AFL Power Rankings: Round 8 2019

Through the first third of the season, the good teams seem to be Geelong, Collingwood, maybe GWS … and not much else.

We are eight rounds – or one-third of the way – into the 2019 season, and each team has played almost half the competition. We should therefore have a fair idea who is playing well this year and who is not.

Nevertheless, some teams have had significantly easier fixtures than others so far (see table below). Therefore, there are a few things about the current ladder where the rankings agree and others where the rankings think the ladder is misleading us a little.

Geelong, who is one win clear on top of the ladder, has been clearly the most impressive team in 2019 to date. Not only do the Cats have the highest average net margin, they have done it with the hardest fixture. Among Geelong’s opponents have been Collingwood, GWS, Essendon, Adelaide, West Coast, and Hawthorn, giving the Cats an eight point disadvantage per game compared to an average fixture. Adjusting for estimated opponent strength (and home ground advantage) gives Geelong an average net margin of +38 per game, which is right up there with many premiership teams.

Collingwood sits second on both the ladder and the rankings. The rankings do not think the Magpies are a great side yet, but at least they’re good, which makes them the Cats’ main challengers almost by default. Their fixture is rated as having been about average so far (although they have struggled to beat their weaker opponents such as Carlton), suggesting that where they currently sit is a reasonable indication of where they are at.

Adelaide and GWS sit third and fourth on the ladder, with the same number of wins and similar percentages. The rankings though think the Giants are the more impressive team, having had the harder fixture. GWS has played Geelong and West Coast away, Richmond, Essendon, and Hawthorn. Adelaide has played Geelong and Hawthorn, but otherwise Port Adelaide has probably been its only decent opponent.

There are ten sides that have between three and five wins, and which the rankings think have performed fairly similarly. Their average adjusted net margins in 2019 have been between about plus one goal and minus one goal per match. Essendon is considered to have had a relatively tough fixture so far, having played the top three ranked sides, and therefore it may potentially be better than their ladder position suggests (though the Bombers’ loss on the weekend to Sydney was hardly impressive). The Western Bulldogs, in contrast, have had a relatively easy fixture, having played (and lost to) both Gold Coast and Carlton.   

Finally, there are five teams that the ladder and the rankings both rate as having by far the worst seasons. These are: Gold Coast, Melbourne, Sydney, North Melbourne, and Carlton. All of these teams have a percentage of 85 or under; no other team has a percentage of less than 93. The rankings still rate Melbourne, Sydney, and North Melbourne as not too bad overall, because of their 2018 performances. On 2019 form alone though they are a long way back from the rest of the pack.