AFL Rankings: Round 1 2024

For the first time ever, the two teams in the previous year’s Grand Final – Collingwood and Brisbane – have started the season with two losses. Weaknesses have been scrutinized, long bows are being drawn, but how bad is it really for last year’s top two teams?

First off, Brisbane were only two points away from winning their first match against Carlton – granted, giving up a 46 point lead isn’t encouraging, but they were moments away from currently being 1-1. Even then, Carlton’s accuracy is front of goal (13.8) helped them get over the line. Similarly, Collingwood were subject to exceptionally good accuracy in front of goal from their first-up opponent GWS (18.6).

Their second matches (in Round 1, naturally) were more concerning. Collingwood lost by five goals to Sydney, and didn’t look much like winning after the first quarter. Brisbane too fell away after the first quarter to lose by four goals to Fremantle.

Brisbane’s main concern so far has been converting forward entries into scores. They have had 21 more inside 50s than their opponents across their two games so far, but have had only two more scoring shots, and they rank fourth-last for scoring shots per inside 50. Two-time All-Australian forward Charlie Cameron has had a rough start to the year, with only 3.5 uncontested possessions per game (career average 6.5), and 45 per cent disposal efficiency (career average 63.7) – figures you would be almost sure he will improve upon.

Collingwood have been fairly even with their opponents across the board, except for one percenters – and obviously goals. Given the two teams they have faced – GWS and Sydney – may be the two most in-form teams at the moment, that could be viewed as slightly encouraging. In their premiership season too however, they were never really streets ahead of their opposition, with at most modest positive differentials in the main statistical categories, except notably accuracy in front of goal. Their performances so far may just indicate they were only a small step away from falling back into the pack.

That fine line extends now to the Lions’ and Magpies’ finals hopes. With the top half of teams closely bunched in terms of expected performance, a couple of losses now puts them in significantly more jeopardy of missing out. Conversely though, that also means it will only take a few wins to significantly improve their chances again. Grand Finals are obviously where everyone wants to end up, but they can exaggerate the gaps between teams – Collingwood and Brisbane were less the two dominant forces of last year than they were among a bunch of solid contenders that could have, without much surprise, made it through to the final week.