AFL Rankings: Round 9 2024

Essendon are ‘defying’ the rankings so far this season, currently sitting third on the AFL ladder – albeit a draw away from seventh – while still being only ranked fourteenth. Why the large discrepancy?

First, Essendon have a very low percentage for a third-placed team. Three of their wins were by a goal or less, and their two losses were by almost 100 points combined.

Second, Essendon had a terrible end to 2023. They lost three matches by 70 points or more, and they beat West Coast and North Melbourne by a combined 10 points. Their average net margin adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength was -45 points over their last seven games (see chart below). That is still one-third of the games included in the Bombers’ current ranking.

Not having much of an effect is the fixture. Essendon do have a couple of easy games coming up, but so far in 2024 they have played a mix of strong, average, and weaker teams.

Are the rankings placing too much weight on the Bombers’ poor end to 2023? Possibly. In 2024, they have a slight position average adjusted net margin, which would place them around the middle of the pack for teams – about where they would sit if the Magpies had scored one more point on Anzac Day. They were around average for a fair chunk of 2023, before falling away at the end. That seems about where they are at, and around where the rankings – with some valuable wins already in the bank – have them eventually finishing this year.

 

AFL Rankings: Round 8 2024

Richmond are last for free kick differential (free kicks for less free kicks against) so far in 2024. They were second-last (per game) in 2023. They were last in 2021 and 2022, second last in 2020, and last in 2017 and 2018. How does it keep happening?

One theory was the game style that the Tigers played under coach Damien Hardwick, or at least the style they played during their golden era from 2017. However, Hardwick left as coach part way through last year. His new team the Gold Coast Suns are third for free kick differential. And under new coach Adem Yze Richmond are not a high-pressure team, ranking last for tackles and low for pressure acts. Perhaps it’s more to do with the players?

Richmond are losing the free kick count in most areas of the ground (see table below), although the two areas where they are most significantly doing so are for Midfielders and Key Defenders. For Midfielders, it’s their wings Kamdyn McIntosh and Marlion Pickett that have the largest negative differentials. For Key Defenders, it’s Dylan Grimes – who has had an even free kick differential for most of his career – and inexperienced talls Ben Miller and Tylar Young. Ruck Toby Nankervis also continues to be a main ‘offender’. But Nank aside (and Grimes, but he’s only a recent ‘offender’), that’s hardly the ‘spine’ of the modern Richmond era. Shai Bolton used to have a heavy negative differential too that contributed to past results, but has improved over the past two years.

So the negative Richmond free kick differential has persisted through changes in coach and players. Maybe the Tigers just keep finding ‘undisciplined’ players? Maybe it’s a game style that has persisted after Hardwick? Or – as much as this blog tries to find evidence that isn’t ‘conspiratorial’ … maybe this trend has reached a point to conclude that Richmond could be umpired a bit differently?

All that said, the free kick differential probably isn’t hurting Richmond a huge amount (other than supporters’ mental health), just as it did not stop them from winning premierships in 2017, 2019 and 2020. A contested possession is estimated by Champion Data to be worth about a point, so on that basis the Tigers’ free kick differential is costing them perhaps about a goal per game in points differential, although possibly a bit more if their defenders are more often getting pinned. That might cost them a win or two in a year where they are lacking them – although the ‘silver lining’ is it might also give them a higher draft pick…

 

AFL Rankings: Round 7 2024

Hawthorn on the weekend had five more clearances and 18 more contested possessions than their opponents, the Sydney Swans. They had only four more turnovers, and only three less inside 50s. Yet they lost by 76 points.

For the Hawks, it’s been a similar story throughout the season. They have averaged five more contested possessions per game, had about the same amount of possession chains (intercepts + clearances – turnovers) excluding kick-ins, and had similar inside 50s to their opponents so far this season. But they have only one win so far, against bottom team North Melbourne, and have on average scored five goals less than their opposition.

Part of it is their inaccuracy in front of goal, and part of it is their inefficiency in converting forward entries into scores. Hawthorn ranks second-last for points per scoring shot, and last for scoring shots per inside 50 in 2024. They are a lower-ranked, lower-expectation version of the problems that have plagued Brisbane this season.

This could be in part personnel. Of the forwards, Dylan Moore is well-known to be rated highly. But on the AFL Player Ratings the next best forward is Jack Ginnivan at #17, also indicating this is the area of the ground the Hawks are falling short in. On the positive side, if Hawthorn can get this part of their team right, the ‘rebuild’ may look and do somewhat better than many are currently giving credit for.

AFL Rankings: Round 6 2024

With the early byes over, we now have a better picture of where teams sit, at least in as much as all teams have played the same number of games and have the same number of games left.

Let’s look then at each team’s expected wins for 2024, and how that has changed over the first quarter of the season (see table below).

Improvers

Geelong are one of the notable big improvers, going from 13 to 17 expected wins, and from eighth on expected wins to first. The Cats still only sit fifth on the rankings, but they are on top of the current ladder with valuable wins in the bank.

Essendon had a poor end to season 2023, but they have performed much better at the start of 2024, moving from six to 10 expected wins. They are also pretty much killing the rankings’ predictions in the Squiggle leaderboard.

West Coast have dramatically improved over the past two weeks, with large wins over Fremantle and Richmond. They have improved from two to six expected wins, possibly ending their hopes of a priority draft pick but giving much-needed hope to supporters.

Decline

Adelaide, after being almost every ranking system’s ‘team that was unluckiest to miss the finals’ in 2023, have had a horror start to 2024, winning just one match and losing three matches at home. They have dropped from 14 to 10 expected wins, and – showing how even the middle teams are – from fourth on expected wins to 14^th.

Brisbane have also lost three games at home to start the season, albeit against three of the expected top six. They have dropped from 15 to 12 expected wins, going from second on expected wins to eighth.

Hawthorn, Richmond, and North Melbourne have won just two matches between them so far, and each have two less expected wins than they did at the start of the season.

AFL Rankings: Round 5 2024

After five rounds there are two undefeated teams – one which is not surprising in the GWS Giants, and one which is more surprising in Geelong. Are the Cats really a contender, or have they just had an easy fixture so far, or both?

Geelong have had a relatively friendly draw so far, playing no team higher than eleventh on the ladder or tenth on the rankings. Three of those victories were nonetheless quite impressive in terms of ‘raw’ points: a 75-point win against North Melbourne, a 36-point win against Hawthorn, and a 19-point away win against Adelaide.

Part of Geelong’s success though has been better-than-expected accuracy – the Bulldogs had a 12-point higher expected score when they lost to the Cats, Adelaide had a 5-point higher expected score, and Hawthorn were only 5 points less. On expected score, Geelong would have ‘only’ three wins and a percentage of 118, placing them more in the bottom part of the eight.

Those wins are ‘gold’ however for the Cats’ finals chances. In an even competition and with a relatively friendly draw still to come, Geelong is currently expected to finish in the top two. Obviously an unexpected loss or two would change that quite quickly. But for now the Cats do have some ‘wriggle room’ to make a return to the finals this year

AFL Rankings: Round 4 2024

AFL Rankings: Round 3 2024

Many people – including myself – expected the Adelaide Crows to move up the ladder in 2024, after narrowly missing out on the finals in 2023. The Crows finished tenth but had the fourth best percentage, with some dominant wins along with some close losses to top sides such as Collingwood (twice), Melbourne, and Sydney.

However Adelaide have had a disappointing start to the 2024 season, losing their first three matches to Gold Coast, Geelong, and Fremantle. Heavy rain at Carrara aside, the Crows have struggled to score – they have averaged the least scoring shots of any team so far, scoring on only 30 per cent of their inside 50s (league average 43 per cent).

Adelaide’s reduced offensive power has been in part due to a reduced ability to connect. The Crows have averaged only six marks inside 50 per game, and only five contested marks – again, affected by rain at Carrara, but still on average well below their opponents. They have averaged almost five more turnovers per game than any other team, with only bottom sides the Eagles and Kangaroos having higher turnover differentials. Adelaide’s kicking efficiency is the third-lowest in the league (64.6 per cent), which is even more hurtful given they have the fourth-highest kick-to-handball ratio. Captain Jordan Dawson – usually regarded as an excellent kick – has had a kicking efficiency of only 49 per cent so far this year, way down on his mark from last year of 65 per cent.

All that said, in terms of winning the ball and gaining territory the Crows have still been fairly sound. If they can clean up their disposal, they can still be an above average side, but they face a long road back to making the finals – particularly if they lose to Melbourne on Thursday night.

AFL Rankings: Round 2 2024

The Sydney Swans have got off to a good start to 2024, winning their first three games, including wins over 2023 finalists Collingwood and Melbourne. They have shot up to second place on the AFL ladder after finishing eighth last year, and up to third place on the rankings.

The Swans are not really getting the ball any more than their opponents, but they have been more effective when they have got it. They rank fifth so far for inside 50s per disposal, and fifth for points per inside 50. Sydney is getting the ball on the boot more often, increasing their kick-to-handball ratio from 1.5 in 2023 to 1.7. They are also curbing their opponents’ effectiveness, ranking sixth for opposition inside 50s per disposal. Many of their defensive statistics have been stellar – they rank fourth for average tackles, second for tackles inside 50, third for pressure acts, and third for spoils.

The player who has gained the most attention for this start is Isaac Heeney. With injuries to others Heeney has spent more time in the midfield, and leads the Swans with 15 contested possessions per game, eight clearances, and four centre clearances. In comparison, the injured Luke Parker led the Swans with averages of 11 contested possessions, five clearances, and two centre clearances last season. Further, Heeney has been more effective with his disposals, with 18 metres gained per disposal and kicking efficiency of 67 per cent per cent, compared with 11 metres and 56 per cent for Parker last season. Teams may start to work out how to restrict Heeney as the season progresses, but in that case the Swans just have a plethora of other midfielders they can turn to – including Parker when he returns – to best utilise Heeney’s talents.

The Swans were widely lauded for their off-season recruiting, bringing in former All-Australians Brodie Grundy and Taylor Adams, and premiership player James Jordon. Adams hasn’t played yet, but Grundy and Jordon have been important to Sydney’s greater emphasis on pressure, with Grundy among the top rucks for tackles and pressure acts. James Rowbottom has been the standout ‘stopper’ so far, with almost ten tackles and two tackles inside 50 per game.

After a slightly disappointing 2023, the Swans are on track to bounce bank and approach the heights of their 2022 Grand Final season. They are currently projected to win 16 games, behind only cross-town rivals the Giants. There will probably be some adjustments required once Parker, Adams, and Callum Mills return, but trying to fit in a bunch of talented players isn’t the worst problem to have.

AFL Rankings: Round 1 2024

For the first time ever, the two teams in the previous year’s Grand Final – Collingwood and Brisbane – have started the season with two losses. Weaknesses have been scrutinized, long bows are being drawn, but how bad is it really for last year’s top two teams?

First off, Brisbane were only two points away from winning their first match against Carlton – granted, giving up a 46 point lead isn’t encouraging, but they were moments away from currently being 1-1. Even then, Carlton’s accuracy is front of goal (13.8) helped them get over the line. Similarly, Collingwood were subject to exceptionally good accuracy in front of goal from their first-up opponent GWS (18.6).

Their second matches (in Round 1, naturally) were more concerning. Collingwood lost by five goals to Sydney, and didn’t look much like winning after the first quarter. Brisbane too fell away after the first quarter to lose by four goals to Fremantle.

Brisbane’s main concern so far has been converting forward entries into scores. They have had 21 more inside 50s than their opponents across their two games so far, but have had only two more scoring shots, and they rank fourth-last for scoring shots per inside 50. Two-time All-Australian forward Charlie Cameron has had a rough start to the year, with only 3.5 uncontested possessions per game (career average 6.5), and 45 per cent disposal efficiency (career average 63.7) – figures you would be almost sure he will improve upon.

Collingwood have been fairly even with their opponents across the board, except for one percenters – and obviously goals. Given the two teams they have faced – GWS and Sydney – may be the two most in-form teams at the moment, that could be viewed as slightly encouraging. In their premiership season too however, they were never really streets ahead of their opposition, with at most modest positive differentials in the main statistical categories, except notably accuracy in front of goal. Their performances so far may just indicate they were only a small step away from falling back into the pack.

That fine line extends now to the Lions’ and Magpies’ finals hopes. With the top half of teams closely bunched in terms of expected performance, a couple of losses now puts them in significantly more jeopardy of missing out. Conversely though, that also means it will only take a few wins to significantly improve their chances again. Grand Finals are obviously where everyone wants to end up, but they can exaggerate the gaps between teams – Collingwood and Brisbane were less the two dominant forces of last year than they were among a bunch of solid contenders that could have, without much surprise, made it through to the final week.

AFL Rankings: Opening Round 2024

For the rankings this year, I have made some slight adjustments to the home ground advantages. To come up with the new values, I had a look at win-loss records by state, historical betting odds and margins, and advantages in other ranking systems.

The 'default' home ground advantage has now been re-set to eight points. Matches between teams in the same city still have a home ground advantage of zero. At the other end, I've kept the advantage involving Western Australian teams - which involve much higher travel distances - at 12 points.

I've applied these new advantages to the 2023 results as well, so the ranking points for teams were slightly adjusted from the end of last year even before the 'opening round' matches.