AFL WOMEN’S Power Rankings: Round 6 2018

 

Last week I outlined the conditions needed to set up a ‘very exciting final round’ for this year’s AFLW season – namely the Demons, Giants, and Crows all winning on the weekend – and they all came to pass … As a result, heading into the final round we have five teams that have a chance of finishing in the top two positons and therefore playing off in the Grand Final, and it will come down to the very last match to decide who goes through.

Those five teams are:

• Western Bulldogs and Melbourne – with 4 wins each (16 points)
• GWS and Adelaide – 3 wins and a draw each (14 points)
• Brisbane – 3 wins (12 points).

This weekend GWS plays Brisbane in Sydney on the Friday night, the Bulldogs play Melbourne on the Saturday night, and – in the last match of the regular season – Adelaide travels to Melbourne to play Collingwood on the Sunday.

• For the Bulldogs and Melbourne whoever wins will finish on top, and gets to host the Grand Final. If they draw the Dogs will finish top, unless the Giants or Crows overhaul them on percentage.

• The loser of the match will be in a very precarious position. They can still make the Grand Final, but will rely on the Giants and Crows both not winning, and the Lions not overtaking them on percentage. The Dogs have a healthy advantage in terms of percentage over the Lions, but the Demons will be running things fine if they have to rely on this scenario.

• For GWS and Adelaide their fates are closely linked to each other, due to the draw they played in earlier in the season. Assuming the Dogs and Demons do not draw then if either team wins and the other loses then the winner will finish second, and is through to the Grand Final. If they both win then it comes down to percentage, with the Giants having an advantage of about 20 points over the Crows. If they lose then they are out, as Brisbane overtakes them

• Brisbane has the unlikeliest path to the Grand Final. Apart from needing to win themselves in Sydney the Lions definitely need Adelaide to not beat Collingwood. As the Dogs and Demons play each other the Lions would then – a draw aside – catch up to one of them in terms of wins. But they would prefer Melbourne to lose because, as mentioned above, the Dogs have a much bigger advantage in terms of percentage.

 

Missing from this equation is the second-ranked team Collingwood. The Magpies have had an excellent past three weeks, comfortably beating Melbourne, and Brisbane away, and losing narrowly to the Bulldogs. Forwards Moana Hope and Christina Bernardi have been on fire, kicking five goals each over the past few weeks. But they have left their run too late after a poor start to the season, and are one of the few teams that will already – albeit with some optimism – have to start looking forward to next year.