AFL Rankings: Round 20 2023

Adelaide > Port Adelaide?!

Before last week’s ‘Showdown’ the suggestion that Adelaide could be better than their cross-town rivals Port Adelaide might have been met with some derision. The Power after all are sitting second on the AFL ladder, had a club record thirteen-match winning streak in the middle of the season, and just fell short of beating league leaders Collingwood the week before. The Crows meanwhile had won less than half of their games and, despite falling just short themselves in beating top four side Melbourne on the road, were ‘languishing’ in thirteenth spot on the ladder.

Adelaide however comfortably beat Port Adelaide by 47 points. The Crows are still well behind the Power on the ladder, but they did leapfrog them in the rankings, which have rated them higher than their actual AFL ladder position for several weeks now. What’s the deal?

Well, although Port Adelaide has won five more games than Adelaide this season, that has been on the back of several narrow wins for the Power, and several narrow losses for the Crows. Port have won five games by less than ten points, against Sydney, St. Kilda, Essendon twice, and Melbourne. In contrast Adelaide have lost to Melbourne, and Collingwood twice, by less than a goal. Adelaide’s average winning margin is 48 points and their average losing margin is just 18 points (see table below), while Port’s average winning margin is just 25 points and their average losing margin is 40 points.

The result is Adelaide’s points for compared with points against (i.e. percentage) is actually better than Port Adelaide’s, at a fairly impressive 116 compared with 110. That is boosted by a massive 122 point win by the Crows against bottom team West Coast, but even taking that out the two teams have been similar in terms of their net margins (see table above).

A good sign for Port Adelaide being a top side is they have a great inside 50 ratio, getting the ball into their forward area 15 per cent more than their opponents, while the Crows are about even on this measure. But Adelaide have been more effective in scoring when they get the ball inside 50, averaging 1.78 points per inside 50, to the Power’s 1.59. And so it played out on the weekend, with Adelaide having only one more inside 50 than Port Adelaide, but kicking seven more goals.

Port Adelaide are of course in the more enviable ladder position, nestled in the top four, while Adelaide have a large battle on their hands just to make it to the finals. But the difference between the two sides is probably not nearly as large as the ladder suggests, and quite encouraging for the Crows.