AFL Power Rankings: Round 4 2017

There are likely many factors that have contributed to Hawthorn’s huge decline this season, but one factor that captured a lot of attention was their somewhat questionable moves over the off-season. The Hawks traded away their two highest disposal winners, four-time premiership heroes Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis, and threw a lot of money and draft picks at bringing in three players from other clubs: Jaeger O’Meara (Gold Coast), Tom Mitchell (Sydney), and Tyrone Vickery (Richmond). The early returns haven’t been good, both for the new recruits – or for O’Meara and Vickery at least – and for the team as a whole.

Hurling People Now did a great analysis of each of Hawthorn’s moves. They said that the trade for Tom Mitchell was a good one, and in his four matches so far Mitchell has done relatively well. They also said that the Hawks got fair value for Sam Mitchell, who likely only has a year or two of football left.

By their assessment however the Hawks lost out badly by trading Jordan Lewis – who should have a good few years left – for virtually nothing. That is nothing though compared to what they gave up for O’Meara; as HPN pointed out Hawthorn gave up more than an entire draft of picks to eventually land their man. The Hawks had a low expected stock of future games within their list anyway, and these trades dropped them even lower in this regard. If the first round pick they gave to St. Kilda turns out to be a high draft pick, which currently looks very likely, Hawthorn’s 2016 off-season could be seen as a disaster.

The Beitzel Review has a more optimistic view. This article points out that the Hawks haven’t built their list on high draft picks anyway, and instead enhanced it by bringing in several proven players in exchange for late first round picks, which used to be generally overvalued. It also points out that Hawthorn can strengthen its list in the coming years through free agency. All true – but based on what we have seen so far the Hawks look like they are starting from much further back than they, or anyone else, could ever have expected.