AFL Rankings: Round 5 2024

After five rounds there are two undefeated teams – one which is not surprising in the GWS Giants, and one which is more surprising in Geelong. Are the Cats really a contender, or have they just had an easy fixture so far, or both?

Geelong have had a relatively friendly draw so far, playing no team higher than eleventh on the ladder or tenth on the rankings. Three of those victories were nonetheless quite impressive in terms of ‘raw’ points: a 75-point win against North Melbourne, a 36-point win against Hawthorn, and a 19-point away win against Adelaide.

Part of Geelong’s success though has been better-than-expected accuracy – the Bulldogs had a 12-point higher expected score when they lost to the Cats, Adelaide had a 5-point higher expected score, and Hawthorn were only 5 points less. On expected score, Geelong would have ‘only’ three wins and a percentage of 118, placing them more in the bottom part of the eight.

Those wins are ‘gold’ however for the Cats’ finals chances. In an even competition and with a relatively friendly draw still to come, Geelong is currently expected to finish in the top two. Obviously an unexpected loss or two would change that quite quickly. But for now the Cats do have some ‘wriggle room’ to make a return to the finals this year