AFL Rankings: Round 9 2024

Essendon are ‘defying’ the rankings so far this season, currently sitting third on the AFL ladder – albeit a draw away from seventh – while still being only ranked fourteenth. Why the large discrepancy?

First, Essendon have a very low percentage for a third-placed team. Three of their wins were by a goal or less, and their two losses were by almost 100 points combined.

Second, Essendon had a terrible end to 2023. They lost three matches by 70 points or more, and they beat West Coast and North Melbourne by a combined 10 points. Their average net margin adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength was -45 points over their last seven games (see chart below). That is still one-third of the games included in the Bombers’ current ranking.

Not having much of an effect is the fixture. Essendon do have a couple of easy games coming up, but so far in 2024 they have played a mix of strong, average, and weaker teams.

Are the rankings placing too much weight on the Bombers’ poor end to 2023? Possibly. In 2024, they have a slight position average adjusted net margin, which would place them around the middle of the pack for teams – about where they would sit if the Magpies had scored one more point on Anzac Day. They were around average for a fair chunk of 2023, before falling away at the end. That seems about where they are at, and around where the rankings – with some valuable wins already in the bank – have them eventually finishing this year.