AFL Power Rankings: Round 18 2019

Carlton has become the second team this season to significantly improve after a change of coach.

A few weeks ago, this blog showed how much North Melbourne had improved after its coach Brad Scott left, and was replaced by Rhyce Shaw. Another team replaced its coach this year when, after its Round 11 loss, Carlton sacked its fourth-year coach Brendon Bolton. Carlton had been awful in 2018 and in the first 11 rounds of 2019, winning just three matches in that span. Like the Kangaroos, Carlton named a ‘caretaker’ coach – David Teague – for the rest of the season.

Carlton’s transformation in its six matches since has been about as dramatic as that of the Shaw-led Roos. The Blues have won four out of those six matches, and lost the other two matches by less than a goal. While Brisbane is the only team they have played in that stretch that is in the top eight, being able to beat the lower sides is still a major improvement compared to where they were at. Even after adjusting for the strength of their opponents, Carlton has performed more like a side that is about average (see chart below).

Teams scored on average over 100 points a game against Carlton last season. In the Blues’ two most recent losses, the other team has also scored over 100 points. In their four wins however their opponents have scored no more than 75 points. Also, except for against Gold Coast, Carlton has had more inside 50s than their opponents in all of those wins.

The improvement in form could be attributed to the development of a young side. Actually though, it is probably more that the ‘older’ players have performed better. Ed Curnow (29 years old) and Marc Murphy (31 years old) have upped their contested possession count in recent weeks. Matthew Kreuzer (30), Kade Simpson (35), Levi Casboult (29), Liam Jones (28), and Nic Newman (26) have also been important to the turnaround. By using this mature core well, Teague now has the makings of a half-decent side.

An article on the ABC News site last week showed that being an AFL coach is actually a relatively secure professional coaching job. Does the improvement in North Melbourne and Carlton this season suggest that clubs should look at changing coaches more often? Should St. Kilda – also winners on the weekend – expect some improvement now that it has parted ways with its coach Alan Richardson? The cost of an expensive pay out aside, it is not clear that, on average, changing a coach or manager leads to any more improvement than if the incumbent had stayed on.

Carlton though was in the position where things could not have been much worse. David Teague has at least given the Blues some definite improvement in the short-term; whether this translates to improvement in the long-term remains to be seen.