AFL Rankings: Finals 2022

A perennial finalist finds room to improve

After nine unsuccessful finals series in ten years, Geelong are finally premiers again, easily beating the Sydney Swans in the Grand Final by 81 points. Every year seemed to be the Cats’ last go at it, and every year they seemed to load up with established players and go again, only to fall short in the final stages to a younger, faster, higher pressure side. This year though, with the oldest AFL team ever assembled, the Cats looked a step above everyone else, harking back to the great Geelong sides of 2007 to 2011.

Amazingly for a team that has been a perennial top four side for the past decade, and which had almost half their premiership side aged over 30, the Cats were possibly the biggest improver in 2022. Their points differential per game improved from a respectable 12 points in 2021 to a dominant 33 points in 2022 (see table below), putting them among the best teams of the AFL era. Their inside 50 differential jumped from six to 13 per game. The Cats moved away from their ‘chip-mark’ style of 2021 and went for a more direct route when they had the ball with their uncontested possessions differential falling by over 30 possessions per game. They were more damaging both in defence and attack, easily leading the league for differentials in intercepts and marks inside 50.

A relatively old side can be an indication that your team is also relatively deep. Based on the AFL Player Ratings, nearly every finalist had a player with a higher average rating this year than the Cats’ top player Tom Stewart (see table below). The Cats however had a strong ‘top 10’ – Stewart, fellow All-Australians Mark Blicavs, Jeremy Cameron, Tom Hawkins and Tyson Stengle, former All-Australians Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, and Cameron Guthrie, along with big improver Tom Atkins and experienced ruck Rhys Stanley. Their ‘next 10’, which included Norm Smith Medal winner Isaac Smith, Mitch Duncan, and Rising Star contender Sam De Koning, were also on the whole highly reliable. Their solid list build of recent years finally won out.

Geelong this season was about as dominant, possibly more so, than Melbourne last season. As the Demons showed this year, things can change quickly, even for teams that mostly seem to be in the ‘prime’ of their careers. The Cats’ ability to keep finding strong performers is going to come under greater strain as many of their current stars retire over the next few years. But that seemed to be the story back in 2011, and they found a way to stay competitive, so who would bet against them?