AFL Rankings: Round 19 2024

After two straight losses, Carlton had a hard-fought win against North Melbourne on the weekend, keeping them in second on the ladder. Nevertheless, some of the flaws in Carlton’s premiership credentials have become more apparent over the past few weeks.

Carlton has conceded the fifth-most points of any team this season, whereas teams that win the premiership are generally stingy in defence. The Blues can at least score a heap of points themselves, ranking second for points for – Carlton games have so far been on average the biggest ‘shootouts’ this season.

This high leaking of points stems from the Blues having trouble stopping opponents when they get the ball. Carlton has the best contested possession differential of any team this year (see table below). Yet their inside 50 differential is negative, which is highly unusual for a team sitting in second. GWS and the Bulldogs easily beat them in this area in the Blues’ two losses, and even North beat them here on the weekend. They are pretty good at stopping the ball once it gets in their back 50, but overall it means they are in the bottom half of teams in conceding scoring shots per opposition contested possession.

Teams usually do not give up points as easily as Carlton are doing and win the flag. The Blues could end up making up for this by just piling on the points themselves – after all, they just need to score more points than their opponents. It is just going to be harder for them to keep outscoring their opposition if they cannot clamp down on them a bit more.