AFL Rankings: Round 3 2023

The first will be last and the last will be first

After three rounds of the 2023 AFL season there is only one winless team, which isn’t much of a surprise. What is a massive surprise though is that team is reigning premiers Geelong, who destroyed almost everything before them over the second half of 2022. Indeed, my rankings still have them as the top-ranked side! – reflecting just how far ahead they were of the competition in the latter part of last season.

The Cats have not been awful over their first three matches, losing by a combined 49 points (16 points per game), but it is a long way below their performances to end the 2022 season, particularly the finals. Following a close win over Collingwood in their first final, the Cats smashed through Brisbane and Sydney with a combined winning margin of 152 points. Geelong were dominant in winning the ball, retaining it, and getting the ball forward, with positive differentials in contested possessions (+23), uncontested possessions (+24), intercepts (+12), and inside 50s (+14). Those have all become negative in 2023 (see table below). Areas that the Cats were slightly behind in such as clearances and one percenters have taken a turn for the worse as well.

In my wrap-up of their 2022 premiership I noted the Cats were deep. Stars such as Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron have still been great to start 2023. Of their top ten rated players from 2022 though (according to the AFL Player Ratings – see table below), Joel Selwood has retired, while forwards Tom Hawkins and last year’s surprise All-Australian Tyson Stengle have so far been significantly less able to win the ball and kick goals. Of their ‘second tier’, some players have been missing like Mitch Duncan, and Jack Henry, while others such as Brad Close have so far significantly regressed. New additions Tanner Bruhn, Oliver Henry, Jack Bowes, and Esava Ratugolea (on the list last year but not a regular) have been – based on their ratings – generally underwhelming.

Geelong are about to come into an easier run of matches, starting with their old foe and current fellow cellar-dweller Hawthorn. The rankings – along with other systems and punters – still heavily favour the Cats to win. They had such a large margin on the rest of the league coming into the season that it is going to take a few more losses (or narrow wins) yet for the rankings to not consider them still one of the best teams in the AFL.