AFL Rankings: Round 5 2023

AFL Rankings: Round 4 2023

Following the 2022 AFL season, St. Kilda somewhat unexpectedly returned to Ross Lyon as their coach, who took them to two Grand Finals (three counting a replay) before leaving the Saints for Fremantle. So far the results have been impressive. Despite missing their captain Jack Steele and two leading goalkickers from 2022 Max King and Tim Membrey the Saints are undefeated from their four matches in 2023, with a percentage of 160.4. Two of those wins came against 2022 finalists Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs.

Lyon is well-known for his defensive mindset to winning games. But even then no-one could have predicted the extent to which the Saints have restricted opponents from scoring in 2023. They have allowed 60 less points than any other team across their four matches, conceding only 57 points per game, more than 20 less points on average than last season (see table below). Remarkably their opponents are still getting about the same number of inside 50 entries (although 50 inside 50s against per game are still relatively low across the league). The Saints however are conceding just 1.13 points per opponent inside 50 – of the 17 other teams only Carlton and Richmond are below 1.5. They are also conceding just 0.4 points per opponent contested possession – nobody else is below 0.49. That is, it is not so much St. Kilda’s ability to win the ball that has got them off to a fast start; it is their ability to contain the other team when they have it.

In their 2009 and 2010 seasons the Saints were also the best or near it for points conceded per opposition inside 50, although at a somewhat higher rate of 1.5-1.6 given higher scoring across the league back then. It is unlikely they can keep restricting opponents quite this much. However, it is definitely conceivable based on what we have seen so far that they could end up the best team over the season for it – time will tell if it brings them another run deep into the finals.

AFL Rankings: Round 3 2023

The first will be last and the last will be first

After three rounds of the 2023 AFL season there is only one winless team, which isn’t much of a surprise. What is a massive surprise though is that team is reigning premiers Geelong, who destroyed almost everything before them over the second half of 2022. Indeed, my rankings still have them as the top-ranked side! – reflecting just how far ahead they were of the competition in the latter part of last season.

The Cats have not been awful over their first three matches, losing by a combined 49 points (16 points per game), but it is a long way below their performances to end the 2022 season, particularly the finals. Following a close win over Collingwood in their first final, the Cats smashed through Brisbane and Sydney with a combined winning margin of 152 points. Geelong were dominant in winning the ball, retaining it, and getting the ball forward, with positive differentials in contested possessions (+23), uncontested possessions (+24), intercepts (+12), and inside 50s (+14). Those have all become negative in 2023 (see table below). Areas that the Cats were slightly behind in such as clearances and one percenters have taken a turn for the worse as well.

In my wrap-up of their 2022 premiership I noted the Cats were deep. Stars such as Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron have still been great to start 2023. Of their top ten rated players from 2022 though (according to the AFL Player Ratings – see table below), Joel Selwood has retired, while forwards Tom Hawkins and last year’s surprise All-Australian Tyson Stengle have so far been significantly less able to win the ball and kick goals. Of their ‘second tier’, some players have been missing like Mitch Duncan, and Jack Henry, while others such as Brad Close have so far significantly regressed. New additions Tanner Bruhn, Oliver Henry, Jack Bowes, and Esava Ratugolea (on the list last year but not a regular) have been – based on their ratings – generally underwhelming.

Geelong are about to come into an easier run of matches, starting with their old foe and current fellow cellar-dweller Hawthorn. The rankings – along with other systems and punters – still heavily favour the Cats to win. They had such a large margin on the rest of the league coming into the season that it is going to take a few more losses (or narrow wins) yet for the rankings to not consider them still one of the best teams in the AFL.

AFL Rankings: Round 2 2023

In winning only two games last year North Melbourne were significantly behind their opponents in a lot of areas, but one of them was their ability to win the contested ball. The Kangaroos averaged nine contested possessions less per game than their opposition last year, ranking them equal third-last in the AFL (see table below).

After two rounds this year under new coach Alastair Clarkson the Roos have won two games already, albeit narrowly. So far their average contested possession differential has hugely improved, shooting up to almost 20 per game, ranking them second (see table below). This has to a large degree been driven by an improvement in winning clearances, with an average differential so far of 15 per game, easily first in the league. The monster in the middle for North has been Luke Davies-Uniacke who is averaging over 10 clearances per game, about double what he averaged last season.

Winning the contested ball can not only turn you from a relatively poor team to a good team, but also from a good team to a great team. Collingwood had a similar contested possession differential to North Melbourne last year, and a worse clearance differential, ranking near the bottom of the league for both (see table above). Despite this they came within a couple of points of making the Grand Final.

Over the first two weeks this year however they have killed it in these categories, averaging a whopping 31 more contested possessions than their opponents and almost ten more clearances. Former Brownlow Medal winner Tom Mitchell has helped the Magpies’ clearance work with his arrival, averaging nine clearances per game. Many of the main Pies have increased their contested possessions per game so far this season, most notably Darcy Cameron, who has gone from eight to 12 contested possessions per game.

At the other end, probably part of why reigning premiers Geelong are winless so far this season is their losing the contested possession battle, with a deficit of over ten per game compared with a surplus of seven per game in 2022. Fellow winless finalists the Bulldogs have also seen a large drop in their contested possession differential, mainly from not yet holding up their amazing clearance differential from last season. More specifically Jack Macrae has spent less time in the middle, and has dropped from six to three clearances per game, with his replacements not winning the stoppages with the same success.

Winning contested possessions is of course not everything, but it does go a fair way to helping get the win. If the Kangaroos and Magpies continue to rank near the top of the league throughout the season in this category rather than the bottom, they can reasonably expect their overall performances to markedly improve compared with last season.

AFL Rankings: Round 1 2023

Did Collingwood just prove the analysts wrong?

One of the main stories of the 2022 season was Collingwood’s extraordinarily successful record in close games. They won eleven matches by less than 12 points, and only lost three by that margin – and all of those were against the other three preliminary finalists.

Many football fans and commentators praised Collingwood’s ability to keep winning close games. Many analysts did not deny it was a great effort, but argued that it probably had more to do with a stretch of good luck than ability, as teams are not generally able to do better than win 50 per cent of close games over the long haul. The Magpies were therefore tipped by some of the more analytical pundits to likely drop in 2023 – assuming they generally played to a similar level than 2022 – because it is unlikely their fantastic record in close games could be replicated.

And then Collingwood has come out in the first round and beaten the reigning premiers Geelong by 22 points, with seven more scoring shots and 16 more inside 50s. Did the analysts underrate Collingwood? Possibly, but that doesn’t necessarily prove Collingwood weren’t unusually ‘lucky’ last year. Maybe the Magpies are better this year? Maybe the Cats are worse? Maybe Collingwood just had a better than usual night? We probably won’t have a clearer picture until a few weeks into the new season.

One pleasing aspect for Collingwood though is that they actually got more of the ball on the weekend than their opponents, both for contested possessions (+5) and by a considerable margin uncontested possessions (+63). They trailed their opponents on average in these areas last year, and were well beaten against Geelong on contested possessions (-21) in their final last year. Again it is too soon into the new season to tell whether the Magpies will sustain that, but it is a possible early indicator that they may be a little better this year.

Did Port Adelaide just prove the analysts right?

At the other end of the ‘luck’ spectrum for analysts in 2022 was Port Adelaide, who won only two out of nine games decided by less than 12 points, and missed the finals. They are therefore a common tip among the statistically-minded to improve in 2023.

Those who liked Port’s prospects to improve their win tally in 2023 could hardly have felt more validated – as much as it is possible to be validated by one result – when the Power smashed through preliminary finalists the Brisbane Lions on the weekend. Port were rampant in the second half of that match, and finished with the highest differentials in scoring shots (+19), inside 50s (+25), and uncontested possessions (+127) for the round – along with the second highest contested possession differential (+34). It was a dominant performance.

Again, we want to pump the brakes a little on drawing too much from one game, but this performance does lend further support to the expectation that Port Adelaide were a bit better than their win-loss record indicated last year. The rankings currently have them fourth, and just a touch behind second, so I’m certainly high on their prospects. Also on this basis, I am predicting a close game for them against the Magpies at the MCG on the weekend. However, if Port Adelaide got up in a close game that the majority of football ‘boffins’ expect them to narrowly lose, would we say that supported their views on the Power and Magpies or went against them…?

AFL WOMEN'S Rankings: Round 10 SEASON 7

 

Uneven fixtures and short season aside, few would argue against the eight best teams having made the AFLW Finals this season, with the eighth-placed team being one and a half wins and a sizable amount of percentage ahead of ninth. More arguable is whether that uneven fixture has meant they have finished in the ‘right’ order’. Specifically, North Melbourne in eighth spot is probably the fourth best team, but finished lower down through a combination of some inaccurate kicking in front of goal and a tougher fixture than the four teams that finished directly above them. (Personally, as a Tigers’ supporter in a season where Richmond has ‘snuck’ into fourth, I’m quite happy with this turn of events.)

As a result, my main prediction for the finals is that North Melbourne will beat both Geelong this week and Richmond in the semi-finals to make it to the preliminary final stage. Aside from that I am picking the higher-placed home sides. I have Brisbane, Melbourne, and Collingwood winning this week, and then Brisbane and Melbourne winning through to the Grand Final. With the Lions’ home ground advantage if they can win through to the last match I am picking them to narrowly win their second premiership.

The Lions and Demons are almost inseparable though, as evident in Brisbane finishing just 0.3 percentage points ahead of Melbourne to claim top spot on the ladder. Adelaide looks a step below those two teams, but they of course have the track record of three premierships in six years. As said above North Melbourne also looks strong, but winning four straight matches to win the flag will be a tough ask.

Still it will be an exciting time for the other teams, particularly big improvers Richmond and Geelong who have had no or little finals experience to date. They have surprised so far this season, so who is to say they could not surprise for another week or two?

AFL WOMEN'S Rankings: Round 9 SEASON 7

After the first round this season I noted that the proportion of possessions that were contested had increased, supporting a suggestion that moving the AFLW season to the winter months might result in a more contested style of play. 

That early trend held up throughout the season. Teams have averaged slightly more contested possessions per match this season compared with last season (101.4 to 99.6 in Season 6), but over ten less uncontested possessions (102.7 to 113.0). Average tackles have also gone up (63.4 compared with 58.6 in Season 6), as have average hit outs (26.6 to 23.0).

Part of this has been due to the introduction of ‘expansion’ teams Hawthorn and Sydney who have each averaged less than 80 uncontested possessions per game (see table below). However, several established teams have also played a more contested style of football this season. Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, North Melbourne, and St. Kilda are all averaging far less uncontested possessions this season, ranging from 10 less per game for the Crows to 36 less for the Blues. They are also averaging more than seven tackles and hit outs more per game this season (see table below).

There are a few teams going against the trend though. Melbourne, GWS, and Geelong are averaging a lot more uncontested possessions per game this season (see table above), and other teams like the Bulldogs are averaging similar figures. Most teams though have still seen an increase in average tackles and hit outs this season, which indicates more stoppages.

Have more contests, tackling and stoppages led to less scoring though? Only slightly – average points per game has decreased from 33.9 in Season 6 to 32.2 in Season 7. More points is not necessarily better, but at least this suggests that teams are still finding avenues to scoring at about the same rate as before even if the matches have become slightly more of a ‘slog’ this season.

AFL WOMEN'S Rankings: Round 8 SEASON 7

The Magpies and Cats become more defensive

Collingwood will make the finals again this season, and Geelong will almost certainly make it in what has been its best AFLW season to date. A notable point with both teams this season is how few points they have allowed.

Collingwood has allowed only 132 points at 16.5 points per game, and Geelong has had 165 points scored against them at 20.6 points per game (see table below). Both teams have averaged around six scoring shots against per game. Collingwood has had more than 21 points scored against them only once this season. (Alas for Fremantle, they were the prime example of both teams’ stinginess, scoring only one point against Geelong and three points against Collingwood.) 

To some extent this low scoring has come from these teams’ abilities to limit inside 50 entries, with Collingwood ranking second and Geelong close to third on inside 50 entries against. However, of more note has been their ability to limit scoring once the ball is in the opposition 50, with Collingwood allowing only 0.71 points per inside 50 against and Geelong 0.83 points (see table above), compared with the league average of 1.11 points per inside 50.

Geelong was actually relatively stingy last season as well, at least for a ‘bottom half’ club. They averaged about 31 points against, which was over a goal less than any other team that lost more games than they won. This season however they have got even better at limiting points per opposition inside 50 – and of course they are scoring more themselves.

Can the ‘great walls’ of Collingwood and Geelong hold up once they face the best sides in the finals? Geelong conceded 28 points to North Melbourne, while Collingwood conceded only 21 points – though eleven scoring shots – to the Adelaide Crows earlier this season. Noting the small amount of evidence from this, it suggests they may be able to restrict the top sides to a fair extent – although they in turn will probably find their scoring more restricted.