AFL WOMEN’S Power Rankings: Round 4 2019

The Western Bulldogs partially built their success last year on racking up effective disposals. This year, they have not been racking up as many disposals nor have they been as effective.

Last year’s AFLW premiers the Western Bulldogs are struggling. They have won two out of their four matches, but their percentage is only 67.4. Two weeks ago they were beaten by 31 points by ladder leaders North Melbourne. Much more surprisingly they were beaten by 32 points this week at home by the Brisbane Lions – last year’s runners-up who had seemed to be struggling themselves.

Disposals are still a good indicator of success in AFLW

Once upon a time in the men’s version of Australian Rules, you could usually tell who the good teams were by how many disposals they got. This has become less clear over the past two decades as teams have found ways to win with a variety of styles.

In the women’s game though the rule of thumb of a greater number of disposals bringing a greater amount of success still holds up pretty well. Last year, the four teams that scored more points than they conceded were Brisbane, Melbourne, Collingwood, and the Bulldogs, and those teams ranked first to fourth in average disposals per game (see graphs below). This year the three teams with the highest percentages, and the top three teams on my rankings – North Melbourne, Adelaide, and Melbourne – also lead the league in disposals. The Bulldogs meanwhile have fallen to second-last on the disposals ladder, and it has been reflected in a drop in their performances.

The Bulldogs are getting less uncontested possessions, and their efficiency is suffering

In 2018 the Bulldogs were not only good at getting the ball, but in using it effectively. They ranked second in disposal efficiency at 60.6 per cent, trailing only Collingwood. This year, they are in last spot at 55.9 per cent.

The Magpies and the Bulldogs last year were the only teams to record more uncontested possessions than contested possessions (see graphs below). In 2019 several teams have raised their uncontested to contested possession ratio, and their disposal efficiency is better for it. The Pies and Dogs meanwhile have gone in the opposite direction, and are getting less uncontested possessions – and perhaps as a result are more often missing their targets.

The average number of clangers per game by the Bulldogs has skyrocketed from 32.3 in 2018 to 46.7 this year. Further, their turnover differentials (turnovers less opposition turnovers) over their past three games are +7, +5, and +9. That’s at the kind of levels Carlton and Gold Coast were in the men’s league last year, and it spells death for being able to remain a top-line side.

Missing Emma Kearney, but there’s more going on

Last year’s AFLW best and fairest Emma Kearney was a high-profile departure from the Bulldogs when she joined North Melbourne for this year. Kearney averaged the most disposals in the league last year, and at an excellent efficiency rate of 60.5 per cent (see tables below).

Kearney isn’t the only highly productive player missing from last year’s Bulldogs team however. Jenna Bruton joined Kearney at North Melbourne and ruck Aasta O’Connor went to Geelong, while sadly forward Brooke Lochland is injured. All of these were in the Dogs’ top ten players for effective disposals last year.

Worse for the Bulldogs, their remaining top-line players have seen the quality of their ball use plummet. Major ball-winners Ellie Blackburn, Hannah Scott, and Monique Conti all have about as many clangers in half a season as they did over the entirety of last year (see tables above). Between them they are averaging 11.5 clangers per game, compared to 6.6 last season.

The struggles of their stars however are just symptomatic of the Dogs’ problems as a whole. Nearly everyone on the team is having more trouble with their ball use, at a time when the rest of league is improving in leaps and bounds.

The tips are struggling too

Below are the rankings’ predictions for next week, for what they’re worth. Last week the rankings managed to go 0-for-5 on its tips.

In fairness to the rankings, it did indicate that two of those matches – Geelong v Carlton, and Melbourne v North Melbourne – were 50-50 prospects, and that’s pretty much how they turned out; things just went slightly the ‘wrong’ way. Funnily enough, on my own personal tips I had decided to go the other way on those matches - that’s right, against the rankings’ predictions – giving me at least two winners for the week.