Without Tom Mitchell, Hawthorn appears to
be a decent but middle-of-the-pack side.
The Hawks haven't been quite as good this year
Hawthorn – the most successful team of the 2010s – finished fourth on the ladder last year after the home and away season, though there were probably a couple of teams below the Hawks that were better. This year one could have predicted the Hawks to finish anywhere from fourth to twelfth, and probably got a fair amount of agreement either way. Where is Hawthorn actually at?
Hawthorn did finish off last year’s home and away season well, winning ten of their last twelve matches. Even accounting for some weak opposition, the Hawks’ results were pretty good (see chart below). Their finals series was not good though, with Richmond and Melbourne eliminating them fairly comfortably.
Hawthorn – the most successful team of the 2010s – finished fourth on the ladder last year after the home and away season, though there were probably a couple of teams below the Hawks that were better. This year one could have predicted the Hawks to finish anywhere from fourth to twelfth, and probably got a fair amount of agreement either way. Where is Hawthorn actually at?
Hawthorn did finish off last year’s home and away season well, winning ten of their last twelve matches. Even accounting for some weak opposition, the Hawks’ results were pretty good (see chart below). Their finals series was not good though, with Richmond and Melbourne eliminating them fairly comfortably.
This year, the Hawks have been slightly above average, and sit about in the middle of both the ladder and the rankings. They’ve had some impressive wins against Adelaide away, GWS, and Port Adelaide (the latter over this past weekend). They’ve also had some bad losses against the Bulldogs and St. Kilda, and a narrow win against Carlton.
Missing Tom Mitchell
In 2018 Brownlow Medal-winning midfielder Tom Mitchell set a season record for disposals, and also recorded the second-highest ever number of clearances. Unfortunately Mitchell will miss the entire 2019 season with a broken leg. How much are the Hawks missing Mitchell?
Quite a bit. No one player is going to significantly make or break a football side of twenty-two players. Hawthorn is down a bit though in some of the main statistics that rely heavily on midfield performance (see table below). The Hawks rank last this year in clearance differential with their opponents, and are no longer among the top teams for inside 50 differential as they were last year.
Some
of Mitchell’s production has been picked up others, in particular Jaegar
O’Meara and James Worpel. It’s tough though to completely replace Mitchell’s 35
disposals, eight clearances, and five inside 50s per game, and the increases in
output from O’Meara and Worpel compared to last season haven’t done it. Both
are doing more, but neither would be considered among the best ‘inside’
midfielders. Ricky Henderson’s improvement – at over 30 years of age – has been
more significant, but while he replaces some of Mitchell’s work in terms of
gaining possessions and metres, he doesn’t replace Mitchell’s work in contests.
The Hawks may still finish as a top six side, particularly if they play like they did against Port. Or they may still finish twelfth. As impressive as they’ve been at times though, they’re probably not challenging for a premiership until they at least see the return of their star midfielder, and more besides.
The Hawks may still finish as a top six side, particularly if they play like they did against Port. Or they may still finish twelfth. As impressive as they’ve been at times though, they’re probably not challenging for a premiership until they at least see the return of their star midfielder, and more besides.
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