Am I Being Dudded At Supercoach or What Does Champion Data Know About Aussie Rules Anyway?

One of the constant frustrations for my AFL Herald-Sun Supercoach Team has been watching a player rack up a bucketload of possessions on the weekend only to have them score pitifully for my fantasy team come Monday morning. For those unfamiliar with the great time-waster that is AFL Supercoach, you pick a team of 22 players and they score points for you based on their effectiveness. However, the actual formula for a player’s score is a mystery; instead, you are simply told that it is based on a formula devised by a mob called Champion Data. A search of the Champion Data website reveals a few further details – effective long kicks score highly, miscued kicks score badly – but the precise formula remains a trade secret.

This raises the question of whether Champion Data are rewarding or penalizing players in a fair and accurate manner. They claim that their formula has been devised using ‘research into winning and losing factors in AFL games’. This could mean that, the higher your Champion Data score, the more likely your team’s score will be higher relative to the other team (i.e. your team’s percentage will be higher) or that the higher your score, the more likely it is that your team will win, whether it be by one point or 100 points. I’m going to assume the former explanation is true, since it seems to make more sense. But how well does it work in practice?

Not that surprisingly, it tends to work pretty well. The figure below compares the actual percentage of each AFL team over the first 21 rounds of the 2007 season to their estimated percentage using their cumulative Champion Data scores. Apart from West Coast, the results are all pretty close.

Team Percentages and Cumulative Champion Data Scores Over 2007 AFL Season


Importantly, the Champion Data scores appear to perform better at predicting a team’s success than simply looking at that team’s number of possessions. The root mean squared error using the Champion Data scores (which is basically just a method of summarizing the difference between a team’s actual percentage and its predicted percentage) is about half of that which you would get if you used the number of possessions. Incidentally, the formula for the Dream Team competition on the AFL website doesn’t do much better at predicting a team’s success than possessions do.

Formula	Root Mean Squared Error
Champion Data	8.1
Possessions	15.7
AFL Dream Team	15.1

Readers of my post Win Score and the Productivity of Basketball Players will know that post also talked about a formula that did pretty well at predicting the success of a (basketball) team, but that I had reservations about how well it did at attributing this success to particular players. So how well does the Champion Data formula do in this respect? My guess is that similar types of problems apply, namely how do you account for the value of defenders who aim to prevent other players from collecting possessions rather than gathering possessions themselves, and how much credit should be given to the player who ultimately puts the score on the board? But I’m fairly satisfied that the Champion Data formula does a better job than simply looking at the raw numbers. On the other hand, if my Supercoach team loses its Grand Final this weekend, well…

Still I Don't Know How To Get Out of Bed (AKA The Bed Song)

Note: People who have known me for a while will have seen different lyrics to this song. The reason for changing them is simple: I was 18. Those lyrics sucked. These suck less.

Another hazy morning, another half-dreamt song
We will never trust each other while something can go wrong
I can’t forget my feelings or remember what you said
Still I don’t know how to get out of bed

If the end has passed, the beginning must be near
Should I spread across the earth or build my tower here?
There’s too little that I know and too much that I’ve read
Still I don’t know how to get out of bed

Love is cool, love is fine, love is a splintered thing
Love is beyond space and time, love is adrenaline
Love is the question and the answer, but that’s all in my head
Still I don’t know how to get out of bed

The Vines: Highly Exiled

When Sydney-siders the Vines’ debut album, ‘Highly Evolved’, was released in 2002, it shot to #3 On the UK charts and #11 On the US charts. Was this considered a notable achievement for Australian music? Some thought so, but others argued that it wasn’t really an Australian album as the band weren’t really based in Australia anymore, and the album was recorded in Los Angeles. At the Australian Recording Industry Awards for that year, the Vines picked up only one gong, losing out to George (ugh!) for best breakthrough talent, Kylie Minogue (urk!) for single of the year, and Silverchair (gag!) for best group and best rock album.

What a load of garbage! Nowadays, nothing is more Australian than getting the hell out of Australia. For any Australian under the age of 30, chances are that half the people he or she knew five years ago are on the other side of the world right now. Far from being an example of three young men turning their back on this country, ‘Highly Evolved’ is the quintessential Australian album of the new century for the very reason that it captures this tendency to pack up and ship off so brilliantly.

Not convinced? Allow me to demonstrate what I mean using a selection of lyrics from the album. Below each tidbit of Vines-speak I’ve added a translation of what Vines’ songwriter and frontman Craig Nicholls really means. Whether you’re the person who has left these shores or been left behind, you’ll recognize in Mr Nicholls’ words our national belief that the grass is always greener in the other hemisphere.

Vines-speak: Heads are down/ And all the people frown/ In the fac-to-reee (in the fac-to-ree)/ I’m so down I put my head around/ Every noose I see (Factory)

Translation: As every Vines fan knows, Craig dropped out of school in tenth grade and ended up working in McDonalds. (Of course, he then sold bundles of records, so I suppose he had the last laugh.) Anyway, bringing home that lousy Australian currency was apparently a bit dispiriting for our budding songwriter. Which leads to this conclusion…

Vines-speak: I’m gonna get freeeeeee/ I’m gonna get freeeeee/ I’m gonna get freeeeee/ Riiiide into the sun (Get Free)

Translation: Craig is outtahere! He takes along Patrick from McDonalds and some drummer and they head off overseas to make a name for themselves. It’s somewhere other than here so it must be better, right? So pick up your guitars, boys, and hit the friendly skies. Those losers back in the suburbs can eat your dust.

Vines-speak: I feel so happy/ So high-ly e-volllved … Dream-ing for something, reac-hing for somethiii-eeeeeng (Highly Evolved)

Translation: Ah yes, they can picture it now. There’s something… and, uh, well, there’s something else… and yeah, something else good… just wait until they touch down, you’ll see…

Vines-speak: I left my hooooommmmee, I left my hoooo-oooooommmmee, yeah yeah… Without my phooooonnnnee, without my phoooo-oooooonnnnee, yeah yeah (Homesick)

Translation: Proof that Craig Nicholls is different to the rest of the human race. Nobody does this.

Vines-speak: It’s 1969 in my heeeeeaaaad!/ I just wanna haaaave no plaaaace to go/ I’m living thru the sound of the deeeeeaaaaad! (1969)

Translation: Craig flew into London and the Beatles weren’t there. And it’s bloody freezing!

Vines-speak: Nothing’s gonna save you (nothing’s gonna save you)/ Nothing’s gonna save you (nothing’s gonna) out theeeerrrrrr-eeeerrrre (Homesick)

Translation: Another reference to the crappy weather in the northern hemisphere. Also Craig has realized that, due to the large amount of Aussie ex-pats in London, all the morons who beat him up at school are here as well.

Vines-speak: I have been crying in my sleep/ Cause I don’t know where I’ve been/ I just want to live to see another day/ Hey Hey Hey Hey/ Hey Hey Hey Hey/ Hey Hey Hey Hey/ Hey Hey Hey Hey/ Hey Hey Hey Hey/ Hey Hey Hey Hey/ Hey Hey Hey Hey/ Hey Hey Hey Hey (1969)

Translation: London sucks just as much as Sydney did, so Craig and company have to chant themselves to sleep. They’re coming to the realization that they chose the wrong country. So it’s time to visit that other big brother of a nation across the Atlantic. Let’s see how that works out.

Vines-speak: You know you really oughta/ Move out-ta Californyerrr (Get Free)

Translation: Not so well then. Craig’s miserable at home and he’s miserable abroad, and since time travel is an impossibility he’s going to have to find some place in this world to be. Which leads to this conclusion…

Vines-speak: I really don’t need a chaaaaaa-nge/ I really don’t need what’s miiiiiii-ne/ Out in a country yaaaa-rrrrd/ It-’ll be just fine (Country Yard)

Translation: Of course, when life in the city gets too much, you can always take a sea change into the Aussie country. Craig dreams of going the time-honoured ‘tortured genius’ route and becoming a virtual recluse. But won’t that tie him down? How can he fulfil his yearning to escape? We all know the answer…

Vines-speak: Why should I lose/ When I-‘ve got to goooo/ Maaar-y Jaaaaane/ Maaar-y Jaaaaane (Mary Jane)

Translation: In the end, there are always the drugs.

Win Score and the Productivity of Basketball Players

In The Wages of Wins: Taking Measure of the Many Myths in Modern Sport, authors David Berri, Martin Schmidt and Stacey Brook construct a metric for determining the productivity of each player in the National Basketball Association, known as Win Score. The Win Score formula is as follows:

Win Score = Points + Possession gained (rebounds, steals) – Possession lost (turnovers, field goal shots, ½ free throws) + ½ Offensive help (assists) + ½ Defensive help (blocks) – ½ Help opponent (fouls)[1]

They find that this metric does a pretty good job at predicting the number of games that a team will win over the course of the season. A strong point of this method is that it recognizes that the players that score the most points are not always the most productive. For example, a player who scores 30 points but makes only 25 per cent of their field goals is not a very efficient scorer, and may well have harmed their team’s chance of winning. However, the formula has come in for criticism for allegedly favouring rebounders over scorers. Under the formula, a top scorer like Allen Iverson is considered to be only an average player, while rebounding king Dennis Rodman is considered to be a superstar on par with Michael Jordan. Now I don’t subscribe to the theory that scoring should be seen as an inherently harder skill to master. As far as I am concerned, a player can be productive through being either a dead-eye shooter, a monster on the boards or a pin-point passer. My main concern is that the Win Score doesn’t weigh up these attributes equally. To see why, imagine a simplified version of basketball in which two players, A and B, take turns shooting from a designated spot on the court. After each shot, two other players, C and D, go up for the rebound. If C rebounds the ball, A takes the next shot, and if D rebounds the ball, B takes the next shot. If A makes a shot, B takes the next shot, and vice versa. Let’s say the statistics at the end of the game are as below:

Player A: 0 for 6, 0 points
Player B: 2 for 3, 4 points
Player C: 4 rebounds
Player D: 3 rebounds
Team E (Players A and C): 0 points
Team F (Players B and D): 4 points
Team F wins.

Now under Win Score, Player C would be the most productive player (4 points), followed by Player D (3 points), Player B (1 point) and Player A (-6 points). However, I would argue that Player B is clearly the most productive player. The reason that Team F has won is because Player B was much more effective at shooting than Player A. If A and B had shot with the same accuracy:

Player A: 2 for 6, 4 points
Player B: 1 for 3: 2 points
Player C: 4 rebounds
Player D: 2 rebounds
Team E: 4 points
Team F: 2 points
Team E wins

In this case, Player C is the most productive player, and Player D is the least productive. This is because, with A and B being equally effective at scoring, C’s extra rebounds are responsible for getting Team E over the line. (Under Win Score Player C would still be the most productive, but Player D would be more productive than Players A and B.)

Or to put it another way, if each team performs each skill equally well, nobody should win or lose. The difference between winning and losing is determined by differences in skill levels.

Now of course in a real game of basketball all players are able to both score and rebound, but the key point still remains that a player’s ability to perform a skill should be measured relative to everybody else’s ability to perform that skill. But with Win Score a player’s ability to rebound is overvalued relative to a player’s ability to score. Berri and company do calculate a Position-Adjusted Win Score, which could arguably take account of this fact, but that limits a player in a particular position to a particular role when in reality they may have another role in which they help their team (e.g. a point guard may be an efficient shooter rather than an efficient passer). Another argument is that Win Score does account for a player’s ability to score relative to other players’ abilities simply because it includes both points scored and field goals missed. However, that assumes each player takes their shots from a designated spot and with the same amount of defensive pressure. Allen Iverson might have made 40 per cent of his shots and Dennis Rodman might have made 55 per cent of his shots, but Iverson may still be a more efficient scorer because if Rodman had the same role as Iverson and was facing the same defensive pressure he might have only made 20 per cent of his shots. Or to put it another way, if Rodman had been a shooter of average skill he might have made 70 per cent of the shots that he had, and he hurt his team by only shooting at 55 per cent. Win Score does not account for this possibility.

Another problem is that Win Score gives full credit to the rebounder for gaining a possession and attributes full blame to the shooter for losing a possession. The latter is probably not so much of a problem because if a shooter should not always receive full blame for losing a possession (for instance, if the rest of his team is standing around twiddling their thumbs and he’s playing one-on-five) he probably should not always receive full credit for scoring the basket either (for instance, if the power forward sets a bone-shattering screen on the defender). But again this is going to overvalue players who happen to be very good at rebounding at the expense of the players who are very good at other skills.

It is difficult to see how any metric could address either of these problems. The first is hard to solve because we do not know the counterfactual while the second is hard to solve because it relies on intangibles. The Win Score metric is on the right track to working out the key factors between winning and losing. The tricky part is deciding who is truly responsible.[2]


[1] This method for writing out the formula was actually used in a power point presentation by Joe Price and Justin Wolfers.
[2] By my reckoning, the final point margin is determined entirely by a team’s ability relative to the other team to create scoring opportunities and the team’s ability relative to the other team to capitalize on scoring opportunities. The first term would incorporate rebounds, steals and turnovers, while the second term would incorporate shooting percentages and assists. To work out a player’s productivity you would have to work out that player’s contribution to each of those two terms. Er, good luck.

The Harry Potter Diary

Page 1 – Welcome to my running diary of the final book in the Harry Potter ‘septology’ – the ominously titled ‘Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows’. I thought of marking my progress by the clock, but have decided, in the interests of preventing people from knowing how slowly I read, to use the page count instead.

So here we are, and the question that every reader is asking is: which major characters are headed to the great Quidditch field in the sky? I’m going to assume that Harry, Ron and Hermione are all untouchable; Hagrid looks to be a possibility (five books too late for Robbie Coltrane’s liking); McGonagall seems unlikely given Dumbledore’s recent ‘death’; Neville is a possibility; Snape and Malfoy are definite possibilities, particularly if JK goes the Anakin Skywalker route; all the other Weasleys, except maybe Ginny, seem to be fair game; Lupin, Moody and Tonks are probably too minor for their deaths to cause much of a stir; ditto for Luna Lovegood. All things considered, I’m going to go for Snape and Mr.Weasley. And Lord Voldemort…? I think he’s toast.

(Another point I should add: it took me forty-five minutes to queue up and receive a copy. I was put into this huge, snake-like line that wound its way through every nook and cranny of the second floor of Borders. And I discovered something: there are a lot of boring books in the world. There really are.)

Page 7 – JK opens with some ominous quotations about death as ‘the grinding scream’ but also as ‘but crossing the world, as friends do the seas’. I’d say the first quotation is meant to describe Voldemort, the second our dearly departed Dumbledore. Nice touch.

Page 11 – Is Snape throwing the Dark Lord off Harry’s trail with his talk about Confundus charms? I wonder who Voldermort’s prisoner is? Hope it’s not poor Neville.

Page 17 – Nope, not Neville; it’s a teacher from Hogwarts. Voldemort seems to be testing Snape’s loyalty here.

Page 24 – Harry’s just read an article filling in the details of Dumbledore’s life. At the end of the last book I didn’t really believe that Dumbledore was dead, but I’ve since been assured that it’s so. However, I reckon he’s still going to have a major presence in this volume, a la Obi-Wan Kenobi. ‘Use the Fawkes, Harry… the Fawkes…,’

Page 47 – The first example of a standard JK device that’s served her well over the course of the series: give the chapter an intriguing title – i.e. ‘The Seven Potters’ - and then use an interesting magic trick to push the story forward, in this case, turning Harry’s friends into doppelgangers of himself to put the Death Eaters off the track. Throw in a few jokes, and the kiddies are hooked.

Page 52 – No! The Death Eaters killed Hedwig! JK, you filthy murderer! I wonder how the kiddies who got the free owls from Borders are feeling now…

Page 69 – And now Mad-Eye Moody’s gone (along with George Weasley’s ear). JK, you blood-hungry slaughterer! Jeez, seventy pages in and already we’re three characters down. (At this rate, the bodycount will be up to two dozen by the book’s end.) Is there an R-rating sticker hidden under the barcode here?

Page 83 – Good to see that, even sans Hogwarts, the Potter/Weasley/Granger detective team will still be in full swing.

Page 99 – ‘then she was kissing him as she had never kissed him before, and Harry was kissing her back, and it was blissful oblivion, better than Firewhisky; she was the only real thing in the world…’ Harry and Ginny have never seemed quite right to me; a bit too schmoopie and cutesy-pie perhaps. In fact, no girl has ever really seemed right for Harry; to me, he’s more of a lone wolf, the boy who carries a burden nobody else can share. Maybe Harry and Ginny have been hooked up to emphasise this point.

Page 101 – What’s up with Lupin?

Page 119 – Note to whoever makes the film of this book: make Hermione’s dress for the wedding lilac-coloured, or I’ll be hearing about it from my lovely fiancé for the next five years. You may not think it’s important, but believe me, it is. Please, just do me this favour.

Page 122 – It’s all a bit too happy at the moment with Bill and Fleur’s wedding. If this keeps up, I may have to turn on the Collingwood versus Essendon match to remind myself of what true evil is.

Page 133 – ‘The Ministry has fallen. Scrimgeour is dead.’ JK, you callous wordsmith! (I realize that’s not much of an insult, but I can’t really muster up that much indignation about Scrimgeour.)

Page 158 – Mundungus Fletcher stole a Horcrux, hey? Curiouser and curiouser… While the fantastical elements of Harry have often been cited as the series’ main appeal, I think equal credit should be given to JK’s ability to sustain a mystery. She’s very good at concocting twists and turns and at letting out just the right amount of information at just the right time. There’s been more wand-waving action from ‘Order of the Phoenix’ onwards, but mysteries and puzzles still remain key components of Harry’s success.

Page 176 – Ah, so that’s it… Lupin and Tonks are having a kid, and Lupin’s doing a Rabbit Bergstrom on them. I wonder if it will be an ‘inside’ or an ‘outside’ baby?

Page 180 – Rita Skeeter is sullying Dumbledore’s name again, claiming that his family imprisoned his sister for being a ‘Squib’. Er, I don’t think so. But there’s obviously a few skeletons left in the good Professor’s closet.

Ooh, here’s Mundungus…

Page 182 – Mundungus just dropped the F-word. I swear that 18-plus sticker must have fallen off somewhere. And bad news, the toad-woman is back, and she’s got a Horcrux.

Page 186 – SNAPE CONFIRMED AS HOGWARTS HEADMASTER. Haha, suffer Snape, you missed out on Defence Against the Dark Arts again.

Page 195 – I can’t be certain, but I think our heroes are addicted to Polyjuice Potion. Blood, swearing, and drug references - Harry really is corrupting the world’s youth.

Page 206 – Eewww. The toad-woman has the late Moody’s mad-eye stuck on her office door. The Ministry of Magic is taking a distinctly more Orwellian turn with every page.

Page 227 – Harry’s got the Horcrux and has hung it around his neck. If he starts stroking it and calling it ‘my precious’ I think we’re in trouble.

Page 236 – Now they’re taking turns to wear the Horcrux as they journey along. Clever move. Frodo Baggins could’ve learnt a lot from these kids.

Page 254 – Well, something’s up with Ron. He’s dropped the F-bomb, implied that Harry is a egotist (young Ron’s always had a bit of an inferiority complex), reduced Hermione to tears, and stormed back home. I’d forgotten that Harry, Ron and Hermione are always good for a spat. Now it’s just Harry and Hermione in the tent. Time for some more of that ‘blissful oblivion’, ‘ey ‘arry?

Page 263 – Whoa-! Don’t look now, but Harry and Hermione are on the Polyjuice Potion again.

Page 268 – There’s one mystery solved, namely when Harry’s adventures take place. The gravestones of Harry’s parents say they died in 1981, which would mean that the series takes place during the mid to late 1990s. I bet you all knew that already, didn’t you?

(The news is showing all the Potter fans lining up to grab a copy of the book as soon as possible. Some people even camped outside bookstores overnight. What were they thinking? And why did I line up for almost an hour this morning? I could’ve gone in at 11 o’clock and walked right up to the counter. It’s lucky that no-one reads books anymore.)

Page 285 – Harry’s wand has been split in two. JK, you heartless destroyer!

Page 295 – Is Dumbledore the paragon of virtue that Harry thought he was? Hard to believe Rita’s claims that Dumbledore wanted to rule Muggles ‘for the greater good’. It’s also hard to believe that Dumbledore would leave this much to chance. I suspect that, as always, the fun will be in the explanation.


Page 303 – Ron’s back! Huzzah! (Er, why did he ever leave?)

Page 308 – Ben Cousins is back! Boooo!

It looks as if Ron may have finally conquered his fears about being a ‘second banana’. An aside: where does Ron rank in the ‘second banana’ hall of fame? I’d put him above Sam Gamgee (not as subservient), Doctor Watson (not as outclassed) and Robin (not as useless), but below Sancho Panza (not as wise), Agent 99 (not as pretty) and Waylon Smithers (not as amusing). A good comparison would be former Chicago Bull Scottie Pippen – always in the superstar’s shadow, but that superstar wouldn’t have been as great without him.

Page 328 – Merlin’s pants! So that’s what that triangular symbol is… the Deathly Hallows!

Page 348 – Three objects in the Hallows – an unbeatable wand, a resurrection stone, and an invisibility cloak - three heroes who are each looking to wield one of those objects. It would have been tempting to make this final chapter all about Harry versus Voldemort, but JK has really focused upon the Harry/Ron/Hermione triumvirate instead. Not that we should be too surprised I guess, after all, they’ve solved every other case as a team. However, I’m still thinking that, in the end, it will be up to Harry to win the day.

By the way, with all this finding of Horcruxes and collecting of Hallows, I feel like I’m in a role playing game.

Page 356 – Tonks’ father is dead. Did JK create such a large cast of characters just so she could decimate them later?

Page 360 – Oh, Harry, what have you done? You’ve said You-Know-Who’s name…

Page 373 – Harry and friends are in the hands of the enemy, who all seem spooked senseless about the Dark Lord themselves. Say what you want about Voldemort, but you can’t say he doesn’t know how to keep his troops in line.

Page 381 – In a rather gruesome scene, Wormtail has just strangled himself. JK, you brutal executioner!

Page 384 – Dobby the house-elf is back. I have a feeling that in her current mood JK will do away with him too.

Page 385 – Yep, she did. JK, you pitiless assassin! You know, in this case, it seems like JK brought Dobby back just so she could put a knife through his chest. Sure, he helped Harry escape the Malfoys, but another plot device could have easily done the trick. What happened to the author who turned time around to save Buckbeak?

Page 405 – Dumbledore had the unbeatable wand, and Voldemort has raided his tomb to get it. Sounds bad, but I reckon that if a corpse could smile, that of the former Head of Hogwarts would be doing so at the moment.

Page 416 – Lupin and Tonks now have a kid. They’d better be careful: everything small and lovable must go! (Where’s Crookshanks?)

Page 429 – It’s looking rather simple to break into Gringotts, the goblin bank. All you need is to be jacked up on Polyjuice and a few choice spells.

Page 435 – Finally we get to the scene depicted on the cover: Harry, Ron and Hermione being set upon by a rising tide of treasure. Another aside: which is the best Harry cover? (I’m only counting the covers to the kids’ versions here.) The cover to book three, with Harry riding the Hippogriff, is the one that comes most readily to mind, although like most of the covers, it’s still a little too cartoon-like for my tastes. (Yeah, yeah, I know, it’s a children’s book.) By that measure, the covers to books four and seven come out on top, with seven being my pick because it’s in trendy black and it has a bit more action in it. Hey, I just noticed the goblin hiding behind Harry’s shoulder. Extra points for that as well.

Page 445 – The final Horcrux is at Hogwarts. It’s all set for a Luke Skywalker/Darth Vader/Emperor Palpatine-type showdown. If Snape does turn out to be evil, I’m as big a fool as Obi-Wan Kedumbledore.

Page 451 – Our heroes’ mysterious benefactor has been revealed: it’s Aberforth Dumbledore. I’ll take this as the final sign that Albus is not returning.

Page 459 – Neville’s back! How did we get through three-quarters of the book without him? Lucky for him he’s shot up lately so he no longer falls into the ‘small and lovable’ category. Not that this will stop JK, I suspect…

Page 475 – And here’s McGonagall – the gang’s all here…

Page 482 – Snape’s just learned to never mess with McGonagall. But he’ll be back.

Page 489 – Welcome to ‘The Battle of Hogwarts’. On this side we have Harry, Ron, Hermione, the Weasleys, Hagrid, McGonagall, Lupin, Kingsley, and assorted Hogwarts teachers and students. On the other side, we have Lord Voldemort and uh… whoever he hasn’t killed yet. That angel of death, JK Rowling, is hovering overhead. Expect blood, mayhem, courage, valour and Harry to go all Frodo Baggins on us as Voldemort tries to infiltrate his mind. We’ve been waiting two and a half thousand pages for this. Bring it on…

(I’m sitting on the train headed to the football as I’m writing this, with Wolfmother blaring on my headphones, because a) it seems appropriate; and b) it prevents some smart-alec from telling me the ending. If they do, well, a 600-page hardcover to the nose won’t be pleasant, will it?)

Page 507 – Gee, Malfoy was always a wuss, but he’s become ever more fearful as the series has gone on. Crabbe is definitely the leader of the Slytherin trio now.

Page 510 – Crabbe has been killed. JK, you… er, screw it, it’s Crabbe.

Page 512 – Fred is dead! Not Fred! JK, you malicious slayer! And since another person has died, it must be the end of a chapter. You know, at the rate people are being knocked off, I’m starting to feel quite worried for Harry…

Page 520 – Hagrid has disappeared, but I’m going to refrain from calling JK any more names because I’m not certain that Hagrid is gone for good. Although being carried off by giant spiders while carrying a pink umbrella would be a funny way for Hagrid to go.

Page 522 – We’ve been getting a medley of Hogwarts landmarks in these past few chapters – the Room of Requirement, the Chamber of Secrets, the Shrieking Shack, the Whomping Willow… ah, the memories…

Page 525 – Fast running out of victims, JK has resurrected Harry’s parents just so she can kill them off again. OK, that one didn’t really happen.

Page 528 – Snape has just had his Anakin Skywalker moment, with Voldemort killing him off so that he can use the Elder Wand. Some may think this is Snape’s just deserts, but I think we’re about to find out otherwise.

Page 531 – Lupin and Tonks are dead. Yep, it’s a clean sweep of the friends of Harry’s dad. A pity, because I always thought Lupin and Sirius were two of the better Harry characters. JK is foaming at the mouth right about now.

Page 534 – We’re near the end, so it looks like it’s time for a classic Harry Potter ‘final explanation’. It’s hard to pick a favourite one of these; Quirrell in Philosopher’s Stone, Riddle in Chamber of Secrets, Lupin and Sirius in Azkaban… they’ve all been good.
In this case we’re looking back at the life and times of Severus Snape.

Page 548 – Hey hey, as I expected, Dumbledore’s death was part of a plan between him and Snape. Of course, I also thought Dumbledore wasn’t really dead, so I can’t pat myself on the back too hard.

Page 551 – What?! Harry has to – die?!

JK, you miserable, wretched, horrible, despicable, vile, shameful, dire, contemptible, appalling, loathsome, terrible, ghastly…

If this happens I’ll never read another Harry book again!

Page 556 – Colin Creevey is no more. ‘He was tiny in death’. Poor little guy never had a chance.

Page 561 – Here come the ghosts of victims past to help our hero along. I must confess that I thought the most moving moment in all of Harry Potter folklore was when Harry saw his parents in the Mirror of Erised. I thought it summed up both the advantages and the limits of Harry’s world quite nicely.

Page 564 – Hagrid’s alive, but who cares because now it’s Harry versus Voldermort!

Uh… Harry…

Page 566 – Whew! Harry’s not dead. And here comes his teacher to do his Obi Wan Kedumbledore routine.

Page 576 – The answers are simple: Dumbledore stuffed up. You know, now that I think about it, his plans really did suck, but that long white beard always fooled you into thinking he knew what he was doing. I think this is meant to be a part of Harry’s development though.

Page 584 – Harry, pretending to be dead, is carried back by Voldemort to the waiting throngs at Hogwarts. Anyone who skipped straight to the ending would be having a heart attack as they read this. Serves them right.

Page 589 – ‘NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU BITCH!’ shouts Mrs Weasley. Come on, you have to laugh at that. I hope they put it in the movie.

Page 592 – Now here we are – the final duel between Harry and Voldemort.

Page 594 – I think Harry has you outsmarted here, Voldemort.

Page 595 – ‘I am the true master of the Elder Wand,’ says Harry. Not long now…

Page 596 – Bang! Voldemort’s dead! The crowd erupts!

I’m sorry I ever doubted you, JK. But why should I be surprised? This is ‘The Boy Who Lived’.

Page 600 – Harry wins the day, scores one billion points for Gryffindor. He decides to relinquish the Elder Wand. ‘That wand’s more trouble than it’s worth,’ says Harry, ‘I’ve had enough trouble for a lifetime.’ Amen to that.

Page 607 – And we finish off with a scene set nineteen years later in which Harry and Ginny see their kids off to Hogwarts. It’s OK, but I would’ve found the ending on page 600 just as nice. I guess I’m not that sentimental.

And that’s it folks. I’ll finish off with some final reflections on the series. I guess I really think of it as two series – one pre-Goblet and one post-Goblet. The pre-Goblet stories were fairly simple, self-contained tales, each of them centered on the English school life and its eccentricities, with a bit of fantasy thrown into the mix. A mixture of C.S. Lewis and Roald Dahl would be a reasonable description for the early Harry books – just when you thought you had Harry’s world sussed out then the students would break out into the ludicrous Hogwarts theme song or something of the sort. The post-Goblet Harry books still had that sense of humour, but they were meant to be taken a bit more seriously as Harry matured and the threat of Voldemort grew. These later books, clocking in at twice the page count of the first three volumes, were more expansive, more impressive in their scope, but also more meandering, losing some of the tightness of the early plots. By the final two books, we’ve clearly veered into the territory of epic young adult fantasy. JK Rowling’s efforts to break out of the constraints of the 300-page children’s novel and grow with her audience are admirable, but in hindsight I think the series really did peak with ‘Chamber of Secrets’ and ‘Prisoner of Azkaban’.

One thing that is undeniable is that the Harry Potter series has made a lot of people very happy. Even today as I was reading my book outside the Melbourne Cricket Ground with my headphones on full blast people wanted to talk me about how the book was going. The success of Harry may be, as Nassim Nicholas Taleb called it, ‘a black swan’ (i.e. a rare, high-impact event that no-one would have predicted), but that success could never have been sustained without the books being enjoyable to both kids and adults alike. If I ever have kids, I’ll make sure that Mum has a set of Harry Potter books for them to read. And I won’t let them watch the movies until they do.

The Finger Points Outwards - No.2

Is this the greatest game ever? (Well, it might get old after the first ten minutes or so, but I'd take it over Deal or No Deal any day.)

Japanese Tetris

While I'm sure everyone will love the first site, this one may be a bit more of an acquired taste. It apparently started out as a tongue-in-cheek website, but then some people started using it seriously. I would be disqualified from joining due to my webbed toes and nose hair.

Darwin Dating

Ravenhair (Why Did You Smile?)

Ravenhair
Did I put you off your guard
When I went and closed my eyes?
Your sweet head dropped
And your early-train thoughts
Flew away, out the window

The Finger Points Outwards - No.1

In the wake of my 'seemingly-not-so-exhaustive-after-all' history on Marvel Comics' The Avengers, I was asked to contribute an article to the excellent website Avengers Forever. (I did publicize my Avengers history in the forum of this website... this blog isn't yet well-known enough for me to get random requests.) You can view the article here.

For those people who are Avengers fans, I recommend looking around the rest of the website for other Avengers-related goodies, including reviews, interviews, articles, wallpapers, and so on. (I concede that the odds of an Avengers fan finding the website through this blog rather than the reverse are tiny to say the least.) For those people who still think I'm talking about the Ralph Fiennes-Uma Thurman movie, this article may appeal to you more than the one I posted here - it's shorter and more personal - the type of article that you might expect would appear on my blog (go figure).

Anyway, since most of the articles I've written over the past year have been either comic book or football related maybe it's time I got a suggestion box. Anyone want a running diary of my upcoming trip to Adelaide? 'What Lurks In O'Connell Street' - it practically writes itself.