AFL Rankings: Round 24 2023

So here we are at the end of the longest ‘home-and-away’ AFL season ever, and there probably still aren’t too many people outside of the most ‘one-eyed’ supporters who have a clear favourite to win the premiership from here. The top four teams have shown mixed form in recent weeks, while the team that looks to be the most in-form – the GWS Giants – had to win in the final match to even qualify for the finals in the first place.

In any case, let’s have a go at predicting again how the finals will play out, using the current rankings and estimated home ground advantage. Note here that most of these match-ups would be expected to be very close, and I’m not picking the winners with much confidence. Nevertheless, here’s the ‘head-to-head’ outcomes of how the rankings have the finals playing out.

Collingwood is the predicted Grand Final winner, at the Melbourne Cricket Ground over Brisbane. I’d also say however there’s not much less than a one-in-four chance the Magpies go out of the finals in ‘straight sets’. Still they finished on top of the ladder, and almost on top of the rankings, so they seem to have about as good a chance as anyone.

However, Collingwood was helped a bit this season by their opposition being inaccurate in front of goal. There’s a fair case to be made that the two strongest sides in the home-and-away season may have been Brisbane and Melbourne. Both have better differentials for scoring shots, inside 50s, ‘net possession chains’, and contested possessions than Collingwood (see table below). A slightly different rankings system could well have them as the two ‘best’ teams going into the finals – although the Pies and Demons do still have the advantage over the Lions that the Grand Final will be played in Melbourne no matter what happens.