AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 1 2020

In the first week of the 2020 AFLW season: the ‘old’ teams establish a gap between them and the ‘new’ sides, the gap to the Crows closes, and some contenders come away with important wins.

Welcome to the AFLW…

Four teams had the joy of playing their first-ever match in the AFLW on the weekend, but three of them at least showed they may still have a ways to go to match it with the established sides.

In the opening match of the season, Richmond conceded the first five goals against Carlton before eventually going down by 34 points. The Blues played a large part of the game in possession of the ball in their forward half, having 74 (about 50 per cent) more disposals than the Tigers, over twice as many (27 to 12) clearances, and four times as many (44 to 11) inside 50s. If not for inaccuracy in front of goal, this could have been a huge win for Carlton. Perhaps some hope for Richmond lies in the fact that the Blues themselves suffered a big loss in their opening match last season, before fighting back all the way to the Grand Final.

West Coast went down by 27 points against Collingwood, with 47 less disposals than the Magpies. Meanwhile St. Kilda lost by 25 points to the Western Bulldogs, with 36 less disposals. In those two matches, the big differences were in the number of uncontested possessions and disposal efficiency, indicating that the more established teams are currently cleaner in their ball use. The other new side Gold Coast also had this issue, but the weather perhaps kept the Giants from taking full advantage. Only four players each for Richmond, West Coast, and Gold Coast recorded double figures for disposals, and most of them were those that had played AFLW before.

For all of the handwringing about the new teams ‘poaching’ players from the league’s foundation clubs, they may be a year or two away from providing stern competition yet.

The Crows lose first up, but some good signs are still there

So much for being a near certainty to win… the Adelaide Crows lost their very first match of the season to the Brisbane Lions, and were never even close to winning. I went through last week why the Crows probably were not as strong as the rankings thought, but it was still a substantial upset. Without injured co-captains Erin Phillips and Chelsea Randall, do the Crows look to be in trouble?

Yes and no. Adelaide had 33 more disposals than the Lions – including an astonishing 35 disposals from Anne Hatchard – and 12 more inside 50s. Those types of numbers should win a team more games than they lose. But of some concern is that the Crows did not convert well from inside 50, or defend well when Brisbane got the ball forward. Without their best goalkicker (Phillips) and best intercept defender (Randall), there is some reason to think that could continue to be a problem this year. Still, they should have enough to again be contending at year’s end. (And the rankings have them as ‘near certainties’ to win again next week.)

Early wins are important come season’s end

With only eight matches in the season, every win in AFLW is like gold, and the finals picture can change substantially from week to week. Unlucky in past seasons, Melbourne scored a crucial two-point win against the Kangaroos, on the back of two goals from Kate Hore. The Demons’ likely rivals Carlton and Fremantle also won, but this year there is room for all three teams to make the finals. On the other hand, Conference B looks to be shaping up as the stronger conference, with the Magpies and Bulldogs also winning.

Brisbane is now considered the likeliest third Conference A finalist behind Adelaide and the Kangaroos, replacing Richmond. As great as their first performance was though, it is questionable whether the young Lions can keep up that level of performance, potentially making the third Conference A position the spot where another new finalist can slip through.