AFL Rankings: Round 16 2021

Melbourne has been the premiership favourite in recent weeks, but the Western Bulldogs and the Brisbane Lions look to be the strongest teams at the moment.

About two-thirds of the way through the 2021 AFL season there now looks to be six ‘top’ teams, that is six teams that have mostly guaranteed a finals spot – the Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Geelong, and Sydney.

Melbourne had been the premiership favourites in recent weeks, given their great record against the other top sides. The Demons had won this season against all of the Bulldogs, Brisbane, and Geelong by more than 20 points, and also beat Sydney, with Port to come this weekend.

These were great performances by the Demons, and may give them some confidence at finals time. However, the rankings have them as only the fifth-strongest side (TAB has them third in terms of premiership betting). Some poorer performances against lower sides – such as their loss against GWS at the MCG on the weekend – have partially offset their strong record against the top teams. This also reflects though that some other teams have, as a whole, put up more impressive performances over the season.

First on that list is the current ladder leader and premiership favourite the Western Bulldogs. The Dogs have the highest percentage this year (147.6%), helped by two massive wins of 100+ points against North Melbourne and St. Kilda. Premiership teams tend to be those that have dominated their opponents rather than those that have got their wins by squeaking by, and the Bulldogs certainly fit that profile this season.

One side however has been challenging the Bulldogs for their ability to demolish teams in recent weeks, which is the Brisbane Lions. Brisbane started the season slowly, which included a first round loss to the Swans that had some questioning their premiership credentials (I’m sorry Lions). In  the past nine weeks though they have had five ‘very good’ performances (see table above) – beating Port and Geelong (at home) by more than 40 points, and thrashing Gold Coast, Adelaide, and GWS. They arguably have no main area of weakness at the moment, and if they can get a top-two finish and home finals (state border restrictions permitting) they look like they will be pretty hard to stop.

Of the other ‘contenders’, Geelong has again been very solid, although its two strongest wins have come against West Coast and Richmond – two teams whose stocks are falling. Port Adelaide meanwhile has had plenty of ‘good’ performances this season (see table above), but not dominant performances. Its best win was against the Gold Coast Suns, which possibly did not get as much credit as it should have, with the media and fans focusing more on the Suns for their poor performance. Port looks solid as well, but not among the top contenders at present.

As for the Swans, despite their huge win against West Coast (in Geelong!) on the weekend, they look to be an ‘outside’ contender. Their two best wins prior to that, which were big away wins against Brisbane and Richmond, came in the first three rounds. In the eleven weeks in between they have been about average, with that stretch including fairly large losses to lowly-ranked teams Gold Coast and Hawthorn.

Still to state the somewhat obvious, winning the actual games from here on out will be crucial. A team may look to be the strongest, but given how close the top sides are on the ladder a couple of dropped matches could see it have to try and win the premiership from outside the top two or even the top four. The top teams may have got clear of the pack and virtually secured their finals spots, but there will still be plenty of interest in where exactly they end up heading into September.