What Has Happened To Collingwood?

So far in the 2012 AFL season Collingwood has not been the dominant team they were in 2010 or 2011. In 2011 they beat every team except the eventual premier Geelong, usually quite easily. In 2012 so far they have lost to Hawthorn and Carlton, and haven’t beaten any of their other opponents – all of which finished no higher than 8^th last season – by more than four goals.

But what is the reason for this drop off in form? Have a few players gone off the boil or is there a general malaise? Let’s compare the average Champion Data (SuperCoach) player ratings for Collingwood’s main 22 players in 2011 and 2012.

	Supercoach Average
	2011	2012	Diff.
Luke Ball	99.21	62.67	-36.54
Chris Tarrant	52.30	17.00	-35.30
Ben Johnson	79.44	49.33	-30.11
Dale Thomas	109.67	86.33	-23.34
Ben Reid	77.88	59.75	-18.13
Chris Dawes	76.28	61.00	-15.28
Travis Cloke	97.32	93.67	-3.65
Heath Shaw	99.59	96.25	-3.34
Dane Swan	120.62	119.00	-1.62
Scott Pendlebury	129.76	129.17	-0.59
Sharrod Wellingham	74.90	74.50	-0.40
Harry O'Brien	74.96	76.00	1.04
Alan Toovey	61.25	62.83	1.58
Dayne Beams	93.50	95.40	1.90
Darren Jolly	81.62	87.80	6.18
Jarryd Blair	73.96	81.20	7.24
Nick Maxwell	61.58	70.00	8.42
Steele Sidebottom	84.32	105.00	20.68
Leon Davis	101.57
Andrew Krakouer	76.00
Leigh Brown	67.17
Alan Didak	57.25
Martin Clarke		81.00
Alex Fasolo		67.50
Tyson Goldsack		60.83
Lachlan Keeffe		57.67
Ben Sinclair		56.17
Changed players	354.29	323.17	-31.12
Total	1850.15	1750.07	-121.26

The table has been divided up into several groups. At the top of the table we see there are 6 players who have had a large drop-off in form in 2012: Luke Ball, Chris Tarrant, Ben Johnson, Dale Thomas, Ben Reid and Chris Dawes. However, with the exception of Dawes, all of those players have been hampered by injury in 2012. Therefore it looks like injuries really are a significant reason for the Pies’ drop-off in form. Many of the other core Collingwood players – Cloke, Shaw, Swan, Pendlebury, Wellingham, O’Brien, Toovey and Beams – are pretty much the same players they were in 2011. A few players have marginally improved, including Jolly, Blair and Maxwell, though both Jolly and Maxwell missed significant portions of 2011 with injury. And one player – Steele Sidebottom – has significantly improved, though given that both he and Blair are young it shouldn’t be too surprising that they have improved from last year.

Further down the list we see the core players from 2011 that Collingwood are missing in 2012, including Davis, Krakouer, Brown, and Didak. Given that Tarrant has only played one game so far he could also be included in this group. Replacing them in Collingwood’s main 22 have been Clarke, Fasolo, Goldsack, Keeffe and Sinclair. These five players have so far averaged 31 less ranking points (about 2 per cent of the team’s productivity in 2011) than the players they replaced. The main loss here has been Leon Davis, with Marty Clarke being a capable but not as productive replacement. Overall though the main 22 is producing 121 less ranking points per game than 2011, a 7 per cent drop in productivity. Pretty much all of this can be attributed to Ball, Johnson, Thomas, Reid and Dawes, with Davis’ loss offsetting Sidebottom’s improvement.

So in summary then it looks like injuries and the loss of Leon Davis has led to Collingwood’s fall so far in 2012. (Though the Pies did drop off towards the end of 2011 as well.) The good news for Collingwood supporters then is that the team may well improve again as these players become healthy again, though Ball is out for the season and Davis is not returning. In other words, it may not be new coach Nathan Buckley’s fault after all.