AFL Rankings: Round 6 2023

Richmond may not have had the same success in 2022 as they had from 2017 to 2020, when they won three premierships, but they were an offensive machine, averaging almost 100 points per game. This year the scoring has not flowed nearly as easily and the Tigers are averaging around four goals less per game. Part of that is due to a drop in accuracy when kicking for goal, and part of it is due to lower inside 50 entries, but a significant part of it is due to less scoring shots per inside 50 (see table below). The Tigers not converting inside 50 dominance into scoring dominance was most notable in their draw against Carlton, and their recent loss to Melbourne.

This drop in ‘offensive efficiency’ can be due to worse delivery inside 50, or a drop in ability of the forwards to score from inside 50, or both. In this case, it is looking like a bit of both. The Tigers’ average turnovers and non-free kick clangers have increased, and they are averaging the most turnovers in the league (see table above). But also, their average marks inside 50 have dropped – though some may blame that mostly on worse delivery.

Much has been made of the lack of results so far from the Tigers’ big off-season recruits in Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper. In 2022, as in season before that, the Tigers benefitted from relatively good inside 50 entries from Dustin Martin, Shai Bolton, and Jayden Short (see table below). The results of the recruits have been mixed. As has been well-noted elsewhere, Taranto’s kicking efficiency has been relatively poor, and even compared with similar midfielders like Dion Prestia and Trent Cotchin last year, his turnovers and (non-free kick) clangers have been high. (The counter-argument on Taranto’s value is that his ball-winning ability is creating more opportunities for the team.) Hopper on the other hand has been pretty good, averaging the most inside 50s for the Tigers, but lower down for clangers and turnovers.

One thing of note among the Tigers’ main midfielders is that the average turnovers of players such as Martin, Bolton, and Marlion Pickett have increased, even though their non-free kick clangers are around the same as last season. That suggests the forwards are also having something to do with the drop in connections.

Richmond highly benefitted last year from great performances up forward by Tom Lynch and Shai Bolton. This season, Lynch has recently missed games through injury, and Bolton has been less of a focal point up forward with the inclusions of Samson Ryan and Noah Cumberland. In the games he has played, Lynch was still fairly good in terms of marks inside 50 and goals per game, but was not quite at the high levels he was last season (see table below). Ryan can’t really replace Lynch, though Jack Riewoldt has done an admirable job. Cumberland though has been less effective up forward after an impressive showing in the latter part of 2022, averaging less marks inside 50, less goals, and way more clangers.

The Tigers haven’t been particularly bad, despite winning only one game, with a relatively tough early fixture. They’ve come back a bit in terms of their top-end talent though, and their drop in performance in the forward line have possibly exposed Taranto’s weaknesses more. What looked like one last tilt at a flag may end up as a year in transition, moving on from the remaining three-time premiership stars to the next group that the Richmond fans hope will take their club forward to more success.

AFL Rankings: Round 5 2023

AFL Rankings: Round 4 2023

Following the 2022 AFL season, St. Kilda somewhat unexpectedly returned to Ross Lyon as their coach, who took them to two Grand Finals (three counting a replay) before leaving the Saints for Fremantle. So far the results have been impressive. Despite missing their captain Jack Steele and two leading goalkickers from 2022 Max King and Tim Membrey the Saints are undefeated from their four matches in 2023, with a percentage of 160.4. Two of those wins came against 2022 finalists Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs.

Lyon is well-known for his defensive mindset to winning games. But even then no-one could have predicted the extent to which the Saints have restricted opponents from scoring in 2023. They have allowed 60 less points than any other team across their four matches, conceding only 57 points per game, more than 20 less points on average than last season (see table below). Remarkably their opponents are still getting about the same number of inside 50 entries (although 50 inside 50s against per game are still relatively low across the league). The Saints however are conceding just 1.13 points per opponent inside 50 – of the 17 other teams only Carlton and Richmond are below 1.5. They are also conceding just 0.4 points per opponent contested possession – nobody else is below 0.49. That is, it is not so much St. Kilda’s ability to win the ball that has got them off to a fast start; it is their ability to contain the other team when they have it.

In their 2009 and 2010 seasons the Saints were also the best or near it for points conceded per opposition inside 50, although at a somewhat higher rate of 1.5-1.6 given higher scoring across the league back then. It is unlikely they can keep restricting opponents quite this much. However, it is definitely conceivable based on what we have seen so far that they could end up the best team over the season for it – time will tell if it brings them another run deep into the finals.

AFL Rankings: Round 3 2023

The first will be last and the last will be first

After three rounds of the 2023 AFL season there is only one winless team, which isn’t much of a surprise. What is a massive surprise though is that team is reigning premiers Geelong, who destroyed almost everything before them over the second half of 2022. Indeed, my rankings still have them as the top-ranked side! – reflecting just how far ahead they were of the competition in the latter part of last season.

The Cats have not been awful over their first three matches, losing by a combined 49 points (16 points per game), but it is a long way below their performances to end the 2022 season, particularly the finals. Following a close win over Collingwood in their first final, the Cats smashed through Brisbane and Sydney with a combined winning margin of 152 points. Geelong were dominant in winning the ball, retaining it, and getting the ball forward, with positive differentials in contested possessions (+23), uncontested possessions (+24), intercepts (+12), and inside 50s (+14). Those have all become negative in 2023 (see table below). Areas that the Cats were slightly behind in such as clearances and one percenters have taken a turn for the worse as well.

In my wrap-up of their 2022 premiership I noted the Cats were deep. Stars such as Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron have still been great to start 2023. Of their top ten rated players from 2022 though (according to the AFL Player Ratings – see table below), Joel Selwood has retired, while forwards Tom Hawkins and last year’s surprise All-Australian Tyson Stengle have so far been significantly less able to win the ball and kick goals. Of their ‘second tier’, some players have been missing like Mitch Duncan, and Jack Henry, while others such as Brad Close have so far significantly regressed. New additions Tanner Bruhn, Oliver Henry, Jack Bowes, and Esava Ratugolea (on the list last year but not a regular) have been – based on their ratings – generally underwhelming.

Geelong are about to come into an easier run of matches, starting with their old foe and current fellow cellar-dweller Hawthorn. The rankings – along with other systems and punters – still heavily favour the Cats to win. They had such a large margin on the rest of the league coming into the season that it is going to take a few more losses (or narrow wins) yet for the rankings to not consider them still one of the best teams in the AFL.