, and Reynolds wasn’t nominated
as a rover. That means Ablett Sr had to ‘get past’ either Matthews in the
forward pocket or Coleman at full-forward to earn a spot in the first 18, both
of which were a tall order. And while Reynolds was known to play on the wing or
half-forward, he is certainly most well-known as a rover (or ruck rover). In
the end, Reynolds was named at half-forward, again suggesting that perhaps the
selections came first and the nominations came second.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Nicholls nominated as a back
pocket but not a ruck also makes me think the team may have come first. Dempsey
was a ruck that was well-known for also playing in the back pocket, and Mueller
played on multiple lines, but Nicholls was primarily a ruck who ‘rested’
forward. I expect the panel decided that the two ‘best’ rucks were Farmer and
Nicholls, and placed one at ruck and the other in the back pocket – and similarly
for Skilton and Bunton in the rover and forward pocket positions. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Another thing of note, which
I’ve pointed out above for full-backs, is that some positions were not high on
options; for a few of them (backs mostly) if you were in the initial Hall of
Fame class you were a good chance of being a Team of The Century nomination.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Conversely, for positions full
of ‘stars’ it is noteworthy who wasn’t nominated. In particular Tony Lockett,
Jason Dunstall, Peter Hudson, and Gordon Coventry were not nominated at
full-forward, so based on that you’d assume the panel rated Coleman and Pratt
and even Ablett as being better in that position.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The readers vote<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Leading up to the
announcement, Herald Sun readers also had a chance to vote from the ‘nominations’
in each position, and name their interchange. I remember ticking the boxes and
posting my vote! Here’s the </span><a href="https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/published-lists-teams-of-the-year-best-players-of-all-time-best-teams-lists-players-of-a-season.1264713/page-2"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">published
‘readers team’</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiffxEL5YCqTZ0Iy0SnhXz5l8h8XQNQ4RCpkFi0JGhNZiaed6pylzsTuGFiXpnKdzdwFAYXw9v1WeMzqao2EJ4eKEHM0bDsjUiCIuJ7-KUoM__o9f4E35s2UJG4TXw0OpeJbrH4f8EGaqzSIl-Q3V8hv6Qxsbb_WrwunhXcJpmpWCjY2rKkn2lOuEfOEnWk/s922/Readers%20VFL-AFL%20Team%20Of%20The%20Century.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="256" data-original-width="922" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiffxEL5YCqTZ0Iy0SnhXz5l8h8XQNQ4RCpkFi0JGhNZiaed6pylzsTuGFiXpnKdzdwFAYXw9v1WeMzqao2EJ4eKEHM0bDsjUiCIuJ7-KUoM__o9f4E35s2UJG4TXw0OpeJbrH4f8EGaqzSIl-Q3V8hv6Qxsbb_WrwunhXcJpmpWCjY2rKkn2lOuEfOEnWk/w640-h178/Readers%20VFL-AFL%20Team%20Of%20The%20Century.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Noting that the readers were
limited by the nominations (so they couldn’t pick Lockett for example), the
readers team as a whole was fairly much in line with the panel’s choices. Given
that </span><a href="https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/matthew-scarlett-and-gavin-wanganeen-get-nod-in-fans-team-of-the-century/news-story/2d72f2e68aa8567fda217986075e8f33"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">fans
picked three full-forwards on field when given a broader range of options in
2014</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">,
limiting their options may not have been the worst move.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">They agreed with the panel on
fifteen of the twenty-one spots: Nicholls, Doull, Whitten, Murray, Bourke,
Stewart, Greig, Jesaulenko, Hart, Coleman, Bunton, Farmer, Barassi, Skilton,
and Dyer – with Ablett Sr on field rather than the bench. Hence, I’m
comfortable in saying there was a fair degree of ‘consensus’ on the Team of The
Century – although apart from not being able to pick some players, I reckon
there’s a good chance that six players being nominated in multiple positions
affected the outcome.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The readers team doesn’t
include Leigh Matthews! I repeat, the player that is often considered the
greatest footballer ever – Leigh Matthews – was not in the readers’ team, not
even on the interchange! What happened?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s unclear whether the
readers team was decided by who had the most votes, or who had the most votes
in <i>that position</i>. I know for sure from filling out the form that there
were only three possible candidates in each spot on the field. My guess is that
Ablett Sr is in the final ‘readers team’ over Matthews because he got the most
‘ticks’ in that forward pocket spot, and Skilton got the rover position because
he had the most ‘ticks’ in that spot. But Matthews could well have got more total
votes than either Ablett or Skilton. And if Matthews didn’t get many
‘interchange’ votes, because he was usually picked on field as either the
forward pocket or rover, maybe that’s how he missed out there too.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Similarly with Dick Reynolds.
Reynolds not only may have his vote split over two positions, they are also –
as discussed above – two positions he is not heavily associated with. Greig is
far more well-known as a wing than Reynolds, and Bartlett is more well-known as
a forward. Reynolds may have been ‘shafted’ in the readers’ team in part
because of this.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Though it is worth noting that
some of Bartlett’s vote could have been split too with the forward pocket. This
suggests that perhaps more people voted for Bartlett relative to Reynolds than
they did for Bartlett relative to Bunton, resulting in Bartlett in being named
at half-forward on the readers team, and Bunton beating out Aylett for the
forward pocket.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Note the readers picked Regan.
It feels like the only two people at the time who didn’t think it should be
Regan at full-back were Percy Beames and Bill Jacobs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Finally, the readers picked
Charlie Sutton over Bernie Smith. Smith is clearly considered a ‘great’, but this
selection seems more lineball the more I think about it. I find it interesting
that </span><a href="https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/published-lists-teams-of-the-year-best-players-of-all-time-best-teams-lists-players-of-a-season.1264713/page-2"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Sporting Life unofficial ‘All-Australian’ teams in the late 1940s and early
1950s picked Sutton four times and Smith only once</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.
Smith didn’t even get picked in the year he won the Brownlow! – it was Sutton
and Magarey Medal winner John Marriott. Jack Dyer’s book ‘The Greatest’ also
left Smith out of the best side from 1947 to 1956 (and picked Sutton as the
best back pocket ever). Did having fellow Geelong player Bob Davis on the
selection panel help get Smith over the line? Did they want a South Australian
representative in the dawn of the national competition? This all suggests at
least he wasn’t as ‘out of the box’ in his position as his selection led me to
believe.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">An ‘alternative truth’
Team Of The Century</span></u></b><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Considering the above
observations, I propose this ‘alternative truth’ VFL/AFL Team Of The Century,
if the selection process had been a touch different. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXi2XY0rHyR0pZE68fS_XoZvt9KceRa4smcpgDEzRU3CXQA5hZ1ugF57XKcr2kwJye7wEvnKjioZlCCkrE9N9nwKDnDzEWoo28AvTsDyPj2dQb9y_9h7b4lMRTgFXf8VbRVHXqGe8Naa4Ipc9y8jRJngQ8F2vUaVTtRNgz1UjLFPSk1GkRNk6-dSDUk5TK/s922/Alternative%20VFL-AFL%20Team%20Of%20The%20Century.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="256" data-original-width="922" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXi2XY0rHyR0pZE68fS_XoZvt9KceRa4smcpgDEzRU3CXQA5hZ1ugF57XKcr2kwJye7wEvnKjioZlCCkrE9N9nwKDnDzEWoo28AvTsDyPj2dQb9y_9h7b4lMRTgFXf8VbRVHXqGe8Naa4Ipc9y8jRJngQ8F2vUaVTtRNgz1UjLFPSk1GkRNk6-dSDUk5TK/w640-h178/Alternative%20VFL-AFL%20Team%20Of%20The%20Century.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It is mostly the same as the
official team. We ignore the ‘old guys’ on the panel though, and go back to the
‘conventional wisdom’ of the time that Regan was the greatest full-back ever,
no questions asked. Regan did poll well in the Brownlow, so we’re not just
relying on anecdotes here. Now the debate becomes whether Silvagni surpassed
Regan after 1996.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">We’ll also side with the
Herald Sun readers of the time and those Sporting Life selectors, and pick
Sutton over Smith.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The half-forward flank
situation is murky, due to Ablett Sr not being nominated there, and Bartlett
and Reynolds being nominated in multiple positions. I think we can say the
readers sided with Bartlett over Reynolds at half-forward. Whether they would
have sided with Jesaulenko or Ablett Sr over Bartlett is unclear. But since
Bartlett didn’t actually make the official team, let’s put Jesaulenko and
Ablett Sr on the half-forward flanks, and give Bartlett a spot on the bench
instead. Reynolds stays in the team too, as he made the official team, and I
think he may well have got ‘shafted’ by the selection process for the readers
team.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Note that if this selection
had happened a few years later I reckon Wayne Carey (not even nominated in
1996) would have been picked over Hart at centre half-forward, although that
may have depended upon whether Carey was involved in any scandal at the time.
So if you want an alternative ‘20<sup>th</sup> century’ VFL/AFL team, replace
Hart with Carey instead.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The 21<sup>st</sup>
century ‘greats’<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">OK, now since the VFL/AFL Team
Of The Century was released, there have been a number of attempts to update it,
on the view that it essentially stands as an ‘all-time team’ as much as a 20<sup>th</sup>
century record. For instance, one of the most ‘searchable’ attempts </span><a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/herald-sun-afl-team-of-the-century-reboot-selection-panel-makes-four-tough-changes-to-original-1996-team/news-story/19cb8b8cfd30c88f245cc73e7d1aa0c4"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">was by
the Herald Sun in 2014</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">, where they made four changes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">(Many would argue that it’s
best just to start again since the AFL started, but I’ve seen that done plenty
of times, and I’m of the view it’s one continuous league.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Below are some of the more
common suggestions I’ve seen for changes to accommodate more recent legends,
and what I think of them.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Gavin Wanganeen over Smith or
Sutton:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> I’ve warmed to this one now I’ve found out Smith may not
have clearly stood out to his contemporaries as someone extraordinary, while
noting that Wanganeen himself picked up five All-Australian selections. Both
Smith and Wanganeen won Brownlow Medals from the back pocket, so there isn’t
really a strong argument for one or the other on that basis (other than I don’t
know how Wanganeen beat Greg Williams in 1993, and </span><a href="https://en-academic.com/dic.nsf/enwiki/3733782"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Smith had an all-time
great acceptance photo</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">). As for Wanganeen v Sutton – Sutton is
more revered, though in part because he’s synonymous with one club. Wanganeen
looks more like the ideal of a modern defender. I think there’s a decent case
to be made for Wanganeen here. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">(Corey Enright and Chris
Johnson are other recent small defenders that get support, but probably more as
mainstays of successful teams – though Enright being ‘twice best-and-fairest’
of a premiership team is a nice argument to have in one’s – ahem – back pocket…)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Silvagni or Scarlett over
Regan: </span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This probably wouldn’t even be a discussion if the pre-1996
consensus had survived the Team Of The Century selection. Silvagni was pretty
much who he was by the mid-90s. Let the Magpies have this one… (Otherwise,
Silvagni v Scarlett is a tough one I reckon. I also think the stats are kind to
Dustin Fletcher.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">A ‘true’ defender over
Nicholls: </span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Yeah, a second ruck resting in the back pocket is very much
a thing of the past. But it’s still enough of the past I’d allow it,
particularly because Nicholls is generally regarded as closer in greatness to
Farmer than any ‘true’ back pocket is to him. (</span><a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/mark-robinson-dermott-brereton-and-jon-anderson-make-four-changes-to-afl-team-of-the-century/news-story/ff9078fe1f1f4b53900192ab267685c8"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Bourke
moving to the back pocket is a better suggestion than I first appreciated
though.</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Luke Hodge or Andrew McLeod
over Murray: </span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">I think there’s something to this one. Hodge
and McLeod had basically the same longevity as Murray. They definitely had more
team success, and won two Norm Smith Medals each, although not getting to the
Grand Final is hardly Murray’s fault. But even still I think Murray may have a
slight edge. He racked up best-and-fairest awards for fun, although in a relatively
poor team. Outside of the team though he not only won a Brownlow Medal, he got
a truckload of votes in his career – only Skilton had more when he retired.
Plus, there’s less doubts over his status as an ‘actual’ defender. At the
least, I don’t think either Hodge or McLeod go clearly past him.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Gary Ablett Jr, Chris Judd, Michael
Voss, James Hird, Nathan Buckley, any great inside midfielder over Bourke and
Greig:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> The All-Australian team has infamously left out ‘true’
wing players for years to fit more inside midfield stars in, and revisions of
the Team Of The Century have sometimes pulled the same thing to fit in the 21<sup>st</sup>-century
midfield stars. Were Ablett Jr, Judd, Voss, etc. better players than Bourke and
Greig? Possibly. Were any of them actually wings? Probably not. I don’t think
there’s a ‘true’ wing/outside midfielder in the 21<sup>st</sup> century that is
rated as highly as people rated Bourke and Greig. I might accept Adam Goodes,
since I’m not sure he even had a position.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Greg Williams over Stewart: </span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">I
haven’t mentioned Williams much yet, who I ‘kicked out’ of the Team Of The
Century above without comment. Williams was great. Three Brownlows beats two
though, and the readers didn’t pick Williams back in ’96. (P.S. ‘Diesel’
probably should have had three Brownlows; again, I don’t know how Wanganeen
beat him in 1993.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Carey over Hart:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> This
hurts, but I accept it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Lance Franklin over Carey:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> Hmm,
it’s tempting…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Lockett or Franklin over
Coleman: </span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">I get the argument. Lockett has kicked more goals than
anyone in VFL/AFL history. Franklin was a marvel to watch, </span><a href="https://insightlane.com/australian-football/era-adjusted-vfl-afl-goals/"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">and
has kicked the most ‘era-adjusted’ goals ever</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">. Coleman kicked about
half their total amounts before his career ended prematurely. But on </span><a href="https://insightlane.com/australian-football/era-adjusted-vfl-afl-goals/"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">goals
per game, only Hudson is close</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">. Really, the main reason why
this is even a debate seems to me simply that John Coleman dislocated his knee.
Or maybe that many more people in Australia could tell you who Lockett and
Franklin are.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Judd or Voss or Hird or
Buckley, etc. over Barassi: </span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This seems a little wrong to
consider since Barassi was central to defining the ruck rover position. As much
of an icon as he is though, he also seems to be the one that experts – when
pressed – admit was just a rung below the game’s greatest on‑ballers. I think
from a pure footballing standpoint either Judd or Voss could be considered a
better choice, I personally lean towards Judd. Lucky we have a fourth bench
spot now, so I can somewhat avoid the ire of any Demon fans reading this.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Ablett Jr over Skilton or
Bunton (or Matthews): </span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Man, you could make an argument these are four of the best players ever. Skilton got the rover spot over Bunton in
the Team Of The Century. Matthews was a star up forward, and Ablett Jr was very
capable there. I think Ablett Jr should be in the starting 18, and I’d bench
Bunton who also had by far the shortest VFL/AFL career of the four.<b> <o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Dustin Martin over Bartlett: </span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">I
reckon the consensus for best-ever Tiger shifted after Martin won his third
Norm Smith Medal in the 2020 Grand Final. Dusty probably gets in over KB now –
not that Bartlett actually ever was in the ‘official’ team – and I think
there’s a decent case he takes one of the onfield forward spots as a midfielder-forward.
Martin, Carey, and Ablett Sr as a half-forward line is the stuff of dreams or
nightmares. Jezza is more versatile coming off the bench anyway. (Could Hird be
half-forward instead of Martin? Yes that’s definitely a reasonable view, but
Martin seems to be at the ‘top of the pyramid’ now. Plus, he’s just cooler than
Hird was.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Anyone over Whitten or Doull: </span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Nope.
Although Teddy probably wasn’t anywhere near as much of a pure centre half-back
as these exercises make it seem like he was.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Taking my ‘alternative truth’
Team Of The Century as a starting point then, an updated all-time VFL/AFL team
could be this – with the benefit of a fourth interchange player like current
teams:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwAXqfywjfu7BDbRPaaKdr7s-mLYiergWjJ6X7dZ4UcYXKLea2V5DzNkH8WfgQZuGPjW1286XqFMUJdGGrRo8X0hJmpD9dmS_Bu96TTApTOh474nK7MahRGjVkVic00qNPV1nPCkY4sp_AlBRdwuU9vBZMF97vVW4UQeImr7muaXqty4Pvf_NVDLyINsVO/s922/Updated%20All-Time%20VFL-AFL%20Team.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="292" data-original-width="922" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwAXqfywjfu7BDbRPaaKdr7s-mLYiergWjJ6X7dZ4UcYXKLea2V5DzNkH8WfgQZuGPjW1286XqFMUJdGGrRo8X0hJmpD9dmS_Bu96TTApTOh474nK7MahRGjVkVic00qNPV1nPCkY4sp_AlBRdwuU9vBZMF97vVW4UQeImr7muaXqty4Pvf_NVDLyINsVO/w640-h202/Updated%20All-Time%20VFL-AFL%20Team.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">That’s not a lot of changes
given the passage of about 30 years, but </span><a href="https://australianfootball.com/articles/view/revisiting%2Bthe%2B100%2Bgreatest%2Bplayers/320"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">many
of the main stars in that time have been inside midfielders or forwards</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">. So
unless we’re somewhat ‘cheating’ to get guys like Judd or Buckley on the wings,
I think the half-back and centre lines should stay as they are. You might
disagree though.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">OK that was a bit, but hope it
was of interest. Don’t ask me about an all-time All-Australian team; I’m too
tired now to even consider how to fit Robran in…</span><o:p></o:p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-55521375282014773002023-08-14T18:21:00.000+10:002023-08-14T18:21:06.643+10:00AFL Rankings: Round 22 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgas2wuTovU7QRKHfrgfrS5Rg8EfxYHb6OCkMS4mHBpURIla_mpiuZR-GVzZmLuFV_LY-B9E0zuTWfs_w96K3mt4c-ZDGlw68AmJPeLg1yZ6RLWB8OjPKZzGkAYs4M6FXUP0mjDVG0AX2j_xLA5Ojvi7DZUbxzQt1Ut5hV-hf3_BP554iHJMYr43h2Cxk6L/s1330/AFL%20Rankings%20R22%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="1330" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgas2wuTovU7QRKHfrgfrS5Rg8EfxYHb6OCkMS4mHBpURIla_mpiuZR-GVzZmLuFV_LY-B9E0zuTWfs_w96K3mt4c-ZDGlw68AmJPeLg1yZ6RLWB8OjPKZzGkAYs4M6FXUP0mjDVG0AX2j_xLA5Ojvi7DZUbxzQt1Ut5hV-hf3_BP554iHJMYr43h2Cxk6L/w640-h326/AFL%20Rankings%20R22%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZFv5kS-nvyF3C0ondQok4B3B4LNdUSnzKxKzy4kN84haCs68LJM-8YSl1Xmv1R-em_ehv3Sd-AtqV_JMlf9K7GTdLQHfkcz3jGuu29yBCTa_TpysbATLrXIVPtO9NsnD-vEG54ukqJwISRSNNbTDMenWHemoR9S-pzS6F5P8VDiPGzIAJG8qENDwazFu6/s2013/AFL%20Statistics%20R22%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="733" data-original-width="2013" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZFv5kS-nvyF3C0ondQok4B3B4LNdUSnzKxKzy4kN84haCs68LJM-8YSl1Xmv1R-em_ehv3Sd-AtqV_JMlf9K7GTdLQHfkcz3jGuu29yBCTa_TpysbATLrXIVPtO9NsnD-vEG54ukqJwISRSNNbTDMenWHemoR9S-pzS6F5P8VDiPGzIAJG8qENDwazFu6/w640-h234/AFL%20Statistics%20R22%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
top four teams of 2023 are not in top form<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">From
Round 9 onwards this season, the top four teams on the AFL ladder have been in
some order: Collingwood, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, and Melbourne. This led many
to suggest even from midway through the season that there is a ‘clear’ group of
four frontrunners for this year’s premiership, and then about ten teams
battling it out for the other four spots in the finals.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
actual picture though may be a bit more ‘muddled’. Of my top nine ranked teams,
the four that are actually rated the ‘weakest’ over the past five weeks in
terms of ranking points are the aforementioned top four (see table below). Port
Adelaide had a strong win on the weekend, but before that lost four straight
matches. Collingwood lost by five goals to Hawthorn last week, and Brisbane
lost by seven goals to Gold Coast a couple of weeks ago. Collingwood, Brisbane,
and Melbourne have all had a couple of close wins in the past month, though
noting some of those were against the other top four sides. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRXXbXKQYUzDWlOBj041pa0Nx6l_XK0mMhCgEuG2zbba-vFN4H9ybGNywTtSqj5lnO1w89KifnOLDC7217RkJY91_M951vkLqdvPhEroMcveCg77qgmZXvAGoS9PLUIUQhQXGwhkvcxaTud8ss7h_3_vUdrn_zU_VAeUlLDCjR9cqbA5QYCuW7owuSozDV/s792/AFL%20Table%20R22%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="792" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRXXbXKQYUzDWlOBj041pa0Nx6l_XK0mMhCgEuG2zbba-vFN4H9ybGNywTtSqj5lnO1w89KifnOLDC7217RkJY91_M951vkLqdvPhEroMcveCg77qgmZXvAGoS9PLUIUQhQXGwhkvcxaTud8ss7h_3_vUdrn_zU_VAeUlLDCjR9cqbA5QYCuW7owuSozDV/w400-h194/AFL%20Table%20R22%202023.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">In
contrast, some of the teams outside the top four have been in relatively strong
form in recent weeks (see table above). Fifth-placed Carlton has won eight
matches in a row by an average of 42 points, which has also vaulted them up to
second on the rankings. Sydney have won five matches in a row and are now in
the top eight. Geelong, the Western Bulldogs, and Adelaide have all had a
couple of wins by big margins in recent weeks, though they have also had some
unexpected losses. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">To
be sure, since the top eight started in 1994 the premiership has in most years
been won by the top four teams (although really the top three), with only
Adelaide in 1998 and the Western Bulldogs in 2016 winning the flag from lower
down. Part of that is because it takes four straight wins against good teams to
win the premiership from positions five to eight, which is one extra win than
it takes for the top four. Another part of that is because the top four teams
are often considerably stronger.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, "serif"; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">The
first part of that will still be true this season. The second part however may
not be so, perhaps giving the teams outside the top four a slightly stronger
chance than most years.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJhOjp5wfnOxRXKZ5DnHKctWN1MO8na6J3zPhsBw-cqV1E0UBYLENZWGWAoW-XkEQfvgc0aEuYqaZ0AWNxPnpY2eK4yR4vKmyLtCBeAtOgia0u1cBTRuaCnI7rQpDA4huax20ROU053Kn0gEzVmszervpp5eb4w5WEotlFaTrMnMADClgBE-CLMV4NHcoy/s1245/AFL%20Predictions%20R23%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="417" data-original-width="1245" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJhOjp5wfnOxRXKZ5DnHKctWN1MO8na6J3zPhsBw-cqV1E0UBYLENZWGWAoW-XkEQfvgc0aEuYqaZ0AWNxPnpY2eK4yR4vKmyLtCBeAtOgia0u1cBTRuaCnI7rQpDA4huax20ROU053Kn0gEzVmszervpp5eb4w5WEotlFaTrMnMADClgBE-CLMV4NHcoy/w640-h214/AFL%20Predictions%20R23%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p></div>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-10872000042922906232023-08-09T18:28:00.004+10:002023-08-09T18:34:13.178+10:00The ‘Living Memory’ VFL/AFL Premiership Table<p><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif";">All AFL/VFL premierships matter. Those which happened during your lifetime probably matter more though. So what if we adjusted each team's premierships for the estimated percentage of today's people that were alive for it?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif";">To
do this, I’ve adjusted each team’s number of premierships according to the
Australian Bureau of Statistics’ age distribution for persons in Australia.
Some minor assumptions: I’ve taken zero years as 2022, and haven’t split out
100+ years, so anything before 1922 carries a weight of zero. (I also haven’t
adjusted for memory formation in one’s younger years, and memory loss in one’s
older years.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif";">As
a guide, roughly 75% of today’s population were alive for premierships in the
early-2000s, roughly 50% were alive for premierships in the mid-1980s, and
roughly 25% were alive for premierships in the mid-1960s. (You could also get a
similar result from just giving a weight of 1 to the most recent premiership,
0.99 to the next most recent, and so on.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif";">OK,
here’s the lifetime adjusted VFL/AFL premiership tally:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjkmGITthpi3v4JT8ALP6H9Mkj7WPKOSmI08syAASYc-gJibuqCy2kYPTT9GB6ZMOCOgEyHy0XketWtjLzDYiO0U0gCmr6sEbmZySqdrWoeCt9nydrXLkgVQwidWJj3a7D09Xk2ZBXnIo8wyBM6N3C8ZVX2eq5EOmPfDkr6roM6akXaq_C9IxRyAh47PEX/s669/Lifetime%20Adjusted%20VFL-AFL%20Premierships.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="669" data-original-width="401" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjkmGITthpi3v4JT8ALP6H9Mkj7WPKOSmI08syAASYc-gJibuqCy2kYPTT9GB6ZMOCOgEyHy0XketWtjLzDYiO0U0gCmr6sEbmZySqdrWoeCt9nydrXLkgVQwidWJj3a7D09Xk2ZBXnIo8wyBM6N3C8ZVX2eq5EOmPfDkr6roM6akXaq_C9IxRyAh47PEX/w240-h400/Lifetime%20Adjusted%20VFL-AFL%20Premierships.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif";">No
surprises with <b>Hawthorn</b> coming (clearly) out on top. They’ve won four
premierships since 2008, and they won another eight premierships from 1971 to
1991. If the Hawks were as successful over their whole history in the league as
they have been in the past 60-odd years they’d have twenty premierships.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif";">Richmond</span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif";"> coming second may be a slight surprise
for those who remember their 1983 to 2016 premiership drought. But they have
three premierships since 2017, which already puts them above many teams in
terms of average lifetime flags, and their five premierships from 1967 to 1980
would still be remembered/were witnessed by a decent-sized minority of the
current population.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif";">Geelong
</span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif";">are third, having won
four premierships since 2007, and <b>West Coast</b> are sixth with four
premierships since 1992. Between them sit <b>Carlton</b> and <b>Essendon </b>–
neither of which have won a premiership for over twenty years – but from 1960
to 2000 the Blues won eight premierships and the Bombers won six, so they still
have a significant proportion of their fanbases that have tasted lots of
success.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif";">Melbourne</span></b><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif";"> and <b>Brisbane</b> rank next, although
through quite different ways. The Demons of course won a premiership very
recently in 2021, so most of their fans have been alive for one premiership,
but there’s a small portion of their fanbase that have seen up to seven
premierships due to their golden run from 1955 to 1964. Brisbane meanwhile gets
its ranking from three flags in a row, back in the early 2000s.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif";">The
rest are reasonably self-explanatory in that they have low overall premiership
tallies… and then there’s <b>Collingwood</b>… The Magpies have fifteen
premierships in all, ranking them second overall, but thirteen of them came
before 1959. Even Pie supporters under the age of 30 would only have
experienced at most the one premiership in 2010. They’re essentially similar to
Melbourne in terms of flags won, but with a less recent premiership and one in
the 1990s breaking up the drought. </span><span style="font-family: Garamond, "serif";">(I promise the motivation for this exercise
wasn’t purely to ‘have a go’ at the Magpies – they still have a massive fanbase
regardless. They’ve also been in the finals plenty over that period.) </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, "serif";">So there you go. Although those premiership cups from before you were born are still taking up space in the trophy cabinet, this adjusted tally may feel a little more 'real' in terms of the 'living memories' of the AFL's current fanbases.</span></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-6342077301174155602023-08-07T20:48:00.005+10:002023-08-08T14:34:51.684+10:00AFL Rankings: Round 21 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrI2pyaSKuqTkDWajbPGNtJLa18JmjAKLTOfhNGDymSjkTbkily1ZVm-qCaMgbn2K_E-JwmnPBdSPg-H7RlY-M3zL8AQfDq8TyuplSdPBR7krOy5hz5WG8ehoNb-Y4L_k0IWzV17HmoXl6zt-0giO7HJEluhJyWatT-GaoL9-m_bLy3jWA7Q7qG7uGUkdq/s1330/AFL%20Rankings%20R21%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="1330" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrI2pyaSKuqTkDWajbPGNtJLa18JmjAKLTOfhNGDymSjkTbkily1ZVm-qCaMgbn2K_E-JwmnPBdSPg-H7RlY-M3zL8AQfDq8TyuplSdPBR7krOy5hz5WG8ehoNb-Y4L_k0IWzV17HmoXl6zt-0giO7HJEluhJyWatT-GaoL9-m_bLy3jWA7Q7qG7uGUkdq/w640-h326/AFL%20Rankings%20R21%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1ce01sEKdTKIpKBRUxSikbdj8MWKNIEeJ1qIUIxQDU9os_QlW_PQO3DP_tHG5z5HmENO-hw9eT8eDVnYsX2J1_8Va4bQ6e7zm92Dn7EhjTygayLnAwbpADZxqTnFAg15sT5coG4bMSJXjXL1pjGZ5lvi6P3wbSvaRUjtAnBcWMwg3V6z4eeTzvRj2auTN/s2013/AFL%20Statistics%20R21%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="733" data-original-width="2013" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1ce01sEKdTKIpKBRUxSikbdj8MWKNIEeJ1qIUIxQDU9os_QlW_PQO3DP_tHG5z5HmENO-hw9eT8eDVnYsX2J1_8Va4bQ6e7zm92Dn7EhjTygayLnAwbpADZxqTnFAg15sT5coG4bMSJXjXL1pjGZ5lvi6P3wbSvaRUjtAnBcWMwg3V6z4eeTzvRj2auTN/w640-h234/AFL%20Statistics%20R21%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Before
their big win this week, </span><a href="https://wwos.nine.com.au/afl/news-2023-kane-cornes-blasts-western-bulldogs-coach-luke-beveridge-after-loss-to-gws-giants-calls-for-board-to-sack-him/6e4b0f7e-07ca-4c42-8927-208b5800bb42"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Kane Cornes said that the Western Bulldogs should
discuss coach Luke Beveridge’s position at the end of the year, claiming that
the Bulldogs “were wasting one of the AFL’s great lists”</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">In
support of his claim, Cornes pointed out that the Bulldogs had three of the top
five rated players this season; midfielders Marcus Bontempelli and Tom
Liberatore, and ruck Tim English. He further claimed that they have two key
forwards in their “absolute prime” – Aaron Naughton and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan –
and noted that they still have two (former) All-Australian defenders in Bailey
Dale and Caleb Daniel.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Cornes
is right that the Bulldogs have some wonderful top-end talent. English has
probably been the league’s best ruck this year, and Bontempelli may just be the
league’s best player. Liberatore and Adam Treloar have been great in the
midfield, Jack Macrae has performed well in his shift to mid-forward, and Dale
and Daniel – along with defender Ed Richards – have again had solid seasons.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
rest of the team though has several developing players and journeymen. Naughton
at 23 years old is possibly in his ‘prime’ and has had a good season, but it is
somewhat questionable that Ugle-Hagan is at just 21, and recruit Rory Lobb –
now 30 years old and at his third club – is probably on the other side of his. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
Bulldogs’ medium forwards and key defenders are also on average below those of
other clubs, at least according to the AFL Player Ratings (see table below). Cody
Weightman has contributed almost two goals per game, but around him a rotating
cast of Rhylee West, Arthur Jones, Mitch Hannan, and Lachlan McNeil have
contributed relatively little between them. The key defenders also lack a
‘top-liner’, even noting that the Player Ratings do not capture some ‘off the
ball’ defensive work. None of Liam Jones, Alex Keath, Ryan Gardner, and Josh
Bruce rank in the top 50 for average intercepts, although Gardner is equal top
of the league for average ‘one percenters’.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6i1aDhxsxczcEkKyxoBhfmefX8xfNEvuRj9QDy-JQh8XOBrwtOfiNg8yTsflqVVFFfmFMYTp81SrOI-Jk6e_jy3Y27FlROok7E1pnbc8Kl9jrOsYonULgcPio2mJlZAhxFSyqnTpZ-p2bWqwLgcTUZ-vepbSwKimljNtm3rP7sj3fgo0I0-jOt9GBLrXk/s767/AFL%20Table%20R21%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="767" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6i1aDhxsxczcEkKyxoBhfmefX8xfNEvuRj9QDy-JQh8XOBrwtOfiNg8yTsflqVVFFfmFMYTp81SrOI-Jk6e_jy3Y27FlROok7E1pnbc8Kl9jrOsYonULgcPio2mJlZAhxFSyqnTpZ-p2bWqwLgcTUZ-vepbSwKimljNtm3rP7sj3fgo0I0-jOt9GBLrXk/w400-h183/AFL%20Table%20R21%202023.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, "serif"; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">The
Dogs’ balance of talent is reminiscent of Melbourne back in 2020, when the
Demons had three of the top-rated players in ruck Max Gawn and midfielders
Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca, but their list fell away quickly after
their top tier. In that year the Demons missed the finals; they jumped up the
next year however to win the premiership. That both shows how a few standout
players are not in themselves enough to challenge for a flag – but also that
you’re not far away if you’ve already got that top-end talent in place, and the
rest of the team follow.</span><span style="text-align: center;"> </span></p></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyDBs1n9YjhDYWxTPXc7-A0n01HXyG7Ai5iquCgaclm3CZ3KWcEfCTM8puiePDHONX0rjY1377aAts2L0krUS7ncKnGBjt8KTpRYBiI-1Dqb0AX03Il2DBn1Gt20BbZwwHMIHjR8ec05vppJf2JeHPSg_XOVyTys2iybr8_EPzCSkd6mL7upipKEPz5GdU/s1245/AFL%20Predictions%20R22%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1245" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyDBs1n9YjhDYWxTPXc7-A0n01HXyG7Ai5iquCgaclm3CZ3KWcEfCTM8puiePDHONX0rjY1377aAts2L0krUS7ncKnGBjt8KTpRYBiI-1Dqb0AX03Il2DBn1Gt20BbZwwHMIHjR8ec05vppJf2JeHPSg_XOVyTys2iybr8_EPzCSkd6mL7upipKEPz5GdU/w640-h214/AFL%20Predictions%20R22%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-76967046952375653842023-08-01T07:14:00.003+10:002023-08-01T10:13:50.263+10:00AFL Rankings: Round 20 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqvusWgwY5kd7kOX8z2CN32-VM89peDNsbh8hZ_HtsGy24bvoXyGuHCtC7BTdMZ56XvawgVarClL3drwhqiGdsa6HKAVEgDRPP0r6WQWw84TqnnNxny8wvCEMr2GcLP3d8jhn0hvbR1jWKwHCLu6F7VAa5g0CfQQKvNI34jRVDn4U2vtuddVcll1jteAvH/s1330/AFL%20Rankings%20R20%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="1330" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqvusWgwY5kd7kOX8z2CN32-VM89peDNsbh8hZ_HtsGy24bvoXyGuHCtC7BTdMZ56XvawgVarClL3drwhqiGdsa6HKAVEgDRPP0r6WQWw84TqnnNxny8wvCEMr2GcLP3d8jhn0hvbR1jWKwHCLu6F7VAa5g0CfQQKvNI34jRVDn4U2vtuddVcll1jteAvH/w640-h326/AFL%20Rankings%20R20%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl6Zuqhl0N6C-onA3qMsZjUJFnVreLchp_sD1GrqjCbupv_zKWjgvurFVokDUmn2zz-xlXPF8jLSnWk5thp1esPRg-bcSKSwIKB_dDuTfClqfgE8xx-wqm3MQza7K5Ig1RWWlhOUiVGm54L-qTIw5Kyz1netnyFZAwLyOhvTmGM5tSmXP8qQaDMsbeUxxA/s2013/AFL%20Statistics%20R20%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="733" data-original-width="2013" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl6Zuqhl0N6C-onA3qMsZjUJFnVreLchp_sD1GrqjCbupv_zKWjgvurFVokDUmn2zz-xlXPF8jLSnWk5thp1esPRg-bcSKSwIKB_dDuTfClqfgE8xx-wqm3MQza7K5Ig1RWWlhOUiVGm54L-qTIw5Kyz1netnyFZAwLyOhvTmGM5tSmXP8qQaDMsbeUxxA/w640-h234/AFL%20Statistics%20R20%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Adelaide
> Port Adelaide?!<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Before last week’s ‘Showdown’
the suggestion that Adelaide could be better than their cross-town rivals Port
Adelaide might have been met with some derision. The Power after all are
sitting second on the AFL ladder, had a club record thirteen-match winning
streak in the middle of the season, and just fell short of beating league
leaders Collingwood the week before. The Crows meanwhile had won less than half
of their games and, despite falling just short themselves in beating top four
side Melbourne on the road, were ‘languishing’ in thirteenth spot on the
ladder.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Adelaide however comfortably
beat Port Adelaide by 47 points. The Crows are still well behind the Power on
the ladder, but they did leapfrog them in the rankings, which have rated them
higher than their actual AFL ladder position for several weeks now. What’s the
deal?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Well, although Port Adelaide
has won five more games than Adelaide this season, that has been on the back of
several narrow wins for the Power, and several narrow losses for the Crows.
Port have won five games by less than ten points, against Sydney, St. Kilda,
Essendon twice, and Melbourne. In contrast Adelaide have lost to Melbourne, and
Collingwood twice, by less than a goal. Adelaide’s average winning margin is 48
points and their average losing margin is just 18 points (see table below),
while Port’s average winning margin is just 25 points and their average losing
margin is 40 points.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVQ3QuzQsW566zDcS-WfJOrT3KgWsW6NwlRhZeXd9tVKJbVm7t7kbr0hIF5i1H96VfR1UGjLEqYHgu5sOxI0b3U_ibXfofmHmGTWduV5MaU-xnDPNO7TAfe8g96pw2OWi5XIakBATgTYvxjmVrAw785j5iROvnSpMYO2FVS18FhapFasiElMux_v1TeZfy/s537/AFL%20Table%20R20%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="205" data-original-width="537" height="153" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVQ3QuzQsW566zDcS-WfJOrT3KgWsW6NwlRhZeXd9tVKJbVm7t7kbr0hIF5i1H96VfR1UGjLEqYHgu5sOxI0b3U_ibXfofmHmGTWduV5MaU-xnDPNO7TAfe8g96pw2OWi5XIakBATgTYvxjmVrAw785j5iROvnSpMYO2FVS18FhapFasiElMux_v1TeZfy/w400-h153/AFL%20Table%20R20%202023.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The result is Adelaide’s
points for compared with points against (i.e. percentage) is actually better
than Port Adelaide’s, at a fairly impressive 116 compared with 110. That is
boosted by a massive 122 point win by the Crows against bottom team West Coast,
but even taking that out the two teams have been similar in terms of their net
margins (see table above).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A good sign for Port Adelaide
being a top side is they have a great inside 50 ratio, getting the ball into
their forward area 15 per cent more than their opponents, while the Crows are
about even on this measure. But Adelaide have been more effective in scoring
when they get the ball inside 50, averaging 1.78 points per inside 50, to the
Power’s 1.59. And so it played out on the weekend, with Adelaide having only
one more inside 50 than Port Adelaide, but kicking seven more goals.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, "serif"; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">Port Adelaide are of course
in the more enviable ladder position, nestled in the top four, while Adelaide
have a large battle on their hands just to make it to the finals. But the
difference between the two sides is probably not nearly as large as the ladder
suggests, and quite encouraging for the Crows.</span></p></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH2A0Eo2WL6B9BuZc-X5iCL1bAH-XKikwTw_EBM0xFhCIYNYUxw58kYxIrrzqPL0VJiDyGs_GaNR7rWOZJagNYMmDLMvai_f3HGGqtOHB9WFqNMCbydm_z-1npQCGBGKjYH0-IN0_e5fXt4kO3PjXmeOCS35y9u_83VJjHG6HudqThhrsmxH-DujmOrhm9/s1245/AFL%20Predictions%20R21%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1245" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH2A0Eo2WL6B9BuZc-X5iCL1bAH-XKikwTw_EBM0xFhCIYNYUxw58kYxIrrzqPL0VJiDyGs_GaNR7rWOZJagNYMmDLMvai_f3HGGqtOHB9WFqNMCbydm_z-1npQCGBGKjYH0-IN0_e5fXt4kO3PjXmeOCS35y9u_83VJjHG6HudqThhrsmxH-DujmOrhm9/w640-h214/AFL%20Predictions%20R21%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-78126693738342994732023-07-26T23:20:00.005+10:002023-07-26T23:20:49.964+10:00AFL Rankings: Round 19 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixxRFLt7m1gEd-9LxWnNk0Ec8onhL8yznXAkRUnRBO32BFJsnc1t4hcCbZBRnoj-TF3ZqXgq1owKeoC24WUmMLx-YF1dCvSrf242hgu6Ree_czsrWrzKWEzTjQp59tTRmemxg80CvzCWOVUfZ9s_dgucP9Cq71pPfbg1LoXH2vZUTi1gahu1O3Exw1Idg4/s1330/AFL%20Rankings%20R19%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="1330" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixxRFLt7m1gEd-9LxWnNk0Ec8onhL8yznXAkRUnRBO32BFJsnc1t4hcCbZBRnoj-TF3ZqXgq1owKeoC24WUmMLx-YF1dCvSrf242hgu6Ree_czsrWrzKWEzTjQp59tTRmemxg80CvzCWOVUfZ9s_dgucP9Cq71pPfbg1LoXH2vZUTi1gahu1O3Exw1Idg4/w640-h326/AFL%20Rankings%20R19%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEetY2KYm43i5Bm-KDcY3yHAPcPiofD5ePI9XIv8gwbSyyvUZmEspbFfnfc07DfOW1wgKELqKdK8JexZkXfSMUZ8ntQj4gzaj3GdcGPpgmQCcuKuY48lhn8U3mWiOHsgNiHvU60Eeuexc_c_dpfJClBf4U4TgR_1XlE6YYBFCbaz6-ZTW8UdAsT5ARlyNf/s2013/AFL%20Statistics%20R19%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="733" data-original-width="2013" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEetY2KYm43i5Bm-KDcY3yHAPcPiofD5ePI9XIv8gwbSyyvUZmEspbFfnfc07DfOW1wgKELqKdK8JexZkXfSMUZ8ntQj4gzaj3GdcGPpgmQCcuKuY48lhn8U3mWiOHsgNiHvU60Eeuexc_c_dpfJClBf4U4TgR_1XlE6YYBFCbaz6-ZTW8UdAsT5ARlyNf/w640-h234/AFL%20Statistics%20R19%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It’s
the sound of the mightier Giants<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
GWS Giants had a relatively poor season in 2022, which resulted in them parting
ways with long-time coach Leon Cameron. On the ladder, they were the lowest
team other than North Melbourne and West Coast. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">As I
write this however the Giants are actually sitting in the top eight, with ten
wins from eighteen matches, including six wins in a row. Their recent form is
even better than their ladder position and ranking suggest. Until their recent
winning streak, three of their four wins had been by less than eight points,
and they were the only team this season to lose to West Coast. In contrast their
past six wins – albeit mostly against lower-ranked sides – have come at an
average winning margin of 28 points.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
Giants gained a reputation under Leon Cameron, at least in his earlier years
for being a team that relied on winning stoppages. From 2016 to their Grand
Final appearance in 2019 they ranked in the top three each year for clearance
differential. After that, they dropped away a bit and in 2022 only finished
thirteenth. Some teams can counter losses at the stoppages by winning
intercepts, but the Giants have been even weaker in intercept differential,
finishing in the bottom three in each of the past two seasons. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">However,
along has come new coach Adam Kingsley, who has experience in winning the
post-clearance contests from his time as an assistant coach at Richmond. Kingsley
currently has the Giants ranked eighth for intercept differential, including
over +10 in two of their past three matches. Leading the way is Sam Taylor,
with over ten per game and more than one per game better than anyone else in
the league, while returning defender Jack Buckley also ranks in the league’s
top 20.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
Giants still rank low for clearance differential, but essentially aren’t much
different from last year in this area. This is despite the departures of Tim
Taranto and Jacob Hopper, who are off winning stoppages for the previously mentioned
Tigers. Filling the gap have been Tom Green and Josh Kelly, alongside ruck
Kieran Briggs, who have formed a tighter inside midfield combination than the
‘midfield-by-committee’ run – whether by choice or personnel (or both) – by
Cameron.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, "serif"; font-size: 12pt; text-align: left;">GWS
now comes into a tougher stretch of games to finish the season off, starting
with arch-rival the Western Bulldogs this week, and finishing with fellow
finals aspirants Essendon and Carlton. Whether they eventually make the final
eight, after a slow start to the season, may be touch‑and‑go. Either way though,
the Giants’ prospects look brighter heading towards the end of the season than
they did heading into it.</span></p></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiumm1dr-y8ZX1To6hud9K4Jihd9ZM5AH6mswpEp_iczjcCmuKd7eXdnVxsbcwxi5Cj39bCmseyIM4Bv9z1QxQ7jv6cw0CHGhPA1QqkQJk8q8M-4mrWVveSPNhEfBwydmyK5YtqE6rywuTTpfXxqbOdTB_S6HErQWo-jWqQdWF0Wjh38n05kR_Aoxajoyp2/s1245/AFL%20Predictions%20R20%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1245" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiumm1dr-y8ZX1To6hud9K4Jihd9ZM5AH6mswpEp_iczjcCmuKd7eXdnVxsbcwxi5Cj39bCmseyIM4Bv9z1QxQ7jv6cw0CHGhPA1QqkQJk8q8M-4mrWVveSPNhEfBwydmyK5YtqE6rywuTTpfXxqbOdTB_S6HErQWo-jWqQdWF0Wjh38n05kR_Aoxajoyp2/w640-h214/AFL%20Predictions%20R20%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-50977918457258302092023-07-17T21:12:00.000+10:002023-07-17T21:12:32.732+10:00AFL Rankings: Round 18 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM-DK8oZ4yALpY-ovSVOVD5t4oFKwXbYgTlb_uw1fDewvJQFIwi4JYoF5jDe0Zd6A8KBRgYK1Kzo8Zm-LyqrMq9YYen91PcwjnUPMqP6r27L65q1zWU8Zj0lGkfcFcDLT1Wlqu-F7jspX_FopPsMohGpJY0j5RDBmIc6nZNU9ZTbddkRrY3qqiZoXCj-FF/s1330/AFL%20Rankings%20R18%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="1330" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM-DK8oZ4yALpY-ovSVOVD5t4oFKwXbYgTlb_uw1fDewvJQFIwi4JYoF5jDe0Zd6A8KBRgYK1Kzo8Zm-LyqrMq9YYen91PcwjnUPMqP6r27L65q1zWU8Zj0lGkfcFcDLT1Wlqu-F7jspX_FopPsMohGpJY0j5RDBmIc6nZNU9ZTbddkRrY3qqiZoXCj-FF/w640-h326/AFL%20Rankings%20R18%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_xKH9cOy4CuNDrYcLkMoRdn7nJxLSNP48g5oDTOMezQgZ4nd-CmdsDGIvkbvoiWE21M_VqeyiQSboRwfsr0nA3Qibsj0sxIzdk-i0B3yCClyv3NRhbYhEtXk6M7cYvrTI0s92eRw7y-7mMprNGGgl3xHAuZRUP7ra8aCe53XaF8ub-DueIdvdqRbdaAsb/s2013/AFL%20Statistics%20R18%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="733" data-original-width="2013" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_xKH9cOy4CuNDrYcLkMoRdn7nJxLSNP48g5oDTOMezQgZ4nd-CmdsDGIvkbvoiWE21M_VqeyiQSboRwfsr0nA3Qibsj0sxIzdk-i0B3yCClyv3NRhbYhEtXk6M7cYvrTI0s92eRw7y-7mMprNGGgl3xHAuZRUP7ra8aCe53XaF8ub-DueIdvdqRbdaAsb/w640-h234/AFL%20Statistics%20R18%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nick
Daicos and the Magpies are now as good as the ‘hype’<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Last
season, Collingwood won eleven games in a row and were two points away from a
Grand Final berth. Many analysts argued though (and I would be one of them)
that the Magpies won more games than you would expect given their general
performances, </span><a href="https://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/1249259/the-season-that-was-2022"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">given they won nine matches by single-figure
margins, including seven wins in a row by less than two goals</span></a><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">. This year however, Collingwood currently sit on
top of the ladder with 15 wins and a sizable percentage gap, and most fans and analysts
would consider them one of the best teams, if not the best team. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">This
change in rating is reflected in that of the Magpies’ young star Nick Daicos.
Daicos at just 19 years of age received a lot of media notice in his first
season in 2022. While he was impressive for a first-season player however, he
was probably not among the league’s ‘elite’ players.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">This
year though, he looks to be very deserving of his favouritism in the Brownlow
Medal. Daicos has jumped from 26 to 33 disposals a game (see table below), and
now ranks first in the league this season. They’re not ‘empty’ touches either.
Daicos ranks eleventh in the league for average metres gained, and eleventh for
average score involvements, while averaging over nine contested possessions per
game. He did not even rank in the top 150 for contested possessions and score
involvements last season. He also ranks in the top twenty for average disposals
per turnover, again after not even being in the top 150 last season.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6AD7jtzCdzfOfEvTAS3fiZ4SBI3YHK9hjJkVfD-eHmUh0IZ8teifBrUHi2ZwJ3hZe7iLaPiymHBydPc4iNIo4Wq6t7cTJYZn6kZeON79arMINnp09gSrntBEif3uNV9pSq6KiIiDYMBx7bfiR4IxefnjBWFK1Y0RPOce1unBA_Vo5-Q1BXR5NeWzEUYti/s697/AFL%20Table%20R18%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="697" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6AD7jtzCdzfOfEvTAS3fiZ4SBI3YHK9hjJkVfD-eHmUh0IZ8teifBrUHi2ZwJ3hZe7iLaPiymHBydPc4iNIo4Wq6t7cTJYZn6kZeON79arMINnp09gSrntBEif3uNV9pSq6KiIiDYMBx7bfiR4IxefnjBWFK1Y0RPOce1unBA_Vo5-Q1BXR5NeWzEUYti/w400-h239/AFL%20Table%20R18%202023.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Essentially
Daicos is doing the things he did in defence last season, and still doing them
while he spends more time in the midfield. He is averaging over one more inside
50 and two more score involvements per game, while averaging about the same
number of rebound 50s. He has increased his contested possessions per game,
while improving his metres gained and ability to retain possession. Daicos this
season is an amazing blend of a player who has the ‘outside’ game of a general
defender <i>and</i> the ‘inside’ game of an attacking midfielder. This is why
he is third on the AFL Player Ratings this season, behind only the similarly
amazing Marcus Bontempelli and Clayton Oliver (who has played only ten games).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, "serif"; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">Collingwood
and Daicos last season were probably a case of seeming a bit better than they
actually were through some famous close wins. This year I’d say they are
actually performing as well as their ‘reputation’ suggests. Things are still
close enough among the top teams that I still wouldn’t be claiming it's the Magpies' 'flag to lose' this season. But Nick Daicos and Collingwood
look to have at least as good a chance as anyone.</span></p></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAF6aJUmmCA7Hw7NHM1_op256OTCEq4jKEqgtCBQ0LXiT_XH7Xsp1hpRw7L9hmG8Sq2tkpvlb2e-jXjhegVdleZ84XPpb5kNttbIFTMzllzxDHt_3VQ-qv_Hv5SkqUn3clCdmwElpYiwQafx2kdBYSIxjIuoiMCQhj2kgPOgOXsg5S3JGk3B6XrCHcJtDC/s1245/AFL%20Predictions%20R19%202023.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1245" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAF6aJUmmCA7Hw7NHM1_op256OTCEq4jKEqgtCBQ0LXiT_XH7Xsp1hpRw7L9hmG8Sq2tkpvlb2e-jXjhegVdleZ84XPpb5kNttbIFTMzllzxDHt_3VQ-qv_Hv5SkqUn3clCdmwElpYiwQafx2kdBYSIxjIuoiMCQhj2kgPOgOXsg5S3JGk3B6XrCHcJtDC/w640-h214/AFL%20Predictions%20R19%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-28320645521766667102023-07-10T19:48:00.004+10:002023-07-10T20:32:58.792+10:00AFL Rankings: Round 17 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyH7LMjgByLFRO92NWDa3W5-k7s42qS4-dSXANjIua2WalJ3_K9rZTxFtfZnAa4VC-66siHwbObhVAj8PgetSfVFiD5kzEDbkA3eeqS-IXjgCewJ3yOlxd0kbVKtG8cgIsMSe54l_F3rRnB7ppUjZvOp2eNwvz14HY3PFQd-qAQmItcQw6au66Om7apQeZ/s1330/AFL%20Rankings%20R17%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="1330" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyH7LMjgByLFRO92NWDa3W5-k7s42qS4-dSXANjIua2WalJ3_K9rZTxFtfZnAa4VC-66siHwbObhVAj8PgetSfVFiD5kzEDbkA3eeqS-IXjgCewJ3yOlxd0kbVKtG8cgIsMSe54l_F3rRnB7ppUjZvOp2eNwvz14HY3PFQd-qAQmItcQw6au66Om7apQeZ/w640-h326/AFL%20Rankings%20R17%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq9KRGJnHL8fHTqjXbC32xiZSmuZ7v9B-97Vql4m_u1bmR4yWhT383sCDvUjGVyQh2AA_Hkj1kM4AIlD-i32cUZNjPuHU3o2gb-Swtn_8JGf26PjeYVXvBrQzgWpYP5zAzFzQ0g4WRpXdMZn6jv_0deWvz5Pt-3oUfe_-TS5KYaJNq0ffG3excMdL68w2p/s2013/AFL%20Statistics%20R17%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="733" data-original-width="2013" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq9KRGJnHL8fHTqjXbC32xiZSmuZ7v9B-97Vql4m_u1bmR4yWhT383sCDvUjGVyQh2AA_Hkj1kM4AIlD-i32cUZNjPuHU3o2gb-Swtn_8JGf26PjeYVXvBrQzgWpYP5zAzFzQ0g4WRpXdMZn6jv_0deWvz5Pt-3oUfe_-TS5KYaJNq0ffG3excMdL68w2p/w640-h234/AFL%20Statistics%20R17%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A few weeks ago, Carlton were
‘slumping’ so badly that <a href="https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/carlton-blues/afl-2023-michael-voss-future-at-carlton-blues-coach-factions-developing-from-players-questions-at-board-level-report-latest-news/news-story/73c0b2aeb1dee21d2530c835f0e8beed">football
fans and media were speculating about coach Michael Voss’ future with the club</a>.
Despite losing six games straight though, the Blues’ form was not quite as bad
as it seemed. The six losses came at an average of 25 points, but included
losses to top sides Brisbane, Collingwood, and Melbourne. Inaccuracy in front
of goal also hurt the Blues, as they had only 16 less scoring shots than their
opponents over those weeks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Things have turned around
significantly for Carlton over the past month. The Blues have won each of their
past three matches by over 50 points, albeit against much easier competition
than they faced during their losing streak. The rankings now have them as the
eighth-ranked side (although aside from the top five and the bottom three, the
other teams are so close that a couple of good wins can quickly move a side
around the rankings).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Carlton has by far the highest
disposal differential this season (+27), which was somewhat a source of
criticism when they were hanging on to the ball and still losing. But they also
rate second for contested possession differential (+8), as they did last
season, indicating they can win the ‘tough ball’ as well. That includes the
league’s best contested mark differential (+2.8), with big forwards Charlie
Curnow and Harry McKay ranked equal first.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, "serif"; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">Other main indicators also
suggest Carlton are around the mark for a finals side, ranking second in
differential for intercepts, sixth for clearances, and ninth for inside 50s. The
main concern for them is whether they have left their finals run too late. They
currently sit one win and percentage away from eighth position with seven
rounds left, and have a few tough matches to come, including Port Adelaide this
week who are riding a thirteen-game winning streak. Nevertheless, the rankings
have liked what they’ve seen from Carlton over the past few weeks enough that,
with the home ground advantage, they are tipped to win by one point over the
Power. If that happens, that would certainly give the Blues’ season – and morale
– a bit of a boost.</span></p></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh29bo3wSy-DOvhmbPV4QZXbm-yB5HRrYanTJfCmjZd0CkADeTkEduRCvWR8SMES1rifxP7_oxdeULwdOP2LMHQKcYqCfhSsl62kaK7x4deP3XvVKezwgal4zArstkcUariEEl9UgTK9D7cOedP3Euwiy3HVwwF-18BrtqMJrACWD0vKu-MCJqQI_MHIXTl/s1245/AFL%20Predictions%20R18%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1245" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh29bo3wSy-DOvhmbPV4QZXbm-yB5HRrYanTJfCmjZd0CkADeTkEduRCvWR8SMES1rifxP7_oxdeULwdOP2LMHQKcYqCfhSsl62kaK7x4deP3XvVKezwgal4zArstkcUariEEl9UgTK9D7cOedP3Euwiy3HVwwF-18BrtqMJrACWD0vKu-MCJqQI_MHIXTl/w640-h214/AFL%20Predictions%20R18%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8653547980549919288.post-19788438694042913492023-07-04T09:03:00.004+10:002023-07-04T13:05:53.897+10:00AFL Rankings: Round 16 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzka8tsDF6tJ0OiAQW40bI2Alz0Nr1VCEX_JBkD07YCOPJaKuXoJ1JUh1zq_pEUBpjlI5LjhNkfOtU8SgxC6IJZ0-1gHmNBLNxK535mATqLh8BfPm6Gc-Kfbnw95gs2a4DnEkNt9ffIwUEPErF6edvoXZKbMRDR8kfwAZ1tdmyLKER9Z_3tHY9gagUgGt8/s1330/AFL%20Rankings%20R16%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="1330" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzka8tsDF6tJ0OiAQW40bI2Alz0Nr1VCEX_JBkD07YCOPJaKuXoJ1JUh1zq_pEUBpjlI5LjhNkfOtU8SgxC6IJZ0-1gHmNBLNxK535mATqLh8BfPm6Gc-Kfbnw95gs2a4DnEkNt9ffIwUEPErF6edvoXZKbMRDR8kfwAZ1tdmyLKER9Z_3tHY9gagUgGt8/w640-h326/AFL%20Rankings%20R16%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqA1PM4B4_4eRoIkpYRlJnzA9bl2AHv8wUWCpwBdIXEEtpsxgwUmUUbmDPRJPDIsgRukGhLgkVXdL_FVHBK335RZF2SVES23jnabveXqF3oWsmMtEY3QFXmtBhT2bbbZ4fdbMBct7P4fLUa1cB5sJ9coFXX5xCMc9rRbNM0Tl_EE3PAeVKOeS5PzPSqbNL/s2013/AFL%20Statistics%20R16%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="733" data-original-width="2013" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqA1PM4B4_4eRoIkpYRlJnzA9bl2AHv8wUWCpwBdIXEEtpsxgwUmUUbmDPRJPDIsgRukGhLgkVXdL_FVHBK335RZF2SVES23jnabveXqF3oWsmMtEY3QFXmtBhT2bbbZ4fdbMBct7P4fLUa1cB5sJ9coFXX5xCMc9rRbNM0Tl_EE3PAeVKOeS5PzPSqbNL/w640-h234/AFL%20Statistics%20R16%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Melbourne
‘blow it’ but still look formidable<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Melbourne
had a costly loss on the weekend in terms of their hopes of finishing in the
top four, losing to GWS by two points. This put them two wins behind Brisbane
in third place, and four wins behind Collingwood and Port Adelaide.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">It
was a game that Melbourne ‘shouldn’t have lost’. They had eight more scoring
shots than the Giants, but were inaccurate in front of goal, scoring 5.15. They
had 73 entries inside 50 to the Giants’ 46. And they had 44 more contested
possessions than GWS, including 48 clearances to 28. That sort of dominance in
both winning the ball and gaining territory would usually get you the win.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">It
somewhat captures what have been the strengths and weaknesses for Melbourne
this season. They lead the league for inside 50s and contested possessions.
However, they are thirteenth for scoring shots per inside 50, while Port
Adelaide and Brisbane are in the top five. It’s a familiar result for Melbourne
over the past few years, <a href="http://troywheatley.blogspot.com/2021/04/afl-rankings-round-4-2021.html">where
their midfield and defence have been stellar</a>, but they have struggled
relative to other teams to convert their forward entries into scores.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Melbourne
also lost a close game to Fremantle by seven points at the MCG a few weeks
back, despite an inside 50 differential of +6 and a contested possession
differential of +16. Aside from that their losses have been mostly ‘expected’,
losing to Port Adelaide, Brisbane, and Geelong away, with the exception being
their 27-point loss to Essendon in Adelaide. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Garamond","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Collingwood
also lost when they played Brisbane away and they narrowly beat Adelaide (away
and at home), while Port Adelaide got thumped by Collingwood on the road and
have famously snuck home in a few matches during their current twelve-match
winning streak. Which is not to say they aren’t very good teams as well, just
that the difference between them and Melbourne may not be nearly as large as
the current ladder suggests.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Garamond, "serif"; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">Those
losses for Melbourne did ultimately occur however, and they’ve found themselves
with some work to do to finish in the top four. Most ladder projections still
have them making it, with their two hardest match-ups against Brisbane and
Adelaide coming at home. If they get there they would still fancy their chances
in a first-up final, particularly if it was at the MCG against Collingwood, but
they could improve their chances even more by getting their forward set-up
working better.</span></p></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjer6BQy5wH4ya__pB2RZFwLm1zVkO91AoEHJa_h3J5abmmVlIzJAdltTx_XEDDleONrFIYJUCGe078GwRDQ2NUXugUG4qpJv2tDOCHtxkNvmIpNdr04K_gy9_h019zB5zWFHkVtvP-zCoGlP-akMoffkI8SzAR3-z0tIPEMpHGIvU27gcUYFHr9KaGSsMS/s1245/AFL%20Predictions%20R17%202023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1245" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjer6BQy5wH4ya__pB2RZFwLm1zVkO91AoEHJa_h3J5abmmVlIzJAdltTx_XEDDleONrFIYJUCGe078GwRDQ2NUXugUG4qpJv2tDOCHtxkNvmIpNdr04K_gy9_h019zB5zWFHkVtvP-zCoGlP-akMoffkI8SzAR3-z0tIPEMpHGIvU27gcUYFHr9KaGSsMS/w640-h214/AFL%20Predictions%20R17%202023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>Troy Wheatleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13021214034890190625noreply@blogger.com0