The
AFL this year actually has a clear set of ‘bottom six’ teams. However, some of
those teams are still much worse than the others.
With eighteen teams in the AFL,
it’s somewhat natural for the league to think of the ladder as consisting of
‘three groups of six’.
This is what the AFL does in
terms of determining
its fixture each year. Teams in the ‘top six’ – based on last
season’s finishing positions – will in theory have harder fixtures than those
in the ‘middle six’ or ‘bottom six’ (though
this doesn’t always work).
Potentially more significantly
and controversially, under
the AFL’s proposed ‘17-5’ fixture teams would be divided into
‘three groups of six’ after playing each other once in the first 17 rounds. The
‘top six’ teams would play for the top four spots in the final five rounds, the
‘middle six’ teams would play off for finals spots, and the ‘bottom six’ teams
would play to determine who gets the highest draft picks.
Usually teams don’t fit neatly
into groups of six in terms of ability. For example, last season Collingwood
finished in the ‘bottom six’ in thirteenth position, and received
a relatively easy fixture as a result. However, based on the Power
Rankings Collingwood
was an ‘average’ side that was about as good as the sixth-placed side, the West
Coast Eagles. The Magpies and Eagles are among a bunch of
‘average’ sides that have taken the step up to being ‘good’ this season, but if
you only consider ladder position the Pies’ rise seems more dramatic.
The
‘Dismal’ Six
This year though there has
been a clear ‘bottom six’ sides – Fremantle, the Western Bulldogs, St. Kilda,
Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Carlton. These six teams are all at least three wins
behind every other team in 2018, with three rounds left. They are also clearly
the six bottom-ranked sides, and
have been since way back in Round 4.
The Lions have been OK
recently
Nevertheless that does not
mean these six teams are all about as equally ‘bad’. In particular the
Brisbane Lions have been pretty good over the past few weeks (see
first chart below). Indeed, despite currently sitting in sixteenth on the AFL
ladder, the Rankings think the Lions are closer in ability to second-placed
West Coast than seventeenth-placed Gold Coast! (See second chart below.)
The Lions are zero wins and
five losses in matches decided by less than ten points so far this season. With
at least a couple of wins in those close matches their ladder position would
probably be a ‘fairer’ indication of their ability. On the bright side, with
higher draft picks currently going to lower teams, they may end up with a higher
draft pick than a team of their ability would usually get.
Gold Coast and Carlton are in
depths of their own
Three of the remaining ‘bottom
six’ sides – Fremantle, the Western Bulldogs, and St. Kilda – have been pretty
‘bad’, but not historically so. They have generally hovered around being three
or four goals per game below average (see first chart above). They’re closer to
Gold Coast than West Coast, but not by a huge amount.
Freo and the Bulldogs both
have a
couple of ‘stars’ holding them up – Nat Fyfe (until his injury)
and Lachie Neale at the Dockers, and Marcus Bontempelli and Jack Macrae at the
Doggies. The Saints have Jack Steven, and also a ‘rising
star’ in young forward Jade Gresham. It’s not a great near-term outlook for
any of them, but it’s not awful either.
Gold Coast and Carlton though
are way below everyone else, as shown by them both losing by around 100 points
on the weekend. They have generally been around six to seven goals per game
worse than an average side (see first chart). Between them they have had 11
losses this year in excess of ten goals.
Carlton though at least has
a
genuine ‘star’ in Patrick Cripps, and a
‘rising star’ in Charlie Curnow. Gold Coast is going to
lose one ‘star’
and co-captain this season in Tom Lynch (though they should
receive good compensation), may
lose the other in Steven May, and really do not appear to have much else in the
way of ‘stars’ or ‘future stars’ in the near-term. Though the Suns are currently
separated only by percentage from fellow Queensland side the Brisbane Lions,
the gap between them may really be much, much larger.
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