AFL Rankings: Round 9 2020

This week: the Western Bulldogs continue their inconsistent form, and Essendon is exposed by one of the top sides.

Inconsistent Doggies

The Western Bulldogs lost to Richmond by 41 points on Wednesday night in a match they were never really in. It continued the Dogs’ run of inconsistent form this season. It was the Bulldogs’ fourth loss by 39 points or more this season, following big losses to Collingwood, St. Kilda, and Carlton. They have also had four wins by 24 points or more; their win against Gold Coast last week was their only close match.

Based on my adjustments of final game margin for opponent strength and home ground advantage, the Bulldogs have had the most variability in their results this season (see chart above). The standard deviation of their adjusted net margins is +39 points, the highest of any team.

However, the variability in their performances may not be quite as much as their results. Against top sides Collingwood and Richmond the Bulldogs were dismantled, with 13 more turnovers and 13 less inside 50s against the Tigers, and 71 less disposals and 20 less inside 50s against the Magpies. Against the Blues though they recorded more disposals and 12 more inside 50s; they just could not convert that edge into scores. The Saints also largely beat them through better conversion inside 50.

For the season as a whole, the Bulldogs are close to even in their differentials for disposals, contested possessions, turnovers, and inside 50s. Overall this may indicate that the Dogs are not the rising team they looked like in the back half of last year, but they may still have enough to challenge for a finals spot.

The Bombers come unstuck

Essendon may have been starting to feel reasonably confident about its finals chances this year, sitting at seventh on the ladder but with a game in hand that – if the Bombers won – would move them up to third. They were exposed by the Lions on the weekend though, losing by ten goals, and scoring only 29 points.

The Bombers had, up until that point, a reasonably easy fixture. Their win against Collingwood in Round 5 was an impressive one. But apart from that their wins had come against Fremantle, Sydney, North Melbourne, and Adelaide, who have a combined record of 9 wins and 27 losses. Further, three of those wins were by a goal or less.

This was part of why the rankings only had Essendon at fourteenth going into this round. Up until the match against the Lions the Bombers had overall been about average this season. Towards the end of last season though they had been well below average, with huge losses against Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs (see chart above).

While the Bombers will arguably not be playing anyone as strong as the Lions in the next few weeks, their fixture does become harder than it has been to date. Essendon fans would be hoping that the side that played so well against the Magpies is still lurking up in Queensland somewhere.