AFL Power Rankings: Round 11 2019

Fremantle is the most improved team this season, having once again become a hard team to score against.

Based on each team’s change in ranking points so far in 2019, the Fremantle Dockers are the most improved team this season (see table below). Their ranking points have improved by about four goals, and they have gone from being considered one of the worst teams to around average. Excluding Carlton and Gold Coast – both of whom had hardly anywhere to go but up – no other team has improved by more than seven rankings points this season, not even Brisbane (the big improvers on the ladder).

Fremantle has been better than average this season though. Their current ranking is dragged down by having an average net margin, adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength, of -28 points over the second half of 2018 (see chart below). In the first half of 2019, it is +8 points.

The Dockers’ rise in ranking however has largely been driven by their performances in three of those 11 matches. They are: their opening round smashing of North Melbourne, and their impressive wins away against top teams GWS and Collingwood. Outside of those three matches the Dockers have been slightly below average (which is still a large improvement on last season’s performances)

After generally leaking goals since their 2015 Grand Final appearance Fremantle has once again become a hard team to score against, having conceded the second-least points this season. The Dockers are conceding on average 70 points a game, way down from 93 points a game in 2018.

This is despite none of their defenders being particularly highly rated or ranking particularly highly in any category, apart from Luke Ryan and his ability to intercept. Collectively though, while players such as Alex Pearce barely impact the stats sheet, Fremantle has conceded the least marks inside 50 and the least goal assists.

I still wouldn’t be racing to put money on the Dockers to finish highly (if I raced to put money on anything at all). They are looking a lot closer to it though than I would have thought at the start of the season.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 10 2019

Without Tom Mitchell, Hawthorn appears to be a decent but middle-of-the-pack side.

The Hawks haven't been quite as good this year

Hawthorn – the most successful team of the 2010s – finished fourth on the ladder last year after the home and away season, though there were probably a couple of teams below the Hawks that were better. This year one could have predicted the Hawks to finish anywhere from fourth to twelfth, and probably got a fair amount of agreement either way. Where is Hawthorn actually at?

Hawthorn did finish off last year’s home and away season well, winning ten of their last twelve matches. Even accounting for some weak opposition, the Hawks’ results were pretty good (see chart below). Their finals series was not good though, with Richmond and Melbourne eliminating them fairly comfortably.

This year, the Hawks have been slightly above average, and sit about in the middle of both the ladder and the rankings. They’ve had some impressive wins against Adelaide away, GWS, and Port Adelaide (the latter over this past weekend). They’ve also had some bad losses against the Bulldogs and St. Kilda, and a narrow win against Carlton.

Missing Tom Mitchell

In 2018 Brownlow Medal-winning midfielder Tom Mitchell set a season record for disposals, and also recorded the second-highest ever number of clearances. Unfortunately Mitchell will miss the entire 2019 season with a broken leg. How much are the Hawks missing Mitchell?

Quite a bit. No one player is going to significantly make or break a football side of twenty-two players. Hawthorn is down a bit though in some of the main statistics that rely heavily on midfield performance (see table below). The Hawks rank last this year in clearance differential with their opponents, and are no longer among the top teams for inside 50 differential as they were last year.

Some of Mitchell’s production has been picked up others, in particular Jaegar O’Meara and James Worpel. It’s tough though to completely replace Mitchell’s 35 disposals, eight clearances, and five inside 50s per game, and the increases in output from O’Meara and Worpel compared to last season haven’t done it. Both are doing more, but neither would be considered among the best ‘inside’ midfielders. Ricky Henderson’s improvement – at over 30 years of age – has been more significant, but while he replaces some of Mitchell’s work in terms of gaining possessions and metres, he doesn’t replace Mitchell’s work in contests.

The Hawks may still finish as a top six side, particularly if they play like they did against Port. Or they may still finish twelfth. As impressive as they’ve been at times though, they’re probably not challenging for a premiership until they at least see the return of their star midfielder, and more besides.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 9 2019

AFL Power Rankings: Round 8 2019

Through the first third of the season, the good teams seem to be Geelong, Collingwood, maybe GWS … and not much else.

We are eight rounds – or one-third of the way – into the 2019 season, and each team has played almost half the competition. We should therefore have a fair idea who is playing well this year and who is not.

Nevertheless, some teams have had significantly easier fixtures than others so far (see table below). Therefore, there are a few things about the current ladder where the rankings agree and others where the rankings think the ladder is misleading us a little.

Geelong, who is one win clear on top of the ladder, has been clearly the most impressive team in 2019 to date. Not only do the Cats have the highest average net margin, they have done it with the hardest fixture. Among Geelong’s opponents have been Collingwood, GWS, Essendon, Adelaide, West Coast, and Hawthorn, giving the Cats an eight point disadvantage per game compared to an average fixture. Adjusting for estimated opponent strength (and home ground advantage) gives Geelong an average net margin of +38 per game, which is right up there with many premiership teams.

Collingwood sits second on both the ladder and the rankings. The rankings do not think the Magpies are a great side yet, but at least they’re good, which makes them the Cats’ main challengers almost by default. Their fixture is rated as having been about average so far (although they have struggled to beat their weaker opponents such as Carlton), suggesting that where they currently sit is a reasonable indication of where they are at.

Adelaide and GWS sit third and fourth on the ladder, with the same number of wins and similar percentages. The rankings though think the Giants are the more impressive team, having had the harder fixture. GWS has played Geelong and West Coast away, Richmond, Essendon, and Hawthorn. Adelaide has played Geelong and Hawthorn, but otherwise Port Adelaide has probably been its only decent opponent.

There are ten sides that have between three and five wins, and which the rankings think have performed fairly similarly. Their average adjusted net margins in 2019 have been between about plus one goal and minus one goal per match. Essendon is considered to have had a relatively tough fixture so far, having played the top three ranked sides, and therefore it may potentially be better than their ladder position suggests (though the Bombers’ loss on the weekend to Sydney was hardly impressive). The Western Bulldogs, in contrast, have had a relatively easy fixture, having played (and lost to) both Gold Coast and Carlton.   

Finally, there are five teams that the ladder and the rankings both rate as having by far the worst seasons. These are: Gold Coast, Melbourne, Sydney, North Melbourne, and Carlton. All of these teams have a percentage of 85 or under; no other team has a percentage of less than 93. The rankings still rate Melbourne, Sydney, and North Melbourne as not too bad overall, because of their 2018 performances. On 2019 form alone though they are a long way back from the rest of the pack.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 7 2019

Adelaide or Port Adelaide – who is the better South Australian team heading into next round’s Showdown?

Both are rated just above average

Both Adelaide and Port Adelaide are around the middle of the rankings, and rated slightly above average. Adelaide currently has a few more ranking points – 7.2 points compared to 3.9 points.

Both have performed slightly above average so far in 2019. Adelaide’s average net margin adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength is +4 (see chart below). Port Adelaide’s is a bit higher, at +8, boosted by its big win against reigning premiers West Coast in Perth.

Both have been among the most consistently ‘average’ teams over their past 22 matches. Port has had only five matches out of their past 22 where its adjusted net margin is either greater than 25 points or less than -25 points – the least of any side (see chart below). Adelaide has had the second least, with seven matches in those categories.

Adelaide: not yet back to 2017 levels

Adelaide was the best team for most of 2017, and very good in 2016 as well, but injuries hit the Crows hard last season. With more of their top players available they were a semi-popular pick to shoot back up the ladder this year.

The Crows are fairly well-placed so far in 2019, with four wins and three losses. They have been somewhat helped by a friendly fixture though, beating Sydney, St. Kilda, Fremantle, and Gold Coast. They lost at home to Hawthorn, and to a North Melbourne team that has dropped in standing.

Champion Data rated Adelaide’s list highly coming into the season: rating it second overall, and strong in attack, the midfield, and defence. That rating could be seen as a hangover from the 2017 season, with forwards Taylor Walker and Eddie Betts arguably past their peak. Injuries have also hit the Crows again – though nowhere near the extent of last season – with the team losing wing Paul Seedsman, and defender Tom Doedee.

Adelaide seems to have most of its midfield back and firing, but not quite to the same effect as the peak days of 2016-17. That 2017 team ranked highly in terms of contested possessions, clearances, and inside 50s. This year’s team ranks highly in disposals, but not in those other statistics. Instead, it’s the Crows’ cross-town rivals that seem to so far have taken their place among the top midfields.  

Port Adelaide: the resurgence of Travis Boak

At the end of Round 7, Port Adelaide leads the league in contested possessions, clearances, and inside 50s, and is third in disposals. Ex-captain and two-time All-Australian Travis Boak has returned to the midfield, and is in probably the best form of his career. Boak ranks sixth for contested possessions per game in 2019, ninth in clearances, tenth in inside 50s, and fifth in disposals. Boak’s resurgence, and that of Tom Rockliff, has helped the Power more than overcome the loss of Chad Wingard and Jared Polec to other clubs.

Not that the Power have significantly set the world on fire yet either, despite their four wins. As mentioned above, their best win for the season was easily beating West Coast in Perth. They also easily beat last year’s preliminary finalists Melbourne, but it’s not as impressive beating the Demons in 2019. Port beat Carlton and North Melbourne at home by relatively small margins, and lost to a depleted Richmond. 

Port’s defence – which was one of the stingiest in 2018 – has been merely average so far this season. Dougal Howard has performed well, but Tom Jonas had probably a career-best season last year, and he has dropped off a bit (and been injured).

The Power also haven’t been able to score efficiently from their weight of inside 50s, with Charlie Dixon out, Justin Westhoff not upping his points total as a more permanent forward, and star Robbie Gray having possibly his worst season to date in terms of effectively disposing of the ball. On the bright side, Robbie’s namesake Sam Gray has found some form. (Port’s also been a goldmine for fantasy football teams, with first-year players Zak Butters, Willem Drew, Xavier Duursma, Connor Rozee being permanent fixtures in the line-up. I had them all.)      

Who has the better outlook this year?

Other systems, on average, seem to think Port’s outlook is slightly better, and rate them slightly higher – see, for example, Matter of Stats and The Arc. That could be because other systems adjust to the new season a little quicker than mine, and/or because Port’s scoring shot differential is better.

I like Adelaide’s a little better, even before Port recently got hit by injuries. I think they’re a bit deeper, and have been a bit more consistent in their performances.

The rankings are tipping Adelaide by 3 points. Hopefully this week’s game is at great as the two Showdowns last year.

My Ranking Of The 22 Marvel Cinematic Universe Movies Up To 'Avengers: Endgame'

Still Finding Their Feet

22. The Incredible Hulk
21. Iron Man 2

Of Lesser Consequence

20. Ant-Man
19. Thor
18. Captain America: The First Avenger
17. Thor: The Dark World
16. Avengers: Age Of Ultron

Solid Entertainment

15. Ant-Man And The Wasp
14. Captain Marvel
13. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2

The Movies That Made Mine Marvel

12. Iron Man
11. Spider-Man: Homecoming
10. Guardians Of The Galaxy
9. Iron Man 3
8. Doctor Strange
7. Avengers
6. Black Panther
5. Thor: Ragnarok

The Russo Brothers

4. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
3. Avengers: Endgame
2. Captain America: Civil War
1. Avengers: Infinity War

AFL Power Rankings: Round 6 2019

After being the big improver in 2018, Melbourne’s form has dropped the most of any AFL team this season. Last year’s highest-scoring team is now having trouble putting points on the board.

Melbourne is the team that has fallen the most

In 2018, Melbourne was the most improved team according to these rankings, zooming all the way to the top of the rankings, and more importantly making a preliminary final. The Demons gained about four goals worth of ranking points last season. In just six rounds this season they have lost almost all of those gains.

So far in 2019, Melbourne’s average net margin adjusted for estimated opponent strength and home ground advantage is -23 points (see chart above). That is not just regressing to 2017 levels for the Demons; that is around their 2015 levels of performance, when they won just seven games.

Where has it gone wrong?

Champion Data ranked Melbourne’s playing list as the best going into this season. Over the first six rounds of 2019, Melbourne ranks second-last for points scored, and have allowed the most points. In 2018 the Demons were the highest scorers per game, and were about middle of the pack for points allowed. However, they still rank eighth in inside 50 differential – even after Richmond thrashed them in that aspect in their ANZAC match – indicating that their problems may lie more on their forward and back lines than the midfield.

Up forward

Last year Tom McDonald turned from one of the best big defenders in the competition to one of the best big forwards. McDonald averaged almost three goals, three marks inside 50, and two contested marks per game. This year he is averaging around one or less per game in all of those categories. In Round 6 McDonald was moved back to defence. With Jesse Hogan having departed for Fremantle, the Demons have effectively lost their two main big forwards from last season.

Sam Weideman averages only a goal per game. Smaller forwards Alex Neal-Bullen and Charlie Spargo have kicked just two goals between them from seven combined matches. Only Jake Melksham seems to have carried over his 2018 form on the forward line, with nine goals and 11 goal assists this season, easily leading the Demons in both categories.

Down back

Down back the Demons have lost two big defenders to injury, with 2018 recruit Jake Lever still sidelined from last season’s knee injury, and 2019 recruit Steven May having played only one game. The high rating of Melbourne’s defence coming into this season then is probably more about what they could be rather than what they have been.

Some of those on the field though have dropped their output too. 2017 All-Australian Michael Hibberd is averaging only 15 disposals and three rebound 50s per game, way down on the 28 disposals and seven rebound 50s per game he averaged in 2017 (not that his 2018 matched that output either). Oscar McDonald is averaging only seven disposals per game (down from 12 last year). Like Melksham in the forward line, Christian Salem and first-year player Marty Hore have been the main sparks of hope in defence, averaging about 45 disposals and a dozen rebound 50s per game between them.

Putting Tom McDonald down back against Richmond seemed to help him regain some form and stop the Tigers’ weight of inside 50 entries from being even more damaging. McDonald recorded a massive 19 one percenters and ten rebound 50s. It seems he would be shifted back once Lever and May return though, and while it does last it comes at the expense of making the forward line even barer for options.   

The midfield too

Some of the blame for Melbourne’s drop should go to the midfield as well, even though they are still performing at a relatively high level. Melbourne ranks first for clangers and turnovers in 2019 – they ranked third for clangers per game in 2018, but they also had many more disposals. Clayton Oliver, one of the league’s best midfielders last year, has averaged a horrid six clangers per match, up from four per game in 2018. Several of Melbourne’s midfielders, and forward-midfielders, are each averaging an extra turnover per game.

Melbourne is still doing reasonably well in the clearances, but they might be able to do with the boost Jack Viney gave them when he played ‘inside’ last year. Viney averaged over seven clearances per game in his ten matches for 2018, and has averaged half that number in 2019. Oliver, Angus Brayshaw, and James Harmes have been generally fine at winning the ball, and Max Gawn is still possibly the best ruckman for hit outs in the game. The midfield is not the biggest of Melbourne’s concerns, but it is no longer strong enough to cover over the cracks elsewhere.

But really … where has it all gone wrong?

I don’t know. Melbourne was my pre-season premiership pick. I was in broad agreement when Champion Data rated their list as the best in the league. It may still be. I don’t know why so many of their players have dropped in form though.

I’ve seen some people draw comparisons to Richmond’s 2016 season, when the Tigers fell badly from their finals appearance the previous year before recovering the next year to win the premiership. Melbourne is playing just about as ‘badly’ as Richmond did in 2016. Maybe it’ll improve when Lever and May return. Or maybe it’ll take just as drastic a re-invention as the Tigers underwent to take the Demons back towards the top again.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 5 2019

Collingwood and Essendon may be set up for their most intriguing ANZAC Day match this decade.

The ANZAC Day match between Collingwood and Essendon is always a ‘blockbuster’ in terms of occasion. This year though it could be called one based on the teams’ form as well. Collingwood and Essendon are both currently quite good. It is the first time this decade that both teams have over 15 ranking points heading into the ANZAC Day match (see chart below).

Since the rankings began in 2011, the only time they have both come close to this mark is in 2013. That year Collingwood finished sixth after the home and away season, and Essendon would have finished seventh if they had not been disqualified from the finals due to their supplements program. The ANZAC Day match itself though was a fizzer, with the Bombers winning easily.

There is one other year where one could argue the teams were about as strong as 2013. Probably the best ANZAC Day match this decade was Collingwood’s one-point win in Essendon’s ill-fated 2012 season. The Magpies were coming off a Grand Final appearance in 2011. The Bombers were not highly rated by the rankings going into that match due to some thrashings in the back end of 2011. However they had still made the finals that year, and had started off well in 2012.

In all other years this decade heading into the ANZAC Day match, at least one of Collingwood or Essendon (usually the Bombers) have been ranked below average. After five rounds of the 2019 season though, Collingwood and Essendon both sit at three wins and two losses. This comes after both teams had pretty good finishes to 2018 (see charts below).

Looking over their past 22 matches, the Magpies have actually had a somewhat unusual pattern of performances, in that they seem to have a really strong performance every few weeks to stoke the premiership ‘hype’. Their six very good wins in that time have been against Melbourne, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond twice, and then Brisbane this week. Aside from those games, the Magpies have been merely slightly above average, although they have also had no real poor performances in that period outside of those against their nemesis West Coast.

The Bombers have not been quite as good over that time, and have also had some poor patches which contributed to them missing the finals in 2018 despite their strong finish. Their nadir last year was arguably their Round 8 loss to bottom-placed Carlton, in a match where they had seven more scoring shots, although they got thumped by Richmond in the Dreamtime match a few weeks later. Essendon’s ‘bad’ early season form and subsequent turnaround gave them the look of inconsistency, but as the season went on the turnaround became more sustained. Then this year they started off badly with losses to GWS and St. Kilda, but have since strung together three decent wins.

Essendon could be seen as sort of your typical ‘above-average’ side, in that they are average to good in most aspects, without being particularly great in any of them. Even their three best midfielders – Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell, and Dylan Shiel – kind of fit the ‘above average but not elite’ mould, having earned one All-Australian selection each. Still, while that may seem like modest praise, it’s probably better than most of what Bomber fans have experienced over the past five years.

The Magpies meanwhile have possibly the most-heralded midfield in the competition, although only Scott Pendlebury is a multiple All-Australian. They were strong last year in disposals, hit outs, clearances, inside 50s, and tackles – though so far they are not ranked highly in those last three categories this season.

Actually, while this shapes as the strongest ANZAC Day matchup in years, both Collingwood and Essendon may not be that much better than they were in 2013, when they finished in the bottom half of the eight. That they are nevertheless currently both ‘top five’ sides on these rankings may indicate how even the competition is this year.