AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 10 2022

 

Season over

The 2022 AFLW home and away season ended this week, but for most of the ‘expansion’ AFLW teams – Geelong, Gold Coast, Richmond, St. Kilda and West Coast – their chance of making the finals effectively ended several weeks ago. They were all still clearly a significant way off the more established teams aside from GWS, and most of their wins came against each other. Geelong was probably the most competitive of the bunch this season, with relatively small deficits in their scoring shot and inside 50 differentials, though they took a step back in the final couple of rounds.

However, they will all have the chance to be the experienced ‘establishment’ to the next and final wave of AFLW teams joining next season. It will be interesting to see if they form a clear tier above them or not.  

GWS (as mentioned above) were only slightly better, getting routinely well beaten by the top teams and mostly only beating the ‘expansion’ sides. The Western Bulldogs and Carlton were more competitive, although they didn’t trouble much the top six. Carlton got a tough fixture, playing all of the top six sides and not beating any of them, although they did run Melbourne to the barest of margins in the final rounds. The Bulldogs had a famous win against Adelaide, but otherwise largely filled their position as a ‘middle-ranked’ side.

Player of the season

Fremantle’s Kiara Bowers and Collingwood’s Brianna Davey were the joint winners of the AFLW best and fairest last season, and given how teams dipped in form after they were injured this season, there is little doubt of their value.

This year three players stand out for me: Adelaide duo Anne Hatchard and Ebony Marnioff, and North Melbourne’s Ash Riddell. These three led the league for disposals, and they were all in the top dozen for marks, metres gained, inside 50s, and contested possessions. They were also clearly the top three for Fantasy points (which I have a bit more stock in than for the men’s league).

It is hard to choose between Marinoff and Hatchard as to who was the Crows’ best player, which is part of why I lean towards Ash Riddell as the player of the 2022 season. In a midfield that hardly lacks for talent she emerged as the clear #1 option, and capped off her home and away season by collecting an AFLW record 42 disposals in last weekend’s game against the Eagles. With the Roos achieving seven wins from their ten matches and a top four finish, I think she is a strong pick for this year’s B&F award.

Predicting the 2022 AFLW Finals

Finally, we come to the six finalists for this season: Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane, North Melbourne, Fremantle, and Collingwood. That these six teams have made it to the 2022 AFLW Finals was fairly likely – after all they made it last year – but now things will get a bit less predictable as we see over the next few weeks which of these teams comes out on top.

My view is that it is largely a three team ‘race’, which is supported by the current premiership betting odds, between Adelaide, Melbourne, and Brisbane. In addition to being two of the best teams Adelaide and Melbourne will have a ‘bye’ through the first week of the finals and home ground advantage in the second week. Brisbane meanwhile – aside from being the reigning premiers – have on form been the strongest of the first week finalists.

Assuming Brisbane can get through the first week of the finals, a Melbourne-Brisbane preliminary final is shaping as a ‘pivotal’ clash. The home teams will go in as heavy favourites in all other matches leading up to the Grand Final. Melbourne is likely to have a tough time dealing with the Lions however, even at home. The Lions romped through their final four matches with an average winning margin of 53 points, and they have ended the home and away season leading the league in points, scoring shots, and inside 50s differentials. Meanwhile over the past month, the Demons, aside from their amazing 88-point win against Fremantle, have won by only 1, 3, and 10 points – albeit one of those wins came against the Lions.

So while Melbourne currently rate very highly on the rankings, and they could still well end up winning the premiership, I would be hesitant to put money on them at their current $2.50 odds. Adelaide at the same odds, and with home ground advantage all the way through, are to me a stronger prospect. Brisbane at slightly longer odds, would have been my favourite for the flag with a top two finish, but they will now have to take a tougher road to get there.

Hopefully in a somewhat uneven season – in more ways than one – we’re now set for some strong, close finishes.