AFL WOMEN’S Power Rankings: Round 5 2019

The 2017 premiers the Adelaide Crows are B.I.T. (Back. In. Town.)

In 2017, the Adelaide Crows – led by their star trio of Erin Phillips, Chelsea Randall, and Ebony Marinoff – won the first-ever AFLW premiership. In 2018 however the Crows slumped to fifth. Erin Phillips, who was the 2017 AFLW best and fairest, was hampered by injury, missing two matches and spending more time forward when she was on the ground. More generally, Adelaide got less of the ball and got it forward to score less often, falling from second to seventh in average disposals, and from first to fifth in both average points and inside 50s (see table below).

The Crows are back to what they were good at, and much more besides

After a narrow first-up loss to the Bulldogs, where the Crows’ inaccuracy in front of goal cost them, Adelaide has powered through the league. In particular, in their past two weeks they have thrashed fellow finals contenders Fremantle by 42 points and North Melbourne by 35 points.

As they did in 2017, the Crows again rank first for average points, inside 50s, kicks, contested possessions, and marks inside 50 (see table above). The more remarkable aspect of their return to form however is their embrace of the art of handball. Adelaide have more than doubled their average number of handballs from last year, skyrocketing into first place on average handballs and disposals. They also now lead the league in uncontested possessions, after ranking only seventh in the previous two years.

Furthermore, the Crows are winning out in the clearances, and particularly the centre clearances. In general good teams are better at gaining possession through intercepts than through forcing and winning stoppages (think Richmond in the men’s league last year), but Adelaide is turning that guideline on its head. They have been fairly average at intercepts this year, and North Melbourne got nine more intercepts in their game on the weekend. It didn’t matter; the Crows forced the Roos into many more stoppages and blew them apart there instead.

Re-defining roles: The ex-basketballers, and Stevie-Lee

When a team improves this much across several statistical categories, it’s less likely to be down to the improvement of a few individuals. Nevertheless there are some players whose changed contributions are worth highlighting.

Last year Anne Hatchard played just four matches, and averaged the least minutes per game of any Adelaide player. This year she leads the entire league in handballs. By a lot. Hatchard is averaging over 13 handballs, four more per game than the next best player. (Marinoff is fourth, and has more than doubled her handballs per game.)

Another former basketballer Erin Phillips went last year from the best player in the league to merely the best midfielder-forward. This year, fully fit, she has been thrown back into the middle, where she has been a 5-foot-9 battering ram at the centre bounces. Fremantle’s Dana Hooker aside, Phillips has 70 per cent more centre clearances than anyone else. She’s also once again averaging over 20 disposals per game – after averaging just 12 in 2018 – while being among the leading goalkickers.

Speaking of goals, the unlikely leading goalkicker at this stage of the season is Stevie-Lee Thompson, with nine goals. Thompson played as a defender during her first two years, but the switch forward for her has worked wonders, as she has kicked two or more goals in three out of the five games. With her average disposal and mark count it’s not clear she’ll been able to sustain it, but so far it’s helped to make Adelaide’s attack effective again.

What has caused this massive turnaround? Is it the work of new coach Matthew Clarke, himself a proponent of height and handballs? Whatever it is, the Crows are ‘back in town’ and looking like perhaps the strongest team in the competition’s history.

(Just so you know, the rankings aren’t actually saying below that Adelaide is 100 per cent certain to beat GWS next week. Their estimated winning probability is actually 99.6 per cent.)