AFL WOMEN’S Power Rankings: Round 7 2019

For a good team the Fremantle Dockers have had relatively few disposals this season. Helped by the long-awaited debut of Kiara Bowers though, they have still won the ‘battle of the midfield’ – by kicking long and putting the pressure on.

In AFLW the good teams generally tend to have more disposals. One exception is this season’s second-best performed team the Fremantle Dockers, who rank eighth for disposals. The Dockers have been very effective with the disposals they’ve had. They lead the league in both points per disposal (0.27), and inside 50s per disposal (0.18), at rates that are even better than league powerhouse Adelaide (see chart below).

Conversely, the Dockers have conceded 0.18 points per disposals, and 0.12 inside 50s per disposal. While that in itself is not remarkable, their own effectiveness when in possession means they have a very good inside 50 differential, despite getting a lower number of disposals than their opponents. In effect, they are winning the ‘battle of the midfield’ by more often getting the ball into their attack, even if they are not getting a high disposal count.

One thing that has helped them to contain opposition movement, including through the midfield, is their tackling. Fremantle leads the league in tackles, and this year they added one massive weapon in terms of pressuring their opponents.

Kiara Bowers – Best and Fairest?

Kiara Bowers was selected as a ‘marquee player’ by Fremantle for its inaugural AFLW season, but unfortunately missed the first two seasons with a knee injury. This year she finally made her debut and played a full season, and she has been a major reason why the Dockers have climbed up the ladder in 2019. According to Champion Data’s player rankings, Bowers had been the best-performed player this year as of Round 6, and she has to been given strong consideration (alongside Adelaide’s Erin Phillips) for the AFLW best and fairest award.

Bowers’ statistics mirror, and help explain, her team’s statistics, in that she is very good at gaining territory when she has the ball. This year the league leaders in metres gained are two of the leading disposals getters – Phillips, and Melbourne’s Karen Paxman – and defender Ash Brazill. Bowers ranks ‘only’ eleventh in disposals, but sixth in metres gained.

Although Bowers is one of the league’s leading contested possession winners, her metres per disposal and especially her kick-to-handball ratio resemble those of an ‘outside’ midfielder or rebounding defender (see table below). Phillips and Paxman rank highly in terms of metres per disposal for ‘inside’ midfielders as well, though they handball more often than Bowers does. Being able to win the ball and gain ground is a fantastic combination to have, as shown by Patrick Dangerfield and Dustin Martin in the men’s league.

Another part of what makes Bowers so important to Fremantle is her tackling. She has averaged an astounding 12 tackles per match in 2019, easily the league leader. Adelaide’s Ebony Marinoff – once considered the ‘gold standard’ for applying pressure – has averaged just over 8 tackles per match. With Bowers in the middle the Dockers have been sweeping the ball forward when they win it, and putting the clamps on their opponents going the other way.

I suspect that Erin Phillips will end up winning the AFLW best and fairest this year. Phillips’ ‘extra feature’, which is her goal-kicking, is probably more noticeable than Bowers’ defensive pressure. I can’t really quibble if the votes go to Phillips, but Bowers would also be a highly deserving winner.

Predictions for the finals: can anyone stop Adelaide?

Fremantle have had a very impressive season. They are still going to have a tough time beating Adelaide, who look even more like ‘the strongest AFLW team ever’ (note: in three seasons) than they did two weeks ago. The Crows smashed a good team in Melbourne by ten goals on the weekend, and one shudders to think what they may do to lowly-ranked Geelong at home in the finals this week.

I think the Dockers easily account for Carlton next week to make it into the Grand Final. It will be an upset of mammoth proportions if they can stop Phillips, Marinoff, and the Crows from claiming their second AFLW premiership. At least in Bowers and Dana Hooker they have two players that are as good a chance as anyone of matching Adelaide ‘in the coalface’.

And here’s the predictions for AFL (Men’s): Round 1…