AFL Rankings: Finals 2020

Richmond may not generally be as dominant as other recent ‘dynasties’, but they are when it counts most.

For the second year in a row, and the third year out of the past four, Richmond are premiers. The Tigers beat Geelong by 31 points in the first ever AFL Grand Final played at night, and the first ever played in Queensland. Directly after their win, much talk turned to Richmond’s place among the very best teams of this (and last) century.

First off, I’ll note that Richmond didn’t even quite end up as the #1 team on my rankings. The Cats held that positon after their huge wins in the finals against Collingwood (68 points) and Brisbane (40 points). However Geelong cannot seem to get past Richmond, having now lost to them in the finals in each of the Tigers’ premiership years.

This suggests that Richmond may not be quite as dominant as other recent ‘dynasties’. The three teams that have won three flags in quick succession in the 2000s were the Brisbane Lions in 2001-03, Geelong in 2007, 2009, and 2011, and Hawthorn in 2013-15. Each of those teams had a higher winning percentage, and higher percentage of points for compared with against, than the Tigers in their premiership year (see table below) – particularly the Cats and Hawks. The Cats and Hawks also perhaps had tougher opposition in contention for the flag, based on the records of other top four sides in their premiership years. Indeed, the ‘all-conquering’ Tigers are not that far above the team that got eliminated in the first week of the finals for three straight years in 2013-15.

Where these Tigers match the other successful sides, and separate themselves from their one-and-done counterparts, is their record in finals. With the exception of Port Adelaide in their preliminary final this year (they also lost their qualifying final to Brisbane), and arguably Geelong last year, they have generally gone through teams like a wrecking ball, with an overall percentage of 164.6%. That is slightly below the Cats, but better than the Hawks and Lions, and of course way better than the Tiger sides that could not make it into the finals’ second week.

So it seems that Richmond’s dominance comes from playing at or near their best when it matters most. In that regard, they are perhaps most similar to the Brisbane Lions teams that were held in such awe as they rattled off three straight flags early this century. The Lions never finished on top, as the Tigers have not done either – at least during the years they won premierships – but they crushed opponents in the finals, with six wins of 40 or more points. Like the Tigers, they seemed to learn how to time their runs just right.

Of course, Richmond’s stepping it up a gear at the business end of the season is emblematic of the performances of their best player, Dustin Martin, who has been the best performer in both the finals and Grand Final of all three of their premiership years. Martin has kicked an astonishing 24 goals in the Tigers’ ten finals in those years, whereas he has averaged closer to a goal per game during the home and away rounds. In the two of those finals he kicked the least goals he racked up 19 inside 50s. He led the team in contested possessions in all three of their Grand Final wins. There has probably never been an attacking force in big games quite like him.

So another season over, and we’ve ended up where we began – the Tigers will remain the reigning premiers next year. As a Richmond supporter, this pleases me greatly; still I hope we never see another year like this, and it is a happier season overall for players and fans (except perhaps this year’s lucky fans in Queensland) in 2021.