AFL Power Rankings: Round 2 2019

Geelong should be considered a serious premiership contender in 2019, and probably should have been even before the season started.

Geelong has started off the 2019 season well, beating last year’s runners-up Collingwood, and demolishing last year’s preliminary finalists Melbourne. The Cats are now clearly the highest‑ranked team on these Power Rankings. Their current ranking is around the level and as far ahead of every other team as Richmond’s was for most of 2018 – the Tigers being last year’s minor premiers, and premiership favourites heading into the finals.

Geelong finished eighth in 2018 with 13 wins, and was bundled out of the finals in the first week by Melbourne. It was fairly common in the pre-season ladder predictions for Geelong to be tipped to fall this year, or stay in the bottom part of the eight. The reasoning seemed to be mostly ‘fringe top 8 team last year’ + ‘aging stars’ = ‘possibly out of finals’.

Further analysis tells another story though. Geelong could be considered one of the teams most likely to rise in 2019, because its 2018 was much better than its final ladder position suggested.

Geelong was better in 2018 than many thought

Geelong finished the 2018 home and away season with ‘only’ 13 wins, but a percentage of 131.6, which was better than every team except Richmond. According to the ‘Pythagorean wins’ formula, a team with a percentage that high would usually win 16 matches. That number of wins would have got the Cats into second, with a home final against West Coast and a very different path through the finals.

As I said in my fixture preview, Geelong had a tough fixture last year. Their only ‘easy double-up’ was Gold Coast, while Collingwood – who won two more matches – got Brisbane, Carlton, and Fremantle twice. The Cats then copped Melbourne, also arguably one of those teams that should have finished higher than they did, in the first week of the finals.

Collingwood still obviously had a better finals series last year than Geelong did. When you consider their performances over the whole of 2018 though, Geelong’s first round win against Collingwood this year shouldn’t be seen as that surprising (and it wasn’t to the rankings).

The midfield that does stuff outside the middle

Ask the average football pundit about why Geelong are going well, and they are likely to say it’s because of their much-heralded midfield. On the face of it though, Geelong’s midfield wasn’t great last year. The Cats were ninth for average inside 50s per game in 2018. They were eighth for average clearances, and #17 for centre clearances. Yet they ranked fourth for points scored during the home and away season, and had the least points allowed – even less than Richmond.

This at first seems like somewhat of a puzzle. Are Tom Hawkins and the makeshift forward line, and the relatively no-name defence actually performing better than a midfield that includes Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett, Mitch Duncan, Sam Menegola, and Tim Kelly?

To answer this, let’s first look at a team like West Coast. The Eagles line up pretty much how you’d expect a good football team should. The midfielders get the possessions, the forwards kick the goals, the defenders spoil them, and the key defenders and key forwards take the contested marks.

Now let’s look at Geelong.

Midfielders like Dangerfield, Menegola, and Kelly make significant contributions on average to the score sheet, while Duncan often drops back into defence. (And good luck working out who the ‘true’ key defenders are, or who was playing centre half-forward last year.) Perhaps, as Champion Data’s AFL Prospectus suggested this means Geelong struggles for a consistent set-up, or perhaps it means they have more ‘tricks’ they can throw at teams. At the moment though, whatever it is, it seems to be working.

The Cats' recent finals record isn’t great, but it can be changed

The major criticism of Geelong is recent years has been their finals record after winning the 2011 premiership. They have won three out of 12 finals over that time, which has some people doubting their ability to win the flag, no matter how good their home and away record is.

Given the amount of turnover in AFL lists, you could argue that the current team should be evaluated more on their record over the past few years – say, since Patrick Dangerfield joined in 2016. Still that’s not great either. They are two wins and four losses in finals over that time, but three of those four losses came in matches that they would have been considered about a 50-50 chance in: Melbourne last year, Richmond in the 2017 Qualifying Final, and Sydney in the 2016 Preliminary Final.

I don’t think that means too much though. Teams that have been criticized for multiple finals failures have ‘suddenly’ turned their fortunes around, with perhaps the most notable examples in recent years being Richmond in 2017 and Port Adelaide in 2004.

The main concern is to keep getting up there and have a chance in the first place. The Cats are looking in good shape to do that once again this year.