AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 4 2021

Yes, I will acknowledge Fremantle…

In last week’s post I said that even though Fremantle had won ten matches straight, they were ‘beatable’ and arguably hadn’t been as dominant in their wins as the Kangaroos. The Kangaroos have then proceeded to lose their second straight match, didn’t kick a goal, and the Dockers now sit on top of the rankings.

So yes, OK, the rankings say that Fremantle are the best team now. Though watch out for those Crows lurking just behind … they did have as many scoring shots as the Dockers when they played them, you know – which brings me to my next topic…

Points or scoring shots – what’s a better indicator of form?

My rankings are based on the final points margin. On the weekend though, Melbourne had double the scoring shots and inside 50s of the Bulldogs, and lost by two goals. The Kangaroos had as many scoring shots and more inside 50s than Collingwood, and lost by 20 points. As I mentioned above, Adelaide had as many scoring shots and inside 50s as Fremantle last week. Should we really be looking at the number of scoring shots instead, at least for AFLW where there’s less opportunities for goal accuracy to even out over the game?

Maybe. If we compared teams’ percentage by points this season with percentage by scoring shots, they are (probably unsurprisingly) fairly similar (see table below). The most significant changes are that Adelaide has the second best percentage, while Brisbane and Collingwood fall down the order – Brisbane in particular goes from a giant percentage of over 250 to a more ‘mortal’ 150 mark. At the other end, the improving Tigers look even a bit better.

Unlike the rankings the table above is not adjusted for opponent strength, but the scoring shot relativities don’t seem too far off where teams would be commonly thought to ‘sit in the pecking order’ so far this season. Adelaide and Brisbane seem to be more in line with where they ‘should’ be – although there could be some recency bias in that assessment given the weekend’s result – though perhaps the undefeated Magpies may seem on the low side.