After holding the number one
ranking spot for three weeks the Adelaide Crows are knocked off the top by the
Brisbane Lions, who beat them at home by three points over the weekend. However
the main consequence of this result is more likely to be to switch which club
will host the Grand Final rather than which clubs will get there.
For example, following the
Round 5 results the
FMI website estimates that Brisbane has a 97 per cent of finishing first or
second, and Adelaide has a 93 per cent chance. The Lions’ win on the weekend though
has increased their estimated chances of finishing first from 32 per cent to 66
per cent. (The chances based on my rankings would be different, but not by
much.)
Carlton and Melbourne are
not wholly without a shot, but it looks like we’ll see our first ever AFL Grand Final played outside of Victoria this year.
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