AFL Rankings: Round 6 2023

Richmond may not have had the same success in 2022 as they had from 2017 to 2020, when they won three premierships, but they were an offensive machine, averaging almost 100 points per game. This year the scoring has not flowed nearly as easily and the Tigers are averaging around four goals less per game. Part of that is due to a drop in accuracy when kicking for goal, and part of it is due to lower inside 50 entries, but a significant part of it is due to less scoring shots per inside 50 (see table below). The Tigers not converting inside 50 dominance into scoring dominance was most notable in their draw against Carlton, and their recent loss to Melbourne.

This drop in ‘offensive efficiency’ can be due to worse delivery inside 50, or a drop in ability of the forwards to score from inside 50, or both. In this case, it is looking like a bit of both. The Tigers’ average turnovers and non-free kick clangers have increased, and they are averaging the most turnovers in the league (see table above). But also, their average marks inside 50 have dropped – though some may blame that mostly on worse delivery.

Much has been made of the lack of results so far from the Tigers’ big off-season recruits in Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper. In 2022, as in season before that, the Tigers benefitted from relatively good inside 50 entries from Dustin Martin, Shai Bolton, and Jayden Short (see table below). The results of the recruits have been mixed. As has been well-noted elsewhere, Taranto’s kicking efficiency has been relatively poor, and even compared with similar midfielders like Dion Prestia and Trent Cotchin last year, his turnovers and (non-free kick) clangers have been high. (The counter-argument on Taranto’s value is that his ball-winning ability is creating more opportunities for the team.) Hopper on the other hand has been pretty good, averaging the most inside 50s for the Tigers, but lower down for clangers and turnovers.

One thing of note among the Tigers’ main midfielders is that the average turnovers of players such as Martin, Bolton, and Marlion Pickett have increased, even though their non-free kick clangers are around the same as last season. That suggests the forwards are also having something to do with the drop in connections.

Richmond highly benefitted last year from great performances up forward by Tom Lynch and Shai Bolton. This season, Lynch has recently missed games through injury, and Bolton has been less of a focal point up forward with the inclusions of Samson Ryan and Noah Cumberland. In the games he has played, Lynch was still fairly good in terms of marks inside 50 and goals per game, but was not quite at the high levels he was last season (see table below). Ryan can’t really replace Lynch, though Jack Riewoldt has done an admirable job. Cumberland though has been less effective up forward after an impressive showing in the latter part of 2022, averaging less marks inside 50, less goals, and way more clangers.

The Tigers haven’t been particularly bad, despite winning only one game, with a relatively tough early fixture. They’ve come back a bit in terms of their top-end talent though, and their drop in performance in the forward line have possibly exposed Taranto’s weaknesses more. What looked like one last tilt at a flag may end up as a year in transition, moving on from the remaining three-time premiership stars to the next group that the Richmond fans hope will take their club forward to more success.