The Wooden Finger

Thursday, October 10, 2024

AFL Rankings: Finals 2024

The Brisbane Lions are the premiers for 2024, and in some ways they had to ‘defy history’ and in other ways not so much. The Lions had to win the flag from fifth, meaning they had to win four games in a row, with two of those involving travelling to play their opponent in their home state. They also had to come back twice from difficult positions in the third quarter, from 44 points down against GWS, and from 25 points down against Geelong. Their 60 point win against Sydney in the Grand Final may have covered over in many people’s minds how close the Lions were to being eliminated in the second week.

To add to that, Brisbane had to face an uphill battle within the season just to make the finals in the first place. They began the season with two wins from their first seven matches, and had just four wins and a draw by their mid-season bye. The Lions then won ten out of their last 12 games to make the finals, but still missed out on a top four spot and the ‘double chance’.

On the other hand, the indicators were there that the Lions were always among the better teams this season, even when they were losing early games. At Round 7 they had a scoring shot differential of +2 per game, and an inside 50 differential of +10, indicating that they were generally doing well across the field other than converting territory to points. By the end of the season, their inside 50 differential had dropped slightly to +9 per game – still good for second in the league – but their scoring shot differential had improved to +6, and their points differential to +19. It wasn’t dominant, but it was good enough to be among the top contenders this year.

The Lions were also a pretty well-rounded side. They ranked first in contested possession differential this season, including second in clearance differential. But they could control possession as well, ranking sixth in uncontested possession differential. Against GWS and Geelong they were slightly behind on contested possessions, but well ahead on possessions overall. Against Sydney they were almost even on contested possessions and inside 50s, but controlled the ball to great effect, with almost 80 more uncontested possessions.

Like Collingwood last year, Brisbane’s premiership wasn’t so much a reward for being clearly the best team as it was for continuing to put yourself among the top contenders to win. They’re currently not a clear favourite to go back-to-back next season, but the probability is high they’ll be up there again, and they may be able to grab their chance at glory a second time.