AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 8 2022

Are Adelaide and Melbourne the top two?

In the next round of AFLW (assuming no COVID-related postponements) the six finalists from 2021 – and the likely six finalists for 2022 – will play off against each other. This follows this week’s matchups where four of those teams faced off, with Adelaide recording an impressive away win against Fremantle, and Melbourne controlling their match against the Kangaroos.

Those wins now put the Crows and Demons one win clear at the top of the ladder. Does that make them currently the two strongest sides? For the two-time champion Crows, I’d be prepared to say they likely are, while noting that the top five AFLW teams are only a win apart. For Melbourne, despite their important wins over the past couple of weeks, I am less sure… 

After eight rounds of the 2022 season, Adelaide has the highest points differential and ranks at or near the top in differentials for scoring shots, inside 50s, contested possessions, and possession chains (see table above). Their main rival in these categories though is not Melbourne, but their conquerors from last year’s Grand Final – the Brisbane Lions. The Lions were certainly helped in their ranking by kicking an AFLW record score (98 points to 24) against the Eagles on the weekend. That aside however they have regularly bested their opponents in most categories, and it has been Brisbane’s inaccuracy in front of goal which has led to some narrower wins, and their loss to Melbourne last week.

Melbourne meanwhile have been helped by their strong efficiency in converting inside 50 entries into points, with 1.5 points per inside 50 compared to 1.1 for the Crows and the Lions. They were well beaten for inside 50s by Adelaide, and also by Brisbane last week although they still managed to stage a memorable comeback and win. Maybe that high forward line efficiency holds up, but it may also be less sustainable to winning than the weight of inside 50 dominance that Adelaide and Brisbane have shown, or as I said last week they cannot rely on Tayla Harris taking seven contested marks each week. Still if they can finish in the top two on the actual ladder they will be in a good spot.

The main challenger to Adelaide and Brisbane may actually be Fremantle, or at least a Fremantle team at full strength. With reigning AFLW best and fairest Kiara Bowers missing for three straight matches the Dockers have dropped games against the Kangaroos and now Adelaide. Before that though they were similar to Adelaide in terms of their differentials in these main categories.

The Kangaroos? – Probably closer to the Demons and Dockers than the Crows and Lions, although they do have a much stronger inside 50 differential than Melbourne offset by the poorest scoring shot efficiency inside 50 of the top six. If they end up finishing in fifth – and they do face Brisbane away next week – they may face a tough road through the finals.

Collingwood? – Great effort to again make the finals, but little chance.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 7 2022

While the round officially ended with the Suns-Bulldogs match on Tuesday, I’m stretching it to include the Saints-Giants game, after which all teams have played the same amount of matches again. My poor spreadsheet has copped enough twisting and turning this season with all of the postponed matches, and the AFLW app itself is taking a somewhat loose approach as to which match belongs to which round.

Tayla! – she had Brisbane on its knees

One of the best matches of the season was Brisbane versus Melbourne, where the Demons came from over 20 points behind to win by three points.

Forward Tayla Harris took an AFLW record seven contested marks and kicked two goals to help lead the comeback. That now gives her almost double the number of contested marks (18) of the rest of the competition, and she is second for goals.

Specialist key forwards have arguably not been that ‘key’ in AFLW. Sarah Perkins and Sabrina Frederick were All-Australians during the competition’s first couple of years, but have struggled to find a prominent role since. Goalkickers that can also pound their way through the midfield or play higher up the ground like Erin Phillips, Katie Brennan, and Kate Hore have been more effective as the competition has progressed. Still Tayla Harris and Fremantle’s Gemma Houghton have managed to find a decent amount of success as specialist forward targets.

Harris’ performance on Monday encapsulates the value of a key forward fairly well. Melbourne can certainly not rely on her pulling down seven contested marks each week. But if she can do something close to that again in a big match, it could be the crucial difference.  

(Having said all that, with 13 more inside 50s Brisbane probably still should have won it…)

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 6 2022

Brisbane’s (relative) inaccuracy almost costs them again

A major upset was avoided on the weekend when the reigning AFLW premiers the Brisbane Lions just snuck home against St. Kilda by five points. The Lions dominated time in their forward half, with 42 inside 50s to 22 by the Saints, and 16 scoring shots to six. It was the second time this year that Brisbane almost cost itself a win through inaccuracy when kicking for goal, after squeaking home by two points against the Cats despite massive forward half dominance.

As a whole Brisbane has been relatively inaccurate in front of goal this season, ranking second last for points per scoring shot (see chart below). That said, as a whole the AFLW competition has been pretty inaccurate in front of goal this season. Only three teams (Richmond, Gold Coast and GWS) have 3.5 points or more per scoring shot this season – i.e. kicked at least as many goals as behinds.

With a bit more accuracy in front of goal the rankings would have Brisbane around the same mark as the Kangaroos, Adelaide, and Melbourne – which given their scoring shot, inside 50 and possession differentials so far in 2022 – is possibly a more accurate indication of where they are currently at.

The Dogs’ accuracy breaks the top six stranglehold

On the other hand, a major upset was caused on the weekend when the Western Bulldogs defeated reigning grand finalists and 2022 ladder leaders the Adelaide Crows by a point. In this case it was the Dogs’ accuracy that helped get them home – they had 10 less inside 50s and four less scoring shots, but kicked eight goals from those nine shots.

It was the first time that one of the six 2021 finalists (also the top six teams on the rankings) had been beaten by a team outside of that group since the 2020 finals. Even then it took some remarkable accuracy in front of goal to break that stranglehold.

Still the Dogs seemed to have stepped forward as the most likely team – other than perhaps the Suns – to challenge that group, with a one goal loss to the Dockers a couple of weeks back, and a match against GWS where inaccuracy arguably cost them the win. Of the top six only Collingwood really looks vulnerable, but there might at least be a bit of a fight for that last finals spot.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 5 2022

Did Freo miss Turbo?

Last week on this blog I said it would be interesting to see how Fremantle went without reigning AFLW best and fairest Kiara Bowers. Given their 10-point loss to the Kangaroos on Sunday the answer would seem to be: not as good.

Despite being behind on the scoreboard, the Dockers did still have plenty of scoring opportunities, winning the inside 50 count (see table above). It wasn’t the massive advantage though that it had been in previous weeks, with Bowers the league leader in inside 50s so far in season 2022. The Dockers also lost the contested possession count and drew level on clearances, both of which are also categories Bowers leads in terms of averages.

Part of the turnaround also likely came from playing a relatively tough opponent in unfamiliar territory, as the changes compared with overall season performance were higher than Bowers’ production of five inside 50s, 15 contested possessions and six clearances per game. Still Bowers’ absence very likely hurt significantly.

One area where the Dockers maintained their average differential was tackles, with rookie Jessica Low stepping up into the midfield and laying nine tackles. However, given that Low primarily did that in a tagging role that exchange of midfielders might have kept up the Dockers’ pressure prowess, but at the expense of the offensive firepower Bowers also provides. (It’s also a tough ask for a first year player to replace the league’s best player!)

But Adelaide keep powering on

There were no such major problems with missing personnel for new league leader Adelaide, who dominated Carlton with a 39-point win.

The Crows are giving up a mere 15 points per game, over a goal less than any other team. Given they rank fourth for inside 50s against that is some stingy defence.

Midfielders Anne Hatchard and Ebony Marinoff remain the stars however, with both ranking in the top five for average kicks behind only Bowers and the Kangaroos’ Ashleigh Riddell. They also both rank in the top ten, along with Adelaide’s other superstar Erin Phillips, for average score involvements.

Both have been able to rack up a lot of their possessions outside of contests. Marinoff’s contested possession to disposal ratio sits at 40 per cent and Hatchard is at 48 per cent (see table below). In comparison Riddell is also under 50 per cent, but other high disposal-getters Bowers, Richmond’s Monique Conti, and West Coast’s Emma Swanson are pushing 60 per cent or above.

In the men’s game such numbers might indicate a bit of teammates kicking laterally around the field. In AFLW however the ability of Adelaide’s ball winners to get a lot of kicks in non-congested/non-pressure situations is probably an important factor in the Crows’ success this season.

In closing, some tips, before the fixture changes again…

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 4 2022

Fremantle emerges as the clear top side… sort of

In keeping with the unusual nature of this AFLW season, the Fremantle Dockers played two games in the past week – the first against fellow 2021 finalist Collingwood on the Thursday night and then a second, re-scheduled match against the Western Bulldogs on the Tuesday. This gave us a rare opportunity to see our usual week-to-week revising of expectations within the same week.

After the first match Fremantle looked like a powerhouse. They smashed the previously undefeated Magpies, holding them to just seven points to run out winners by five goals, with an incredible 41 to 10 inside 50s. They were massive in the contests around the ground, with 23 more contested possessions despite only having one more clearance, and 28 more tackles. If the round had ended there the Dockers would be a clear goal ahead on the rankings.

Tuesday’s game against the Bulldogs, while by no means a cause for major concern, did even things out a bit and slightly dropped their ranking points. The Dockers won by just a goal, although they still dominated field position with 37 to 22 inside 50s, and they had 30 more tackles.

As has been the case for the past few years, Fremantle tend not to dominate possession but get huge bang for their buck in gaining territory when they do get the ball, and they are defensive beasts. This season their midfield combination of Kiara Bowers, Hayley Miller, and Gabby O’Sullivan is arguably the competition’s best, with all of them currently in the top 20 for average contested possessions, tackles, and metres gained (see table below).

Bowers however has just received a two-match suspension, so it will be interesting to see if that breaks their form, or if they pick up right where they left off when she returns.

Other lopsided forward half counts

Fremantle’s matches were not alone in having lopsided inside 50 counts, with all of the other round’s games having an inside 50 differential of ten or more, with varying results (see table below).

Fremantle in its first match and the Kangaroos capitalised on their territorial advantage with big wins. However inaccuracy in front of goal brought down the winning margins for Adelaide, Brisbane, and Gold Coast, although they all at least got home. Not so the Western Bulldogs, who were cost their first win of the season against GWS, by kicking only 2.11 to 7.1 for the Giants.

These inside 50 differentials are arguably a better reflection of where teams sit relative to each other after this weekend than the actual scores. For example, while Geelong did very well to get within two points of last year’s premier Brisbane, the differentials of seven scoring shots and 26 inside 50s are probably more reflective of the actual gap between the teams.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 3 2022

The Joy of Six

… And it took only one more week for the AFLW fixture to be thrown into more semi-chaos by COVID, meaning that the scheduled Brisbane v Gold Coast cross-state match I highlighted last week did not eventuate…

Instead, the Lions played host to Carlton on a Tuesday night and won easily by about six goals. This catapulted them up off the bottom of the ladder and into the top six, and possibly set this year’s finalists for good – i.e. they’re looking like the same six teams that made the finals last year. With the caveat that the Western Bulldogs have still only played one match so far, the top six are already looking a clear step ahead of the rest on most of the major statistics (see table below).

Fremantle and Melbourne in particular are both looking very strong in several areas. Both have average differentials with their opponents so far of around 30 points, eight scoring shots, ten contested possessions, and over nine inside 50s per game. Adelaide – while on top of the ladder – has generally not been quite as strong in these areas, and holds top spot largely through keeping scoring low. They have however played tougher opponents.

Collingwood – not yet defeated but not yet convincing?

You could argue perhaps Collingwood are a step further back again, as they have only broken about even in the inside 50 battle. Their defence has been more of a reason for their healthy percentage, ranking second behind the Crows for opposition points per inside 50.

However, they still have the highest uncontested possession differential to date, suggesting that they have still had the majority of ball control in their matches, even if not control of the territory. We should get a better read on where the Magpies are at when they (hopefully) host the Dockers tomorrow night.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 2 2022

And it took only two rounds for the AFLW fixture to be thrown into semi-chaos by COVID … with one match (Brisbane v Bulldogs) being postponed, and other matches moved.

That aside, we probably didn’t learn a whole lot more from the results this weekend – or at least we mainly learned that the hierarchy of teams from last season looks like being similar to the hierarchy of teams this season. Melbourne accounted for last week’s big winners Richmond as predicted, although aside from the second quarter the Tigers did actually stick fairly well with the Demons. Last year’s top teams Fremantle, Adelaide, and Collingwood all won as well by reasonably comfortable margins.

Row, Row, Row

Perhaps the biggest development came at the other end of the ‘rankings’, with Gold Coast beating West Coast, and indicating they may be a little stronger than the Eagles, or at least closed the gap. It was the Suns’ first win in 672 days, so their ceiling does still looks to be ‘not last’.

Credit where it’s due however with Gold Coast recording 11 scoring shots and 30 inside 50s, well above their averages of six scoring shots and 22 inside 50s last season. The number one draft pick Charlie Rowbottom played like an established star with 17 disposals (3^rd most in match) and 12 tackles (equal first for the weekend).

It sets up a slightly intriguing (scheduled) clash against cross-state rivals Brisbane, with the reigning premiers coming off a postponed match and still sitting at the bottom of the ladder – the Suns will celebrate even more if they could make them stay there.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 1 2022

The first round of the 2022 AFLW season passed with little surprise regarding who won – perfect tipping so far, woo-hoo! – although there were a couple of unexpected things within those results.

Lowly ranked Geelong came with eight points of 2021 finalist the Kangaroos, while last year’s premier Brisbane could manage only four scoring shots and currently sit on the bottom of the ladder, albeit against last year’s runner-up the Adelaide Crows. The rankings still have the Lions on top (just), however long-term injuries to defender Kate Lutkins (last year’s best afield in the Grand Final) and forward Dakota Davidson may hurt their fortunes somewhat.

Tigers burning bright?

One of the biggest improvers in terms of the rankings, and probably in the minds of many watchers, was Richmond who opened the season with a 38-point win against St. Kilda.

A note of caution though is that the Tigers were very accurate in front of goal, kicking 10 goals and just one behind, which they may find it hard to sustain. They had only five more inside 50s compared with the Saints, and committed more turnovers, although Monique Conti helped them to easily win the clearance battle.

Last season though the Tigers’ opponents were highly accurate in that they had the most points per scoring shot, so perhaps this is things evening out a bit and showing that the Tigers are around somewhere in the middle.

Getting time and space

Once again this round’s results showed the high value in the AFLW of being able to win uncontested possessions. All the round’s winners went over 100 uncontested possessions, while all the round’s losers bar Brisbane went under that mark. In contrast the spread of contested possessions among winners and losers was more even.

Really, a team’s ideal in Australian football would be to keep possession of the ball and advance it towards goal without running into pressure. My observation would that be in the men’s competition teams use a higher number of uncontested possessions to do this, more often maintaining long chains in which they move the ball laterally or backwards, and racking up more possessions per turnover. While this is done with the ultimate purpose of finding a way out of stoppages or a gap in the opposition defence, this could make the value of any single uncontested possession lower in the men’s game, and which is why winning the contested ball count is more often important.

In the women’s competition at its current juncture though, small differences in winning contested ball may matter less, and it may be more about having the skill and the game plan to be able to maintain possession once you have it.

One could certainly see this, for example, in how Melbourne was able to dominate possession against the Bulldogs on Saturday night, with players like Libby Birch, Tyla Hanks and Lily Mithen able to gather – and in Birch’s case intercept – a lot of possessions with no nearby opponent. Indeed the Demons looked about as impressive as advertised, and while they don’t quite yet sit atop these rankings, I have little argument against the betting market currently having them as (slight) premiership favourites.