AFL Rankings: Finals 2023

Collingwood won the 2023 AFL Grand Final over Brisbane, as I predicted at the start of the finals series. As I also predicted however, it easily could have gone another way, as the Magpies won their three finals by a combined 12 points.

In their first final Collingwood were well-beaten for forward entries as Melbourne had 32 more inside 50s (37-69), but benefitted from the Demons’ inefficiency in converting their entries to scores. Their second final with GWS was a more even affair, with the Magpies clearly winning the clearances (44-26) and GWS clearly winning the contested ball everywhere else (140-154), but with the other main statistics being relatively even. The Grand Final was almost a reverse of the Magpies’ first final as they had 14 more inside 50 entries than the Lions (57-43), but with inaccuracy in front of goal almost costing them the ultimate prize – they got there though.

Indeed, since their 2018 preliminary final, Collingwood has been in a bunch of close finals: losing by 5 points, winning by 10, losing by 4, winning by 1, losing by 68, losing by 6, losing by 1, winning by 7, winning by 1, and winning by 4. If things had gone a little less their way, they may have had no premierships over that period, but if things had gone a little more their way maybe they would have four? Although the Magpies have never been clearly the best team in any of those years (not even this one); their breakthrough is more a testament of giving yourself enough repeat opportunities in the finals that eventually you go all the way.

Collingwood in fact did not really stand out in any main area this season. They were sixth for average inside 50 differential per game, and tenth for average contested possession differential. Their defence stood up well against the barrage of Demon forward entries in their first final, but they didn’t stand out in stopping opposition scoring shots per inside 50 across the whole season. They were just solid in enough areas to compete in a season that there wasn’t a stand-out team in, and they had the close games go their way. There was a decent chance that whoever won the premiership this season was going to have that story though – in the end, someone had to win.

It made for an intriguing finals series in any case, compared with the past two seasons in which Geelong and Melbourne steamrolled their way through the final weeks. Comparisons are already being made between this season and 1993, which is so fondly remembered now that it had its own podcast series. At least Collingwood have now given their living supporters some more joy, for all the finals and Grand Finals they have made over the past 60 or so years.