AFL Rankings: Round 7 2024

Hawthorn on the weekend had five more clearances and 18 more contested possessions than their opponents, the Sydney Swans. They had only four more turnovers, and only three less inside 50s. Yet they lost by 76 points.

For the Hawks, it’s been a similar story throughout the season. They have averaged five more contested possessions per game, had about the same amount of possession chains (intercepts + clearances – turnovers) excluding kick-ins, and had similar inside 50s to their opponents so far this season. But they have only one win so far, against bottom team North Melbourne, and have on average scored five goals less than their opposition.

Part of it is their inaccuracy in front of goal, and part of it is their inefficiency in converting forward entries into scores. Hawthorn ranks second-last for points per scoring shot, and last for scoring shots per inside 50 in 2024. They are a lower-ranked, lower-expectation version of the problems that have plagued Brisbane this season.

This could be in part personnel. Of the forwards, Dylan Moore is well-known to be rated highly. But on the AFL Player Ratings the next best forward is Jack Ginnivan at #17, also indicating this is the area of the ground the Hawks are falling short in. On the positive side, if Hawthorn can get this part of their team right, the ‘rebuild’ may look and do somewhat better than many are currently giving credit for.

AFL Rankings: Round 6 2024

With the early byes over, we now have a better picture of where teams sit, at least in as much as all teams have played the same number of games and have the same number of games left.

Let’s look then at each team’s expected wins for 2024, and how that has changed over the first quarter of the season (see table below).

Improvers

Geelong are one of the notable big improvers, going from 13 to 17 expected wins, and from eighth on expected wins to first. The Cats still only sit fifth on the rankings, but they are on top of the current ladder with valuable wins in the bank.

Essendon had a poor end to season 2023, but they have performed much better at the start of 2024, moving from six to 10 expected wins. They are also pretty much killing the rankings’ predictions in the Squiggle leaderboard.

West Coast have dramatically improved over the past two weeks, with large wins over Fremantle and Richmond. They have improved from two to six expected wins, possibly ending their hopes of a priority draft pick but giving much-needed hope to supporters.

Decline

Adelaide, after being almost every ranking system’s ‘team that was unluckiest to miss the finals’ in 2023, have had a horror start to 2024, winning just one match and losing three matches at home. They have dropped from 14 to 10 expected wins, and – showing how even the middle teams are – from fourth on expected wins to 14^th.

Brisbane have also lost three games at home to start the season, albeit against three of the expected top six. They have dropped from 15 to 12 expected wins, going from second on expected wins to eighth.

Hawthorn, Richmond, and North Melbourne have won just two matches between them so far, and each have two less expected wins than they did at the start of the season.

AFL Rankings: Round 5 2024

After five rounds there are two undefeated teams – one which is not surprising in the GWS Giants, and one which is more surprising in Geelong. Are the Cats really a contender, or have they just had an easy fixture so far, or both?

Geelong have had a relatively friendly draw so far, playing no team higher than eleventh on the ladder or tenth on the rankings. Three of those victories were nonetheless quite impressive in terms of ‘raw’ points: a 75-point win against North Melbourne, a 36-point win against Hawthorn, and a 19-point away win against Adelaide.

Part of Geelong’s success though has been better-than-expected accuracy – the Bulldogs had a 12-point higher expected score when they lost to the Cats, Adelaide had a 5-point higher expected score, and Hawthorn were only 5 points less. On expected score, Geelong would have ‘only’ three wins and a percentage of 118, placing them more in the bottom part of the eight.

Those wins are ‘gold’ however for the Cats’ finals chances. In an even competition and with a relatively friendly draw still to come, Geelong is currently expected to finish in the top two. Obviously an unexpected loss or two would change that quite quickly. But for now the Cats do have some ‘wriggle room’ to make a return to the finals this year

AFL Rankings: Round 4 2024

AFL Rankings: Round 3 2024

Many people – including myself – expected the Adelaide Crows to move up the ladder in 2024, after narrowly missing out on the finals in 2023. The Crows finished tenth but had the fourth best percentage, with some dominant wins along with some close losses to top sides such as Collingwood (twice), Melbourne, and Sydney.

However Adelaide have had a disappointing start to the 2024 season, losing their first three matches to Gold Coast, Geelong, and Fremantle. Heavy rain at Carrara aside, the Crows have struggled to score – they have averaged the least scoring shots of any team so far, scoring on only 30 per cent of their inside 50s (league average 43 per cent).

Adelaide’s reduced offensive power has been in part due to a reduced ability to connect. The Crows have averaged only six marks inside 50 per game, and only five contested marks – again, affected by rain at Carrara, but still on average well below their opponents. They have averaged almost five more turnovers per game than any other team, with only bottom sides the Eagles and Kangaroos having higher turnover differentials. Adelaide’s kicking efficiency is the third-lowest in the league (64.6 per cent), which is even more hurtful given they have the fourth-highest kick-to-handball ratio. Captain Jordan Dawson – usually regarded as an excellent kick – has had a kicking efficiency of only 49 per cent so far this year, way down on his mark from last year of 65 per cent.

All that said, in terms of winning the ball and gaining territory the Crows have still been fairly sound. If they can clean up their disposal, they can still be an above average side, but they face a long road back to making the finals – particularly if they lose to Melbourne on Thursday night.