AFL Power Rankings: Round 4 2018

After four rounds of the 2018 season there is no undefeated side in the AFL, and so far no dominant one.

For the first time since 1997 no AFL team is undefeated after four rounds, which suggests that no side is ‘running away’ with the competition. The rankings suggest this too, with the highest-ranked sides Richmond and Sydney having about four goals worth of ranking points, generally the mark of a really good but not great side. (A big yeah! though from this Tiger supporter for Richmond reaching the top of the rankings – the first time they have done so since I started them in 2010, and a long way from where they were when they started.)

Looking back over the rankings since 2010 the ‘great’ sides have tended to get 33 or more ranking points by the season’s end. (See table below – I’ve adjusted the historical ranking points so the sum across teams for each season adds to zero, consistent with my current method.)

That cut-off is a little arbitrary, but it includes the teams that many AFL followers would consider as the truly ‘great’ sides over that period: the big Collingwood-Geelong rivalry of 2010 and 2011, the Hawthorn dynasty of 2012 to 2015, and the Sydney Swans Grand Final sides of 2012, 2014, and 2016 (even though the 2010 Geelong and 2016 Sydney sides were ‘upset’ along the way).

The next tier of sides, with 25 ranking points of more, includes some Grand Finalists and even a premier. But it also includes some pretty good seasons that didn’t get close to a flag, such as Carlton in 2011, West Coast in 2012, and Adelaide in 2016. This is about the level that the top sides sit today (and last year too), making the premiership race more open than usual.

Even if we just look at 2018 form adjusted to a full season’s worth of ranking points no side emerges as dominant, which is reflected in the evenness of the ladder. Hawthorn is the closest with about 32 ranking points, but 60 per cent of their 2018 ranking points come from their win over Melbourne this weekend, and the Hawks were hardly dominant against Geelong and Richmond (indeed, the Tigers beat the Hawks reasonably comfortably).

A dominant team could always emerge, and just hasn’t got going yet – remember that the 2014 Swans, minor premiers for that season, lost to bottom-ranked GWS in its first match. But if they don’t then we could be in for a season of ever-changing flag favourites.