AFL Power Rankings: Round 7 2019

Adelaide or Port Adelaide – who is the better South Australian team heading into next round’s Showdown?

Both are rated just above average

Both Adelaide and Port Adelaide are around the middle of the rankings, and rated slightly above average. Adelaide currently has a few more ranking points – 7.2 points compared to 3.9 points.

Both have performed slightly above average so far in 2019. Adelaide’s average net margin adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength is +4 (see chart below). Port Adelaide’s is a bit higher, at +8, boosted by its big win against reigning premiers West Coast in Perth.

Both have been among the most consistently ‘average’ teams over their past 22 matches. Port has had only five matches out of their past 22 where its adjusted net margin is either greater than 25 points or less than -25 points – the least of any side (see chart below). Adelaide has had the second least, with seven matches in those categories.

Adelaide: not yet back to 2017 levels

Adelaide was the best team for most of 2017, and very good in 2016 as well, but injuries hit the Crows hard last season. With more of their top players available they were a semi-popular pick to shoot back up the ladder this year.

The Crows are fairly well-placed so far in 2019, with four wins and three losses. They have been somewhat helped by a friendly fixture though, beating Sydney, St. Kilda, Fremantle, and Gold Coast. They lost at home to Hawthorn, and to a North Melbourne team that has dropped in standing.

Champion Data rated Adelaide’s list highly coming into the season: rating it second overall, and strong in attack, the midfield, and defence. That rating could be seen as a hangover from the 2017 season, with forwards Taylor Walker and Eddie Betts arguably past their peak. Injuries have also hit the Crows again – though nowhere near the extent of last season – with the team losing wing Paul Seedsman, and defender Tom Doedee.

Adelaide seems to have most of its midfield back and firing, but not quite to the same effect as the peak days of 2016-17. That 2017 team ranked highly in terms of contested possessions, clearances, and inside 50s. This year’s team ranks highly in disposals, but not in those other statistics. Instead, it’s the Crows’ cross-town rivals that seem to so far have taken their place among the top midfields.  

Port Adelaide: the resurgence of Travis Boak

At the end of Round 7, Port Adelaide leads the league in contested possessions, clearances, and inside 50s, and is third in disposals. Ex-captain and two-time All-Australian Travis Boak has returned to the midfield, and is in probably the best form of his career. Boak ranks sixth for contested possessions per game in 2019, ninth in clearances, tenth in inside 50s, and fifth in disposals. Boak’s resurgence, and that of Tom Rockliff, has helped the Power more than overcome the loss of Chad Wingard and Jared Polec to other clubs.

Not that the Power have significantly set the world on fire yet either, despite their four wins. As mentioned above, their best win for the season was easily beating West Coast in Perth. They also easily beat last year’s preliminary finalists Melbourne, but it’s not as impressive beating the Demons in 2019. Port beat Carlton and North Melbourne at home by relatively small margins, and lost to a depleted Richmond. 

Port’s defence – which was one of the stingiest in 2018 – has been merely average so far this season. Dougal Howard has performed well, but Tom Jonas had probably a career-best season last year, and he has dropped off a bit (and been injured).

The Power also haven’t been able to score efficiently from their weight of inside 50s, with Charlie Dixon out, Justin Westhoff not upping his points total as a more permanent forward, and star Robbie Gray having possibly his worst season to date in terms of effectively disposing of the ball. On the bright side, Robbie’s namesake Sam Gray has found some form. (Port’s also been a goldmine for fantasy football teams, with first-year players Zak Butters, Willem Drew, Xavier Duursma, Connor Rozee being permanent fixtures in the line-up. I had them all.)      

Who has the better outlook this year?

Other systems, on average, seem to think Port’s outlook is slightly better, and rate them slightly higher – see, for example, Matter of Stats and The Arc. That could be because other systems adjust to the new season a little quicker than mine, and/or because Port’s scoring shot differential is better.

I like Adelaide’s a little better, even before Port recently got hit by injuries. I think they’re a bit deeper, and have been a bit more consistent in their performances.

The rankings are tipping Adelaide by 3 points. Hopefully this week’s game is at great as the two Showdowns last year.