AFL Power Rankings: Round 15 2019

North Melbourne has improved its performances considerably in the four matches since Rhyce Shaw became coach, but it is not quite the season’s most ‘out of the box’ month-long stretch.

From Brad Scott to Rhyce Shaw and upwards

Around the time of North Melbourne’s Round 10 match against the Western Bulldogs, coach Brad Scott – the team’s coach for almost a decade – decided to leave the club mid-season. Despite their win against the Dogs, the Kangaroos at the time had only three wins from ten matches. Following Scott’s departure assistant coach Rhyce Shaw was named as the ‘caretaker’ for the rest of the season.

Since Shaw’s appointment, North Melbourne has gone from a below average team to one of the league’s better sides. It has beaten two of last year’s top four teams – Richmond and Collingwood – by around 40 points each. It also comfortably beat the Gold Coast Suns, with its only loss coming to GWS. The Kangaroos have surged on the rankings, gaining two goals worth of ranking points, and jumping from fourteenth to seventh.

This turnaround must be due to Rhyce Shaw, right? Give him the permanent coaching gig! Well, it could be the case that Shaw’s coaching is largely responsible for turning the Kangaroos’ performances around. But four-week stretches such as these, where a team performs significantly better than it has done for the rest of the season, are not unheard of.

The Kangaroos’ hot form is unusual, but not overly so

North Melbourne’s recent jump in form, compared to its overall performances for the season, is arguably not even the ‘hottest’ four-round stretch this season. Based on my adjusted net margins, that could be St. Kilda during Rounds 2 to 5 (see table below).

The Saints were not as good as North have been, but compared to their overall season form (not great) it was a pretty good stretch. They beat Melbourne easily, beat Essendon and Hawthorn, and came within a goal of beating Fremantle playing away. Since that stretch though, sixth-year coach Alan Richardson has come under ever-increasing media scrutiny about his job security.

Essendon also had a similarly improved stretch during Rounds 3 to 6, when they thrashed North Melbourne and Brisbane, beat Melbourne, and almost beat Collingwood. Their coach, John Worsfold, is in his fourth year at the club. And the other team I rate as having a big jump in form is Sydney during their recent climb up the ladder, with a coach – rumoured Kangaroos coaching target John Longmire – that has been in charge for almost a decade.

In the end though, it’s not the improvement for North Melbourne that matters most, but the level that it is playing at. The Kangaroos’ average adjusted net margin over their past four matches is over four goals. If a Rhyce Shaw-led side can consistently play at that level, then North Melbourne should be more than happy with where they are at.