AFL Power Rankings: Round 6 2019

After being the big improver in 2018, Melbourne’s form has dropped the most of any AFL team this season. Last year’s highest-scoring team is now having trouble putting points on the board.

Melbourne is the team that has fallen the most

In 2018, Melbourne was the most improved team according to these rankings, zooming all the way to the top of the rankings, and more importantly making a preliminary final. The Demons gained about four goals worth of ranking points last season. In just six rounds this season they have lost almost all of those gains.

So far in 2019, Melbourne’s average net margin adjusted for estimated opponent strength and home ground advantage is -23 points (see chart above). That is not just regressing to 2017 levels for the Demons; that is around their 2015 levels of performance, when they won just seven games.

Where has it gone wrong?

Champion Data ranked Melbourne’s playing list as the best going into this season. Over the first six rounds of 2019, Melbourne ranks second-last for points scored, and have allowed the most points. In 2018 the Demons were the highest scorers per game, and were about middle of the pack for points allowed. However, they still rank eighth in inside 50 differential – even after Richmond thrashed them in that aspect in their ANZAC match – indicating that their problems may lie more on their forward and back lines than the midfield.

Up forward

Last year Tom McDonald turned from one of the best big defenders in the competition to one of the best big forwards. McDonald averaged almost three goals, three marks inside 50, and two contested marks per game. This year he is averaging around one or less per game in all of those categories. In Round 6 McDonald was moved back to defence. With Jesse Hogan having departed for Fremantle, the Demons have effectively lost their two main big forwards from last season.

Sam Weideman averages only a goal per game. Smaller forwards Alex Neal-Bullen and Charlie Spargo have kicked just two goals between them from seven combined matches. Only Jake Melksham seems to have carried over his 2018 form on the forward line, with nine goals and 11 goal assists this season, easily leading the Demons in both categories.

Down back

Down back the Demons have lost two big defenders to injury, with 2018 recruit Jake Lever still sidelined from last season’s knee injury, and 2019 recruit Steven May having played only one game. The high rating of Melbourne’s defence coming into this season then is probably more about what they could be rather than what they have been.

Some of those on the field though have dropped their output too. 2017 All-Australian Michael Hibberd is averaging only 15 disposals and three rebound 50s per game, way down on the 28 disposals and seven rebound 50s per game he averaged in 2017 (not that his 2018 matched that output either). Oscar McDonald is averaging only seven disposals per game (down from 12 last year). Like Melksham in the forward line, Christian Salem and first-year player Marty Hore have been the main sparks of hope in defence, averaging about 45 disposals and a dozen rebound 50s per game between them.

Putting Tom McDonald down back against Richmond seemed to help him regain some form and stop the Tigers’ weight of inside 50 entries from being even more damaging. McDonald recorded a massive 19 one percenters and ten rebound 50s. It seems he would be shifted back once Lever and May return though, and while it does last it comes at the expense of making the forward line even barer for options.   

The midfield too

Some of the blame for Melbourne’s drop should go to the midfield as well, even though they are still performing at a relatively high level. Melbourne ranks first for clangers and turnovers in 2019 – they ranked third for clangers per game in 2018, but they also had many more disposals. Clayton Oliver, one of the league’s best midfielders last year, has averaged a horrid six clangers per match, up from four per game in 2018. Several of Melbourne’s midfielders, and forward-midfielders, are each averaging an extra turnover per game.

Melbourne is still doing reasonably well in the clearances, but they might be able to do with the boost Jack Viney gave them when he played ‘inside’ last year. Viney averaged over seven clearances per game in his ten matches for 2018, and has averaged half that number in 2019. Oliver, Angus Brayshaw, and James Harmes have been generally fine at winning the ball, and Max Gawn is still possibly the best ruckman for hit outs in the game. The midfield is not the biggest of Melbourne’s concerns, but it is no longer strong enough to cover over the cracks elsewhere.

But really … where has it all gone wrong?

I don’t know. Melbourne was my pre-season premiership pick. I was in broad agreement when Champion Data rated their list as the best in the league. It may still be. I don’t know why so many of their players have dropped in form though.

I’ve seen some people draw comparisons to Richmond’s 2016 season, when the Tigers fell badly from their finals appearance the previous year before recovering the next year to win the premiership. Melbourne is playing just about as ‘badly’ as Richmond did in 2016. Maybe it’ll improve when Lever and May return. Or maybe it’ll take just as drastic a re-invention as the Tigers underwent to take the Demons back towards the top again.