AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Finals 2021

The Brisbane Lions shot past everyone to reach the top. 

The Lions break through

In what shaped as a close AFLW finals series, most of the results went (sometimes barely) as the rankings predicted. That was until the Grand Final at Adelaide Oval, where the travelling Brisbane Lions finally won a Grand Final at their third attempt, beating the two-time premiership team and home team the Adelaide Crows. Many observers might have been at least mildly surprised given the Crows’ success and home ground advantage, but the top sides were very close this season, and each showed they were highly capable of beating the others throughout the year.  

Brisbane had less of the ball forward, but they had more of the ball

If you asked some people (and commentators) what the key to Brisbane’s Grand Final win was, they would likely say it was how well the Lions’ defence stood up against the Crows’ forward entries. Adelaide had 44 inside 50s – the sixth most ever recorded in an AFLW match – to just 24 for Brisbane. That differential is a little inflated by nearly every player camping in Adelaide’s forward half in the final quarter, but there is still little doubt Brisbane’s intercept marking in defence was important.

However, another part of this is that Brisbane had a lot more of the ball in uncontested situations compared with the Crows. The Lions recorded 130 uncontested possessions to Adelaide’s 92, and had 46 marks to the Crows’ 31. Seven of the top ten players for disposals in the Grand Final were Lions. The Lions’ disposal efficiency was pretty good at 61 per cent, compared with 54 per cent for the Crows.

Brisbane controlled the possession, even if they did not control the territory.

The premiership side and the most improved one

In the 2020 AFLW season the Lions were basically a mid-level side. They won three matches out of six with one draw, had a percentage of 107.0, had a ranking of -2.0, and were knocked out in the first week of the finals.

This all changed very quickly in 2021. The Lions jumped out of the gate, winning their first three matches – albeit against lowly-ranked sides – by a combined total of 137 points. Their season after that was then fairly emblematic of the AFLW season as a whole. First they played mostly higher-ranked sides, as the AFLW took advantage of the otherwise disadvantageous situation of determining the fixture a week ahead to schedule more competitive match-ups. Second they won three out of their five matches against those higher-ranked sides, all determined by margins of 15 points or less, showing how closely matched those top sides were. If Collingwood had kicked one more goal against the Lions in the preliminary final, Brisbane would have not been at Adelaide Oval at all.

That does not matter now though, and few AFLW fans would deny the worth of the Lions’ achievement of winning away against the competition’s powerhouse to date. After their previous heartbreak in Grand Finals, the Lions’ win was probably the most popular AFLW premiership of all.

AFL Rankings: Round 5 2021

 Note: Currently sitting at 109th (of 571,816) on ESPN footytips for AFL for 2021.

AFL Rankings: Round 4 2021

Blessed with a talented midfield over the past few seasons, Melbourne may finally have the defence to match it.

Melbourne has won its first four matches of this AFL season, among those comfortable victories against two of last year’s finalists Geelong and St. Kilda. It has been an impressive start for the Demons, and one that was somewhat unexpected after a horrible 2019 season and an inconsistent 2020 season. Indeed, so far this season Melbourne looks to be back in the form it displayed during the 2018 season, that saw it win two finals before losing in a preliminary final to premiers West Coast.

Throughout their ups and downs over the past few years one fairly consistent area of strength for the Demons has been their excellent midfield group. Ruckman and current captain Max Gawn has been not only one of the most dominant rucks in the league but also one of the most dominant of all AFL players. Meanwhile main midfielders Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, and Jack Viney (with support from Angus Brayshaw) are contested possession ‘beasts’ that have ensured the Demons do not often get beaten in the middle. Over the past five years Melbourne has had a positive inside 50 differential in each year – even in its disastrous 2019 season – highlighted by its monster 26 per cent differential in its 2018 finals season (see table below).

What has caused some Melbourne fans consternation however, and noted by some of the Demons’ detractors, is that they have often still lost games in which they have won the inside 50 battle. Melbourne has sometimes been relatively poor at scoring when it gets the ball in its attacking zone, and/or relatively poor at stopping the opposition from scoring when it gets into their attack. So far this season however, while the ‘offence’ is still not quite there, Melbourne has dramatically improved its defence (see table above), allowing the second fewest points and fewest points per opposition inside 50 in the league.

A main part of Melbourne’s improved ability to stop its opposition from scoring has been its ability to intercept the ball. Melbourne has also dramatically improved its intercept differential (see table below), with a differential that is reminiscent of the recent Richmond team at its peak. Brought over from Adelaide a few years back defender Jake Lever has finally delivered on his promise (and contract) in spades, averaging over 10 intercepts and two contested marks per game. This has been supported by the reliable intercept marking of another recent Demon recruit Steven May (now unfortunately injured), and Gawn continuing to provide a towering presence dropping back in defence.

Melbourne’s increased ability to win the ball through intercepts may prove important to it finishing in the upper part of the ladder. With their strong midfield the Demons have been pretty good at winning the clearances over the past few years (see table above). However, winning the intercept battle is usually the more important one – again demonstrated by the recent Richmond premiership sides that have often lost the clearances – as the majority of ‘possession chains’ are started through intercepts.

Can the Demons keep their wall up? If so, they will have another major weapon in their quest to finally break through for their first premiership in 57 years.

AFL Rankings: Round 3 2021

The Western Bulldogs have been ‘hogging’ the football so far this year.

The Western Bulldogs currently are on top of the AFL ladder, having won their first three matches, including a 128-point belting of North Melbourne on the weekend. As a result of that smashing they were the big mover on the rankings this week, now sitting just below Richmond and Geelong in third spot. They hold the top spot on the two headline ranking systems over at Matter of Stats, and are projected to finish on top based on the systems compiled at Squiggle.

The massive win against North certainly helped the Dogs’ rating, but they have been fairly impressive in their other two wins as well, comprehensively controlling the ball in those wins if not entirely the scoreboard. Against Collingwood in Round 1 they peppered the Magpies’ defence, with around 50 per cent more disposals and inside 50s than their opponents. The Eagles in Round 2 matched them better for territory, but the Dogs still had a lot more of the ball with almost 100 more handballs.

Overall the Bulldogs are averaging 435 disposals over their first three matches, which is about 10 per cent than any other team. Leading the way is their monster midfield. Jack Macrae, Josh Dunkley, Bailey Smith, Tom Liberatore, Marcus Bontempelli, and defender Caleb Daniel are all in the top 50 for disposals and averaging over 25 disposals per game, with five more Bulldogs in the top 100. Before the season with the recruitment of Adam Treloar some may have worried if there were ‘enough possessions to go around’, but the Dogs seem to have solved this by just getting their hands on the ball even more.

It is not just all uncontested possessions for the Dogs either, as they have by far the highest contested possession differential with their opponents (+28 per game, next best team +9), and highest clearance differential (+8 per game, next best +4). There was a question about which of their six main players that are preferred ‘inside midfielders’ would attend centre bounces and stoppages, however this choice was possibly easier than it seemed. Last year Bontempelli, Liberatore, and Macrae were the most successful of the main Dogs at winning centre clearances (though Treloar was about as successful at Collingwood), and they have been the three midfielders the Dogs have most often deployed at centre bounces this season. Liberatore has been a beast at clearances (see table below), leading the league. Meanwhile the ‘other inside midfielders’ – Dunkley and Smith – have won plenty of contested possessions around the ground, particularly Dunkley.

It is a scary prospect for the rest of the league if the Bulldogs have worked this out so quickly. There is still some question how Treloar will ultimately fit into this mix now that he has eased into the side, but it is not a bad problem to have. When this group of Bulldogs won their drought-breaking premiership in 2016 they were ‘pups’ who peaked at the right time; now at the peak of their powers they could end up as the undisputed top dogs.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 9 2021

The most intriguing AFLW season ever reaches its end.

Well it took some fixture-shuffling, but the 2021 AFLW season has made it to the finals series, and few would argue against the six best teams having made it through. This sets up a very intriguing three weeks of knock-out matches to determine a premier, and whoever gets through this gauntlet will possibly be the most admirable champion in the competition’s five years of existence.

First up this week Collingwood take on the Kangaroos again, in a reprise of last season’s thrilling final, while Melbourne has worked their way up to a home final against Fremantle. Based on the rankings the Magpies and Demons are expected to win, but it would be no great shock if the two teams that were favoured to play in last season’s Grand Final before it was cancelled got through.

The two winners of this week’s matches will then play Adelaide and Brisbane – with some uncertainty over the venue for that second final. Assuming they are played in those two teams’ home states the Crows and Lions are at this stage narrowly favoured to win through to the big one. From there, I’d favour the Crows. Again though, no result would greatly surprise, whoever gets through from this weekend to play them.

In summary then, the rankings are picking the Adelaide Crows to win their third premiership in five years. They would likely do it much tougher than 2019 though, and I would by no means be putting any substantial sum on it. That means however we could be in for the finest three weeks of AFLW we have seen to date.

AFL Rankings: Round 2 2021

AFL WOMEN'S Rankings: Round 8 2021

AFL Rankings: Round 1 2021

Despite their high finishes in each of the past two AFL seasons, the Brisbane Lions may not be among the leading premiership contenders.

The Brisbane Lions have been among the more popular picks to win the AFL premiership in 2021, or at least to finish in the top four. This is largely based on the Lions having finished second at the end of each of the past two previous home-and-away seasons and having made the preliminary final last season. These high finishes came after several years near the bottom of the ladder, contributing to the impression of a team on the rise and poised to take the next step.

That expectation hit a stumbling block on the weekend when Brisbane lost to the Sydney Swans – a team many would have considered not to even be a finals contender – at home by over 30 points. Their upcoming match is a trip to Geelong, one of last year’s Grand Finalists, seemingly placing the Lions in significant danger of being 0-2.

Over the pre-season, the AFL ‘analytical community’ has been less bullish on Brisbane’s flag chances compared with the media and the general public. The Lions’ points for and against last season were more commensurate with a team with 12 wins (out of 17 matches) than the 14 wins Brisbane finished with [Fox Sports]. They were ‘fortunate’ in close matches; going 3-0 in matches decided by one goal or less, and 5-0 in matches decided by two goals or less. With a few scoring shots in the other direction, their record could have looked somewhat different.

A second reason Brisbane may have been ‘fortunate’ is that they have had most of their first-choice team available over the past two seasons. For the past three seasons, the Lions have had 18 players in at least 80 per cent of their matches [ABC News], which is something no other team has had since 2012. If this comes down a bit this year, the Lions may find it harder to replicate last season’s form.

The third reason is that, due to the ‘hub’ situation in 2020, Brisbane had a relatively huge net home ground advantage last year. Exactly how big that advantage was depends how you classify their ‘away’ games against non-Queensland clubs ‘hubbing’ in Queensland, but the Lions only had two matches in their opponents’ home states. That is (hopefully, given a pandemic caused it) not happening again any time soon, which may also make it harder for Brisbane to match last season’s performance.  

Brisbane had a percentage of 124.9 last season, the lowest of the top four, although still comfortably above the next four teams, with percentages of 107 to 117. However after adjusting for estimated net home ground advantage – which includes that the Victorian clubs are estimated to have had a significant net disadvantage last season – their percentage is closer to that of the sides which finished fifth to ninth. This is the range they are in on the current rankings.

Of course the Lions could improve even more this season, counterbalancing some of the above effects. Further, one loss does not a season make and the Lions could very well rebound even this week – but the main point here is that it perhaps should not be as huge a surprise as many think if Brisbane does end up sliding back a bit this season.