AFL Power Rankings: Round 4 2019

Greater Western Sydney may have had their best side a few years ago, but they are still looking good enough to be in premiership contention.

2016: peak-GWS

The 2016 AFL season saw the emergence of the Greater Western Sydney Giants (I’m not capitalising Giants) as a top eight side, and was probably their best team and season to date.

The Giants won 16 out of 22 home and away matches, with a percentage of 143.1, and crushed first-placed Sydney in the first week of the finals. They finished with about five goals worth of ranking points, which historically is really good. The Giants were strong all over the ground. They were the second-highest scoring team, and had the fourth-least points against per game. They also averaged the most inside 50s and clearances per game.

The Giants have probably never again been as deep as they were that year either (see table below). GWS came into the league on a wave of generous draft concessions and recruitment rules to better enable them to compete. That 2016 side had their initial young, big name recruits Callan Ward, Phil Davis, and Tom Scully, then entering the prime of their careers. They had high draft picks Stephen Coniglio, Dylan Shiel, Toby Greene, Nick Haynes, Adam Tomlinson, and Jonathon Patton. They had young All-Australian Jeremy Cameron. They had emerging players Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield. And they had ‘top-up’ veterans Heath Shaw, Ryan Griffen, Shane Mumford, and Steve Johnson.

It was possibly ‘peak-GWS’. It ended however with them losing their preliminary final to a red-hot Western Bulldogs, with Bulldog Clay Smith playing the game of his life.

The Giants were expected to be as strong, or even stronger, in years to come. Player unavailability and departures though weakened their side somewhat over the next couple of years, although with fewer dominant sides around they still managed to finish fourth and sixth. In 2017 they lost Coniglio, Griffen, Johnson, Greene, and Whitfield for significant time due to injuries or suspension. In 2018 they lost Greene again for significant time, as well as Kelly, Patton, Mumford, and Zac Williams (see table above). They also lost Devon Smith and Nathan Wilson to other teams.

This season, it looked like they could be further weakened by player departures. Dylan Shiel, Tom Scully, and Rory Lobb all left, with the Giants reportedly facing a ‘salary cap squeeze’. Maybe the AFL’s seemingly predestined dynasty had missed its window.

2019: the Giants are looking close to their best again

It’s still early in 2019, but the Giants have so far again been performing closer to their ‘peak’ 2016 levels.

Over their first four matches of the season, their average net margin adjusted for estimated opponent strength and home ground advantage is +35 points (see chart below). The Giants have thrashed finals aspirants Essendon and Richmond, and impressively, beat top-ranked Geelong at the Cats’ home ground on the weekend (though they did get well beat by West Coast). They are again among the league’s leaders for points scored and points allowed.

Looking further back, since their horror stretch towards the middle of last season, the Giants have been one of the league’s strongest teams, and now sit second on the rankings.

Despite those player departures, the Giants still have a pretty good list. Shiel and Scully are gone, but their places in the midfield have been filled by some of the high draft picks GWS got after their initial 2011 draft harvest (see table in previous section). This includes Josh Kelly, Tim Taranto, and Jacob Hopper, as well as the team’s leading possession getter Lachie Whitfield, who has covered so much ground that he leads the team in inside 50s and is second in rebound 50s.

As in 2018 Toby Greene and Jonathon Patton have been mostly unavailable so far, but the Giants have covered their scoring through increased production from Cameron and moving Jeremy Finlayson to the forward line. Mumford is back in the ruck. On the negative side, the Giants have now lost captain Callan Ward to a serious knee injury.

Can they keep this up? I still think the Giants are not quite as deep as that 2016 side. Whitfield, Cameron, and Hopper are playing well beyond the levels they have performed at in their careers to date, and they may need to keep doing so for the Giants to stay in their current form. They do still have Greene and Patton to return though.

In any case, the Giants seem to have kept their ‘premiership window’ open based on their season to date. Another decent finals run may be ahead of them, and finally, a chance to win their first premiership.