For a team that has just sailed to back-to-back premierships,
the Brisbane Lions were not actually that dominant this season. They were the first team
in VFL/AFL history not to finish in the top 5 in the league for average points
for OR against. (At #6 in both, they do however just slip into Fox Sports’ ‘premiership
window’.)
Part of that was due to their tough fixture. After
adjusting for estimated opponent strength, I have them as #3 on net margin over
their past 22 games, with by far the highest adjustment from their actual net
margin (i.e. hardest fixture). Relative to Geelong – the team they just beat in
the Grand Final – the gap in average net margin shrinks from about three goals
per game to only a couple of points after accounting for their difficulty of
fixture.
Brisbane also got much better as the season went on.
Over their final nine games of the home and away season they had an average net
margin of +16, and an average adjusted net margin of +27, including comfortable
wins against the Cats, Magpies, and Dockers – their big loss to the Suns their
only major blemish in that period. They then lost the Qualifying Final to
Geelong, before going on their best three-week stretch of the season, beating
the Suns, Magpies, and Cats by an average of 43 points.
Brisbane’s success over the past two years has been associated with a greater degree of control of possession. This year they averaged 104 marks per game, ten more than anyone else except Geelong. Last year they averaged over 110 marks per game. Across their three big finals wins they had 88 more marks than their opposition. They couldn’t get the game on their terms earlier in the finals against the Cats, but were able to do so in the return bout.
Are they a likely dynasty? – i.e. will we see more premierships from this group? Their great form in the finals over the past two years is undeniable, but they haven’t been dominant throughout. Still, the Richmond teams of 2017-2020 were similar in that regard, and they were able to get a third flag. But whatever happens now the Chris Fagan era at the Lions has been a roaring success, and any club would happily take their past 25 years.
