When the 2019 AFL fixture was
released Champion Data tweeted this table, ranking each team’s fixture from
hardest to easiest.
Champion Data rated
Collingwood as having among the hardest fixtures, and St. Kilda as having among
the easiest. So did Rohan
Connolly. So did HPN Footy.
So did FMI.
Spoiler alert: I’m going to as well.
Note the shadings in the table above though. Those shadings indicate how Champion Data ranked the strength of each team – e.g. the ‘strongest’ teams are West Coast, Richmond, Melbourne, and Geelong. Champion Data copped some criticism in the comments under their tweet about those rankings. Oh boy, did some people get annoyed about that.
Note the shadings in the table above though. Those shadings indicate how Champion Data ranked the strength of each team – e.g. the ‘strongest’ teams are West Coast, Richmond, Melbourne, and Geelong. Champion Data copped some criticism in the comments under their tweet about those rankings. Oh boy, did some people get annoyed about that.
In particular, there was
criticism that Geelong – who finished eighth in 2018 – was ranked in the top
group, while runners-up Collingwood were not. Some people were incredulous that
a team that was in the last finals spot and then eliminated in the first week
could be ranked above another team that made the Grand Final. Yes, it may sound
a little strange, but on this one my
rankings agree with Champion Data.
Few would dispute that Collingwood had a better finals series than Geelong last year. Over the season as a whole though I’d say that Geelong was better, or at least they were similar. In the home and away season Geelong scored about as many points as Collingwood, and conceded about 150 points less. The Cats won two less matches, but had a much tougher fixture than the Magpies. Collingwood played lower teams Brisbane, Carlton, and Fremantle twice, while Geelong’s only ‘easy double-up’ was Gold Coast. Switch those fixtures around, and the Cats probably finish higher going into the finals.
One point of all this is that, while I don’t know exactly how Champion Data come up with fixture assessment, I expect it is very similar to how I do it. My ‘groupings’ would also be similar, with the exception that I would have Essendon rather than North Melbourne ranked in the top eight after its strong finish to 2018.
The other point is that, while the fixture won’t in itself make you a ‘good’ team, it can sometimes make a fair difference to where you finish on the ladder.
Rating each team’s fixture in 2019
My method for rating the fixtures is to add up the ranking points of all the team’s opponents over the season, while adjusting for home ground advantage. This means that the fixture rating is determined by:
Few would dispute that Collingwood had a better finals series than Geelong last year. Over the season as a whole though I’d say that Geelong was better, or at least they were similar. In the home and away season Geelong scored about as many points as Collingwood, and conceded about 150 points less. The Cats won two less matches, but had a much tougher fixture than the Magpies. Collingwood played lower teams Brisbane, Carlton, and Fremantle twice, while Geelong’s only ‘easy double-up’ was Gold Coast. Switch those fixtures around, and the Cats probably finish higher going into the finals.
One point of all this is that, while I don’t know exactly how Champion Data come up with fixture assessment, I expect it is very similar to how I do it. My ‘groupings’ would also be similar, with the exception that I would have Essendon rather than North Melbourne ranked in the top eight after its strong finish to 2018.
The other point is that, while the fixture won’t in itself make you a ‘good’ team, it can sometimes make a fair difference to where you finish on the ladder.
Rating each team’s fixture in 2019
My method for rating the fixtures is to add up the ranking points of all the team’s opponents over the season, while adjusting for home ground advantage. This means that the fixture rating is determined by:
- which five teams the team plays twice, as well as that a team plays every team at least once except itself; and
- net home ground advantage over the season.
As Champion Data’s table
implies, it is the ‘double-ups’ that matter the most. I rate St. Kilda as
having the easiest fixture this year, as it plays Carlton, Fremantle, and Gold
Coast twice. On the other hand, I rate Collingwood as having the hardest ‘double-ups’,
as it plays Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast (and Essendon) twice.
Of course, it is likely that some
teams will perform very differently in 2019 to 2018. In 2018 teams that played Adelaide
and St. Kilda twice had easier fixtures than I initially expected, while
teams that played Melbourne and North Melbourne twice had tougher fixtures.
St. Kilda’s ‘80-point’ advantage in the fixture compared with an average team isn’t by itself going to make up their -500 point differential from last year. If the Saints significantly improve though it may well help them with a finals push. It probably helped Richmond to a better finals spot when they improved in 2017, and as mentioned above it probably helped Collingwood last year.
St. Kilda finally wins out in the fixture
I’m in no way a Saints fan, but they were definitely overdue for some ‘love’ from the fixture. They had one of the worst fixtures last year, and the year before that, and in 2015 and 2014 as well.
St. Kilda’s tough luck in the fixture in recent years was well covered in Squiggle’s article ‘How The Fixture Screwed St. Kilda’. In recent years the Saints have had tougher ‘double-ups’ than a team that finished in their position typically would. Also while net home ground advantage is usually fairly minor, it has mattered more in St. Kilda’s case. The Saints have tended to get less home matches against non-Victorian opponents compared with the amount of times they have had to travel across the border.
Again, the fixture by itself didn’t make St. Kilda miss the finals last year, and it likely won’t get them in the finals this year if they don’t otherwise improve. It’s good for them though, after recent years, to have a fixture that is a bit kinder to their chances.
St. Kilda’s ‘80-point’ advantage in the fixture compared with an average team isn’t by itself going to make up their -500 point differential from last year. If the Saints significantly improve though it may well help them with a finals push. It probably helped Richmond to a better finals spot when they improved in 2017, and as mentioned above it probably helped Collingwood last year.
St. Kilda finally wins out in the fixture
I’m in no way a Saints fan, but they were definitely overdue for some ‘love’ from the fixture. They had one of the worst fixtures last year, and the year before that, and in 2015 and 2014 as well.
St. Kilda’s tough luck in the fixture in recent years was well covered in Squiggle’s article ‘How The Fixture Screwed St. Kilda’. In recent years the Saints have had tougher ‘double-ups’ than a team that finished in their position typically would. Also while net home ground advantage is usually fairly minor, it has mattered more in St. Kilda’s case. The Saints have tended to get less home matches against non-Victorian opponents compared with the amount of times they have had to travel across the border.
Again, the fixture by itself didn’t make St. Kilda miss the finals last year, and it likely won’t get them in the finals this year if they don’t otherwise improve. It’s good for them though, after recent years, to have a fixture that is a bit kinder to their chances.
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