AFL Rankings: Round 2 2022

Another Buddy take

There was plenty written and spoken about the career of Sydney forward Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin over the past week as he approached – and reached – the milestone of 1000 goals. Some pondered if he was the greatest goal-kicker to ever play the game. While for me that is still John Coleman, I thought I would show something beyond just the raw goal figures to show how incredible Franklin’s scoring prowess has been relative to his contemporaries.

Most people are aware of Franklin’s high number of goals compared to other key forwards of the past 20 years. What makes that total even more impressive though is that Buddy is anything but a ‘stay-at-home’ full forward, even in an era where big forwards have tended to move more up the ground. Franklin has also averaged over three inside 50s per match, which of the main big forwards of the modern era is closer to centre-half forwards like Nick Riewoldt and Jonathan Brown than full forwards and fellow Coleman Medallists like Jack Riewoldt, Josh Kennedy, and Tom Hawkins. Yet Franklin has outscored those forwards playing deeper by nearly a goal a match. An important part of Franklin’s game has been his ability to score from distance, making him an unusually high-scoring player from the half forward area. 

The closest of Franklin’s contemporaries in terms of scoring heavily across his career while playing significant portions of that career higher up the ground is probably Matthew Pavlich. Adding together scoring shots, inside 50s and rebound 50s, Franklin averaged nine of these per game and Pavlich eight per game, while other top key forwards have averaged between five and seven per game (see table above). Franklin and Pavlich did start their careers earlier than players like Jack Riewoldt, Kennedy, and Hawkins, and scoring has trended down over time. However, adjustments for scoring by era indicate that might bring those players closer to Pavlich in terms of adjusted impact, while Franklin’s career still overlaps enough with those other forwards to suggest he would remain clearly ahead.

So best goalkicker ever? – not for me. But one of the most effective, most impactful forwards ever – no doubt.

But Geelong probably still should have spoiled the party

However, as inevitable as Franklin and Sydney’s celebration on the weekend seems now, their opponent Geelong probably should have won the match. The Cats led the Swans in scoring shots, inside 50s, intercepts, and clearances, but kicked 17 behinds to Sydney’s five.

It was part of a trend on the weekend of teams with higher expected scores losing matches through inaccuracy. Given their smashing of the Bombers last week, and their generally strong figures across the board this week despite the loss, I am still fairly high on the Cats’ prospects at this point.