AFL Power Rankings: Round 21 2018

With just two more goals in the past two weeks Port Adelaide would currently be sitting in third position on the ladder. Being near the middle though may be a better reflection of where the Power are at.

History repeats for the Power, but this time they were less ‘unlucky’

The first two chapters of ‘Footballistics’, the AFL analysis book released a few months ago, recount how Port Adelaide lost a home elimination final last year, with an after-the-siren goal by West Coast.

Port Adelaide had been a better side than the Eagles throughout the year, and the book essentially argues they were probably a better side on the night as well. However they lost the match because they were unusually inaccurate in front of goal, and West Coast was the opposite. As a result West Coast finished in the ‘top six’ teams, and Port – though they had been close to finishing in the top four – finished in the ‘middle’ of the ladder in seventh.

This weekend history repeated as the Eagles again beat the Power after the siren at Adelaide Oval. This year though the result more likely reflected that West Coast may actually be the better team.  

The Eagles have improved somewhat in 2018, and currently sit second on the ladder, three wins ahead of Port. Also unlike last year, West Coast easily won the inside 50 count. That indicates this time around the Eagles won because they created more opportunities to score, not because they were uncannily accurate in front of goal.

Port Adelaide have generally been average in 2018

Defenders of Port Adelaide may point out that, with a three-point loss last week to Adelaide, and a four-point loss this week, the Power were only a couple of kicks away from now sitting third on the ladder. On the other hand Port has also won some close matches this year as well, including the first ‘Showdown’ against Adelaide. The Power have three wins and four losses this year in matches decided by 10 points or less, which is neither significantly ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’.

Below Richmond there has been a bunch of teams this year that have been pretty good. This includes West Coast, as well as three of the sides in the thick of the battle for third and fourth – GWS, Collingwood, and Hawthorn.

I’d also say it includes Geelong, despite the Cats currently sitting in ninth position – they’ve had a tough fixture, with having to play Richmond, Melbourne, Hawthorn, and Sydney twice. Melbourne and Sydney are a bit harder to pin down after the Swans’ win against the Demons on the weekend: Melbourne’s thrashed the weaker teams, while the Swans have generally struggled in recent weeks.

The Rankings don’t include Port Adelaide in that group. I’m not alone – the mathematically-minded consensus is that Port is ‘splashing about at sea level’. Returning back to a table I showed a few weeks ago the Power have had less ‘good’ and ‘very good’ performances than most of the other teams in the top eight (see table above).

The Power’s two best wins in 2018 have been against Sydney and Richmond. That is some progress from last year, when the Power were notoriously unable to beat teams in the top half of the ladder. But what they were able to do in 2017 was put away bad sides. Last season they had six wins by over ten goals – this year it has been none. Despite some decent recruits, the Power were probably a better team last year.

Port’s strengths: defence, and Robbie Gray

Port Adelaide’s defence in 2018 has been very good, with only Richmond having conceded less points. The Power currently lead the league in ‘one percenters’ (spoils mainly), with Dougal Howard recording the most of any player, and Tom Jonas near the top as well. Port has also conceded the least marks inside 50 of any team.

With Port though it is mainly a case of being decent, but not strong. Arguably they only have one ‘superstar’ at their position – the remarkable midfielder/forward Robbie Gray (maybe Paddy Ryder as well, when less hampered by injury). Gray got the Power over the line in the first Showdown this year with his six goals, and almost got them over the line with four goals in the other. Other than Gray they have a few pretty good players, including Ollie Wines, Justin Westhoff, Chad Wingard, and Travis Boak. It’s enough to keep them mid-range, but almost all of the top eight sides have more top-end talent than that.

The slither of hope: ‘do a Bulldogs’

In summary then Port Adelaide currently sitting in seventh is probably a fair reflection of their ‘true’ strength at the moment. Of course the ladder is so close that an upset win against Collingwood next week could considerably change the outlook for them. Otherwise though it looks like they will finish somewhere in the bottom rungs of the final eight, if they make it at all.

That actually puts them in a similar position to the Western Bulldogs when they won the premiership a couple of years ago. The Bulldogs’ amazing 2016 run though should be far from the preferred model for obtaining a premiership. More likely the Power will have an early exit, to be left wondering what else they can do to take the next step.