The Wooden Finger

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

AFL Rankings: Round 2 2025

After a disappointing 2024, the Adelaide Crows have started off 2025 with two massive wins and two massive scores. First, they kicked 21.9 against St. Kilda to win by 63 points, and then on the weekend they amassed 25.11 to beat Essendon by 61 points. It’s an impressive start to say the least, but how sustainable is it?

As those scorelines indicate, the Crows have been unusually accurate to start the season. Based on the quality of their shots at goal, they scored 24 points more than expected against the Saints and 43 points more than expected against the Bombers.

Still, that is an average expected score of about 115 points, which is nothing to be sneezed at. The Crows are giving themselves plenty of opportunities to score, averaging 61 inside 50s, 11 more than their opposition.

What will be interesting to watch is if they can keep this up without being dominant in the clearances or contested possessions. They’ve been OK in those areas so far, with a +3 differential in clearances, and +4 differential in contested possessions across their first two games.

It is in the uncontested game that the Crows have really excelled though. They took 115 uncontested marks against Essendon on the weekend, compared to the Bombers’ 52. This follows up a figure of 92 uncontested marks to 75 against St. Kilda the week before. (The AFL average is 76.) Winning uncontested possessions does not necessarily lead to winning on the scoreboard, but it’s clearly working for the Crows so far this season.

Adelaide were probably better than their win-loss record last year showed, as they won only two (and drew one) out of nine games that were decided by two goals or less. They look to have significantly improved this season. They’re likely not a 20-goal powerhouse each week, but they seem to have the tools to make the finals for the first time under coach Matthew Nicks.

Monday, March 17, 2025

AFL Rankings: Round 1 2025

Three teams that various pundits can make finals this year, or even challenge for the flag, had poor performances on the weekend – Carlton, Fremantle, and Port Adelaide.

Carlton lost to ‘wooden spoon’ favourites Richmond, after being 41 points ahead. Fremantle got well beaten at ‘the Cattery’, losing by 13 goals to Geelong. In Ken Hinkley’s last season as coach, Port Adelaide recorded their worst loss of his tenure, falling by 91 points to Collingwood.

One of those losses isn’t quite as bad as it appears, if you can get past the odds before the game. Carlton were arguably still the ‘better team’ on the night against Richmond (though the young Tigers, with their efforts to get back and ahead, were surely deserved winners), with eight more scoring shots, 21 more contested possessions, and 25 more inside 50s. Even letting the Tigers get so close though was not a great sign.

Even aside from the scoring margins Fremantle and Port Adelaide were more soundly beaten, although against stronger opposition. Fremantle had 12 less inside 50s and 14 less contested possessions than the Cats, while Port had 17 less inside 50s and only two contested marks against the Pies.

These were disappointing results, although it is just ‘one game’. The larger point here however is – why were these teams considered contenders anyway? While it would be foolish to count anyone completely out in March, none of them were among the better performed teams last season, and they actually all fell away as the season went on. Carlton has won only two out of their past ten matches, Fremantle has lost their past five, and Port Adelaide suffered a big loss in the finals at home to Geelong before rallying to a close (though impressive) win the next week.

In the rankings, they are in the middle, about dead on average. Certainly things can change over the course of a season, and they could still be premiership contenders. (They could also get worse.) For now though, they seem a fair way off the pace of the competition’s best teams.*

*Watch now as Carlton beat Hawthorn on Thursday night.