In this week’s AFL Power Rankings, I pointed out that the ranking system rated North Melbourne as the 3rd most improved team so far in 2013, despite the Kangaroos going backwards on the actual AFL ladder. Below is a summary of North Melbourne’s performance in every game so far in 2013, ordered from best performance to worst. Performances are rated by North Melbourne’s relative adjusted net margin for the game, which is North’s net margin, adjusted for home ground advantage and the relative strength of the opposition. (For example, North’s win on the weekend against Melbourne gets deflated by 51 points, while their win against Richmond gets inflated by 16 points.) I have also included the ranking points the Kangas get for each game as of Round 18, with more recent games getting a higher weighting. (For example, North’s win against Melbourne, though it was of slightly lesser quality in relative terms than the win against Richmond, currently gives them more ranking points because it was more recent.)
Relative net margin
|
Ranking points
|
Result
|
|
Rich
|
78
|
5.87
|
W
|
Melb
|
71
|
6.18
|
W
|
StK
|
59
|
3.48
|
W
|
Bris (1)
|
37
|
1.32
|
W
|
WB
|
25
|
1.19
|
W
|
Haw
|
25
|
0.98
|
L
|
Geel
|
22
|
0.62
|
L
|
WC
|
20
|
1.03
|
L
|
GWS
|
14
|
1.01
|
W
|
Carl
|
12
|
0.95
|
L
|
PA
|
2
|
0.09
|
W
|
Adel
|
-7
|
-0.37
|
L
|
Fre
|
-7
|
-0.49
|
L
|
Coll
|
-11
|
-0.26
|
L
|
Syd
|
-14
|
-0.43
|
L
|
Bris (2)
|
-14
|
-1.09
|
L
|
GC
|
-19
|
-1.21
|
L
|
Total ranking points
|
18.86
|
||
Average relative net margin
|
17
|
||
As I said on the weekend, the Kangaroos have got most of
their points from three games, which are their wins against Richmond, Melbourne
and St. Kilda. All their other performances gain them only a few more ranking
points. (They still have a small penalty from their last five games of 2012.) But
note that their very good performances have not been balanced out by some very
bad ones. (North was also assessed to have the hardest draw in 2013, but
relative net margin adjusts for that, and in any case they have only played
Brisbane twice at this point.) Now compare this with North’s ranking points at
the end of 2012. (Net margins are adjusted by how strong the teams were in
2012, and North’s first game against Essendon drops out of the final ranking
for 2012, with their final against West Coast included.)
Relative net margin
|
Ranking points
|
Result
|
|
GWS (1)
|
63
|
0.25
|
W
|
Carl
|
61
|
3.37
|
W
|
StK
|
54
|
2.58
|
W
|
Coll
|
44
|
3.31
|
W
|
Adel
|
43
|
1.89
|
W
|
Geel
|
29
|
0.23
|
W
|
Ess
|
25
|
1.77
|
W
|
WB (2)
|
20
|
1.35
|
W
|
Melb
|
19
|
1.21
|
W
|
Rich
|
16
|
0.93
|
W
|
WC (2)
|
14
|
0.72
|
L
|
WC (1)
|
3
|
0.06
|
L
|
Syd
|
-1
|
-0.01
|
L
|
Bris
|
-5
|
-0.14
|
W
|
PA
|
-11
|
-0.31
|
L
|
GC (1)
|
-24
|
-0.38
|
W
|
GWS (2)
|
-26
|
-2.13
|
W
|
GC (2)
|
-27
|
-1.06
|
W
|
Fre
|
-51
|
-4.05
|
L
|
WB (1)
|
-52
|
-1.23
|
L
|
WC (F)
|
-68
|
-5.92
|
L
|
Haw
|
-77
|
-2.74
|
L
|
Total ranking points
|
-0.31
|
||
Average relative net margin
|
2
|
||
North still had some very good performances in 2012. But
they also had some terrible performances, including the ‘Buddy Game’ in Hobart,
their thrashing in the finals against the Eagles, a thrashing by the Dockers in
Melbourne, and a loss against the Bulldogs (which wasn’t by much, but it’s bad
because it was against ‘weak’ opposition). Indeed, their seven worst
performances in 2012 were worse than their worst performance so far in 2013.
Thus, North’s improvement according to the ranking system is
because they have eliminated their bad losses and other weak performances.
Alas, for Kangaroos supporters, because of several close losses, this hasn’t
translated to an improvement on the ladder.
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