AFL Power Rankings: Round 15 2018

Essendon may not have been the most inconsistent side in 2018, but they have definitely tended to have their best performances against the better teams. 

It does feel like Essendon has been the most – or at least one of the most – inconsistent sides in the AFL this season, doesn’t it? They shocked West Coast in Perth and GWS in Sydney, and they have also beaten Geelong, Port Adelaide and most recently North Melbourne. However they have also provided bottom side Carlton with their only win of the season, and lost to the Western Bulldogs and Fremantle. But have the Bombers actually been the most inconsistent side of 2018?

Maybe not. If we take the standard deviation of Essendon’s net margins in 2018, adjusted for home ground advantage and opponent strength, then the Bombers have only the fourth largest variation in their performances (see chart below). Melbourne, Carlton, and Adelaide are the three teams that have a slightly larger variation in their adjusted net margins.

A particular feature about Essendon’s inconsistency though is that they’ve done well against the top teams, and badly against the lower teams. Melbourne’s inconsistency is a result of them bashing up on the lower sides, but struggling against the higher ones. Adelaide’s inconsistency may well be largely a result of injuries. Of the three most inconsistent sides Carlton’s performances are the most similar to Essendon’s, in that they did OK against top sides such as Richmond, Sydney, and West Coast, but lost at home to Gold Coast and Fremantle. But Carlton still lost the matches they did relatively well in, as they aren’t yet good enough to win the games where they play relatively well against the good sides.

Essendon can, and six of their seven wins have come against teams that are above average or at least average (see chart below). In contrast, three of their losses have come against relatively bad sides, although their loss against Carlton may have had a fair deal to do with their inaccuracy in kicking for goals. The stark difference in the Bombers’ performances against the good and bad sides is probably where our feeling of their inconsistency comes from.

Next week I think I’ll write about the Age’s Jake Niall’s claim that Richmond are farther ahead of the second-best team than any side has been in the past decade. My ranking points above indicate a big gap between the Tigers and everyone else. Like Niall though I’ll argue that has as much to do with Richmond lacking a strong rival as the Tigers being a very good side, and also like Niall that being a very good side doesn’t guarantee a premiership.