AFL Rankings: Round 22 2023

The top four teams of 2023 are not in top form

From Round 9 onwards this season, the top four teams on the AFL ladder have been in some order: Collingwood, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, and Melbourne. This led many to suggest even from midway through the season that there is a ‘clear’ group of four frontrunners for this year’s premiership, and then about ten teams battling it out for the other four spots in the finals.

The actual picture though may be a bit more ‘muddled’. Of my top nine ranked teams, the four that are actually rated the ‘weakest’ over the past five weeks in terms of ranking points are the aforementioned top four (see table below). Port Adelaide had a strong win on the weekend, but before that lost four straight matches. Collingwood lost by five goals to Hawthorn last week, and Brisbane lost by seven goals to Gold Coast a couple of weeks ago. Collingwood, Brisbane, and Melbourne have all had a couple of close wins in the past month, though noting some of those were against the other top four sides.

In contrast, some of the teams outside the top four have been in relatively strong form in recent weeks (see table above). Fifth-placed Carlton has won eight matches in a row by an average of 42 points, which has also vaulted them up to second on the rankings. Sydney have won five matches in a row and are now in the top eight. Geelong, the Western Bulldogs, and Adelaide have all had a couple of wins by big margins in recent weeks, though they have also had some unexpected losses.

To be sure, since the top eight started in 1994 the premiership has in most years been won by the top four teams (although really the top three), with only Adelaide in 1998 and the Western Bulldogs in 2016 winning the flag from lower down. Part of that is because it takes four straight wins against good teams to win the premiership from positions five to eight, which is one extra win than it takes for the top four. Another part of that is because the top four teams are often considerably stronger.

The first part of that will still be true this season. The second part however may not be so, perhaps giving the teams outside the top four a slightly stronger chance than most years.